Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the previous day that killed 38 people and injured the 29 survivors.
The Kazakhstan Airlines Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. , after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane fell about three kilometers from Aktau. Mobile phone footage circulating online appeared to show the plane making a steep descent before crashing to the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other images showed a part of its fuselage torn from the wings and the rest of the plane lying face down on the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-mast on Thursday. Traffic stopped at midday and sirens sounded on ships and trains as a moment of silence was observed across the country.
At a news conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the reasons for the crash, but said weather had forced the plane to change its planned course.
“The information I have been given is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.
Russia’s civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia said preliminary information indicated the pilots were diverted to Aktau after a bird strike caused an onboard emergency.
Authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia remained silent about the possible cause of the crash, but an Azerbaijani lawmaker blamed Moscow. Rasim Musabekov told Azerbaijan’s Turan news agency that the plane was attacked while flying over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.
“Those who did this should face criminal charges,” Turan quoted Musabekov as saying, adding that compensation should also be paid to the victims. “If it doesn’t happen, relationships will suffer.”
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of the Mangystau region, the wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
As the official investigation into the crash began, some experts noted that holes seen in the tail section of the plane could indicate that it could have been attacked by Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions of the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack in the region was repelled on Wednesday, although federal authorities did not report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said analysis of images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM. .
“There is much more to investigate, but at a high level we would put the probability that it was a SAM attack on the plane in the range of 90-99 percent,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security company, warned its clients that “the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides an analysis of airlines still flying to Russia after Western airlines suspended flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defense systems on Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson posted online. “It is painful to know that, despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been prevented.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane’s tail reveal damage consistent with shrapnel from small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It appears that the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it is still unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane’s systems continued to function for some time and the crew believed they could arrive and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing elsewhere in Russia.
The national flag of Azerbaijan at half-mast in memory of the victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 that crashed near Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, is seen in central Baku, Azerbaijan, on December 26, 2024. (Aziz Karimov/AP Photo)
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good connections to the government, also claimed that the plane was attacked by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it approached Grozny. He questioned why Russian authorities did not close the airport despite the apparent drone attack in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya’s Security Council, said air defenses shot down drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also questioned why Russian authorities did not allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other nearby Russian airports after being hit.
When asked about claims that the plane had been attacked by air defense means, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be a mistake to formulate hypotheses before investigators give their verdict.”
The speaker of Kazakhstan’s parliament, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on photographs of the plane fragments, calling accusations of air defense fire unfounded and unethical.
According to Kazakh officials, those traveling on the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian citizens, six Kazakh nationals and three citizens of Kyrgyzstan. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry brought nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment on Thursday.
——
Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.