WASHINGTON-
The shocking and stunning collapse of the House of Assad in Syria underscores the volatile and fragile landscape that awaits Donald Trump as he prepares to retake power.
Looming tensions, war zones, and a new cast of global players create a complicated concoction of foreign policy issues that Donald Trump will be forced to confront from day one.
As he strives to fulfill his campaign promise to “Make America Great Again,” the 47th president of the United States will have to bend an unforgiving geopolitical ecosystem to his will if he is to achieve his goal.
Success depends on a deft hand, guided by a deep understanding of the motivations behind the international actors looking back at you.
The path is fraught with danger, and the landmines that await could severely undermine Trump’s ambitions with the slightest miscalculation.
Without a doubt, the challenges are many, but here are perhaps the most obvious ones competing for your immediate attention.
Loop
A file photo of a graffiti wall depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a handprint on his face in Gaza City on June 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)
The war in Gaza continues to rage unchecked. The Biden administration has failed to quell the ongoing conflict precipitated by the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, in which dozens of people were killed and hundreds taken hostage.
To date, more than half of the hostages have been killed, but more than 100 remain in captivity. The region has become more volatile since Trump left office, returning many of Israel’s neighbors more, not less, hostile than when he left office.
In fact, Saudi Arabia, a close and trusted partner during Trump’s first term, has effectively ended any efforts to normalize relations with Israel in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, the recent collapse of the Assad dynasty leaves a huge void in a country teetering on the brink of failure.
The president-elect has already signaled his intention to withdraw from participating in Syria’s reconstruction efforts, but doing so could offer an opportunity for America’s enemies, particularly Iran and ISIS, to reshape a government hostile to the West.
Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron, center, poses with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, left, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the Elysee Palace on Dec. 7, 2024 in Paris (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard )
There is no other foreign conflict that the president-elect has influenced as much as the ongoing war in Ukraine. Throughout the presidential campaign, Trump boasted that he was able to end the war before even taking office.
Now, just weeks before they are sworn in, there is still no sign that Putin or Zelensky will lay down their arms. Trump has proposed that Ukraine accept permanent annexation of some territories and give up any ambition to join NATO.
To be sure, President Joe Biden’s decision to give Ukraine the green light to deploy US-supplied weapons on Russian territory will certainly complicate Trump’s hopes for a quick deal.
Additionally, the Biden administration’s aggressive effort to withdraw the remaining $8 billion in military aid appropriated by Congress, combined with the recent $20 billion loan to the beleaguered nation backed by seized Russian assets, gives President Zelensky a greater incentive to fight rather than surrender. This last-minute windfall, coupled with Russia’s most recent setback in Syria, could force the president-elect to renege on a signature campaign promise.
Asia-Pacific
In this June 29, 2019, file photo, U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)
Along with the United States’ largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, Trump is also preparing for a trade war with the world’s second largest economy, China. The tense tensions come as the two nations have had frosty relations since Trump’s first term. Trump still blames China for the spread of COVID-19.
The virus decimated the United States under Trump’s first presidency, killing more than a million Americans. The president-elect has criticized China with racist and degrading language and even threatened to deport Chinese Americans since his re-election.
However, beyond bridging the US-China divide, it remains to be seen whether Trump will continue to foster regional cooperation with US allies, including South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Japan has expressed its willingness to cooperate with the trilateral group formed by Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom (AUKUS), however, it is unclear how far the Trump administration is willing to go to foster the trilateral group.
Perhaps equally questionable is Trump’s level of commitment to defending Taiwan from a bellicose China. The Biden administration recently allocated more than $300 million in military aid to Taiwan. Still, in the era of ‘America First,’ it seems highly unlikely that the Trump administration will respond to continued aggression from Beijing or North Korea over the next four years.
Latin America
Trump’s contempt and anger for his own backyard is palpable. His complete disdain for Latin America was on display for much of his first term. The next four years will be no different. The threat of mass deportations is very real, as evidenced by the return of trusted advisors, including Stephen Miller and Tom Homan, who are already telegraphing the relentless nature of what is to come.
The Trump transition team’s plans to deport immigrants to third countries, including the Bahamas and other South American nations, without his support, foreshadow the brutal fighting to come.
Donald Trump speaks at a press conference at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on October 25, 2024 in Austin, Texas (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Mexico is already in the crosshairs of its new leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is desperately trying to find ways to de-escalate a brewing trade war. Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro is also hoping for a US reset after the first Trump administration refused to recognize his false election victory over Juan Guido, leading to brutal sanctions against the oil-rich nation.
The Trump administration is expected to renew its call to end all aid to Golden Triangle countries to incentivize their leaders not to allow their citizens to make the dangerous journey to the United States. Without stopping there, throughout the presidential campaign, Trump continually threatened cartels and illicit drug-producing nations with military intervention.
Now, with unlimited power and all the levers of government authority at his disposal, there is nothing to stop the 47th president from carrying out this very real and sinister threat.
Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former United States Congressional staffer. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.
