A whopping 38 gubernatorial races will be on ballots from coast to coast over the next two years, races that will shape a long list of hot-button political issues and the directions of both political parties after the 2024 presidential election.
These include two elections in 2025, in New Jersey and Virginia, that could offer early clues about how voters are responding to the first year of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term.
In 2026, there will be three dozen gubernatorial elections, including in six of the seven presidential battleground states, and at least another half-dozen that are expected to be competitive. The year’s slate of contests also includes 16 open contests where incumbents are term-limited. And maneuvering between potential candidates is already underway ahead of the Christmas season.
Two big races in 2025
Just weeks after Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump, Democrats are already looking ahead to two gubernatorial races that could help the party regain momentum.
New Jersey and Virginia have been consistently Democratic at the presidential level, although Trump made significant gains among voters in both in November.
In Virginia’s race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, primaries in both parties have centered on two women, meaning the state will likely have its first female governor after the 2025 election.
On the Republican side, Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the favorite. The only other declared Republican candidate is investigative journalist Merle Rutledge, whose candidacy is considered a long shot. Earle-Sears is the first Black woman to hold statewide office in Virginia and is endorsed by Youngkin.
For Democrats, Rep. Abigail Spanberger is the only declared candidate and is not expected to face any major challengers in the primary. Both parties will hold their primaries on June 17.
In New Jersey, the primary is already crowded for both parties in the race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
More than six high-profile Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination, including U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, and Sean Spiller, the state president. teachers union.
Gottheimer has represented his northern New Jersey district since 2017 and has served as co-chair of the bipartisan “Problem Solvers Caucus,” which helped craft the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the Chips and Science Act, and a security bill. of weapons.
Sherrill, a retired Navy helicopter pilot who has represented her northern New Jersey district since 2019, was endorsed by EMILY’s List, a group that supports women who support abortion rights.
More than four Republicans have declared their candidacies, including former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli, who lost the 2021 general election to Murphy, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former state Sen. Edward Durr and conservative talk show host Bill Spadea.
New Jersey’s primary election has not yet been scheduled, but it could be the first for the state’s gubernatorial election without “county line” (a primary voting design that gives an advantage to candidates who received the backing of the voters). county political parties) after a The judge rejected its use following a lawsuit by Andy Kim during his successful US Senate campaign.
Democrats lost ground in New Jersey and Virginia in the presidential race. Harris won Virginia by just 5.7 percentage points, about half Joe Biden’s margin of victory four years earlier. Similarly, Harris won New Jersey by 5.9 points after Biden won the state by 16 points in 2020. Her victory in New Jersey was the narrowest victory in a presidential race by a Democrat in the state in 32 years.
Democrats suggested that their eventual nominees in both races would focus on “core” issues that could help them appeal to all parties.
“Our party always has more work to do and every state is different,” Democratic Governors Association spokesman Sam Newton said in an interview. “At the same time, I think we’ll see Democrats run on core issues that impact families every day, like affordability, improving education, keeping families safe, while also defending fundamental freedoms.”
Newton also said the election could offer a look at whether voters in each state, who swung dramatically toward Trump last month, are happy with his first months in office, as well as the Republican trifecta in Washington, DC.
“Democratic governors have shown that you can compete and win everywhere when you talk about everyday issues that affect families and defend fundamental freedoms,” Newton said, pointing to Democratic gubernatorial victories in North Carolina this year and in Kentucky last year. “The contrast with the Republicans could be much starker with Donald Trump and the Republicans in control of the White House. … Republicans being in control in DC really raises the stakes, because it means that electing and re-electing Democratic governors in the states will be our best path to progress.”
Republicans, for their part, expressed optimism that a message focused on the cost of living and education would boost their eventual nominees in both states.
“Voters across the country have shown that they support common-sense, conservative leadership that focuses on meaningful change and competent governance, and that’s exactly what Republican governors are doing in their states every day,” he said. Republican Governors Association spokeswoman Courtney Alexander. “We look forward to competitive races over the next two years as we work to elect even more Republican governors.”
2026 battlefields
Meanwhile, 2026 will feature gubernatorial elections in 36 states, including a half-dozen presidential battlegrounds.
In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who won her 2022 election by just 17,000 votes, is almost certain to face a tough re-election bid.
In Georgia, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited. Republican state Attorney General Chris Carr became the first major candidate from either party to jump into the race in November.
The race in Michigan will also be wide open, as Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will be term-limited. And the race to replace her quickly became complicated after Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat, announced he would run for the seat as an independent.
“The current system forces people to choose sides, not to find solutions. “I want to see if I can change that,” he said in his campaign announcement video.
Duggan is the first major candidate to launch a campaign, although the Democratic primary is expected to be crowded. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (who moved with his family to the Traverse City area in 2022) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow are among the possible Democratic contenders.
In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who won his 2022 race by just 15,000 votes, will look to keep his seat in a swing state that has become even more competitive in recent years. (During the previous two midterm gubernatorial cycles, 2018 and 2022, Nevada was the only state where control changed in both years.)
In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, 73, must first decide whether to run for a third term. No candidate has entered the race from either side in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, a potential 2028 presidential contender, will run for re-election in a key battleground.
Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are among five states where Democratic governors will compete for re-election where Trump won the 2024 presidential race.
Fifth is Kansas, a reliably Republican state where Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly nevertheless won two terms as governor. Republicans see the seat (Kelly is term-limited and no candidate has yet entered the race) as their biggest opportunity for change.
2026 Open Races
In addition to Georgia, Michigan and Kansas, gubernatorial elections in 13 other states will be open, with incumbents facing term limits.
Democrats will seek to retain gubernatorial seats in California, Colorado, Maine and New Mexico, while Republicans will try to do so in Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wyoming.
While many of these races, which will take place in solidly red or blue states, will not be competitive in the general election, the primaries will offer revealing windows into the future for both parties.
For example, the race to replace California Governor Gavin Newsom, considered a possible presidential candidate in 2028, already features some big Democratic names. They include Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Senator Toni Atkins, former state Comptroller Betty Yee and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Additionally, Harris and outgoing Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra have been considered potential entrants as they consider their next steps following the departure of the Biden administration.
A similar scenario could play out in Florida in the race to succeed Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is also term-limited. No high-profile names have entered the race yet, although former Rep. Matt Gaetz and current Rep. Byron Donalds are among the Republicans who have topped recent lists of potential candidates.
