After the important majority victory of Doug Ford in Ontario, one might think that conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would be running to take advantage of the prime minister in search of help to win the crucial province of the battlefield in federal elections.
Pailievre, however, said he has not approached the progressive conservative leader of Ontario for his aid. Meanwhile, Ford indicated that he will not publicly support any of the candidates, insisting that he will remain outside the campaign to focus on his province.
Ford was out of federal campaigns of 2019 and 2021. But part of his reluctance to campaign for a conservative partner in this election can be motivated by friction between the two leaders, some analysts say. And it could also be rooted in the perception that the first minister of Ontario sees little political gain by helping Pailievre.
“It would be of great benefit to Poilievre. I don’t think Ford see a lot in him for himself,” said Andrea Lawlor, associate professor of Political Science at McMaster University.
Ontario will always have a ‘seat on the table’
Ford does not risk being ignored by Pailievre if he won, he said.
“Ontario will always have a seat on the table,” Lawlor said. “I think that in the case of Ford in particular, he has shown that he will work with anyone who has the same policy objectives. And I think they are currently aligned with [Liberal Leader Mark] Carney as they would be with Poilievre. “
Ontario, with its 122 seats, will be the key to electoral victory again. It seems that he is interested in Ford to help a conservative partner as Pailievre Secure Victoria. And, that it would be interesting to Poilievre to make a significant effort to obtain Ford’s support.
“Why wouldn’t Doug Ford hook yourself to your car?” Julie Simmons, associate professor of Political Science at the University of Guelph said.
However, until now, there seems to be no effort to join forces. In fact, Pailievre denied a story of Toronto Star that he had recently called Ford looking for his help. Ford also denied that Pailievre was looking for help, but said he told the conservative leader that he would remain outside the federal elections.
When asked last week about how to campaign for Pailievre, Ford said that “he will not help anyone. That is not my job.”
He added that his priority is to keep Ontario moving forward. As for whether their MPP could help federal conservatives, he said they will be “absolutely flooded” to fulfill their mandates and that they should focus on Ontario.
Ford did not say if he would have a better relationship with Pailievre or Carney, but insisted that “work with anyone.”
But he admitted that “it is not secret” that has developed close relations with some federal ministers of the liberal cabinet, including Chrystia Freeland and Dominic Leblanc.
“I don’t know any of them, to be very frank,” Ford said about Pailievre and Carney.
This morning, I met Mark Carney, the incoming prime minister of Canada for a positive and productive discussion. We agree on the need to remain firm and strong in the face of the threats of President Trump, including additional retaliation rates in response to US tariffs about steel … pic.twitter.com/tank8w2fnj
However, Ford met Carney in March before he swore as a breakfast prime minister at an Etobicoke restaurant. He praised Carney as a “gentleman” who has an “extremely cunning commercial mind” and “understands the numbers.”
Ford suggested that the recent phone call with Pailievre was the first time he contacted Prime Minister since Pailievre became a conservative leader in 2022.
‘Love was not lost’
The fact that Pailievre had apparently waited weeks to congratulate Ford for his victory raised his political eyebrows.
“I think, surely, love between the two is not lost,” Simmons said. “I think the lack of cooperation comes more from Ford side than the Poilievre side.”
But that lack of cooperation can also reflect the different type of conservative that each man represents, Simmons said.
“[Poilievre] It is more to the right than the inhabitants of Ontario are traditionally as conservatives, “Simmons said.
Lawlor agreed that both offer different threads of conservative policy in Canada, and that Ford is more a pragmatic, a “public dissemination populist” who sees his work as a wide constituency.
“While the Pailievre conservatism brand is more ideological and oriented to values,” he said.
“They are not enemies, but they are not natural allies.”
However, there have been reports on bad blood among the progressive conservatives of Ontario and federal conservatives, which criticize their provincial counterparts for not being conservative enough.
But tension is also reported between the veteran conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, who administered the recent re -election of Ford, and the main strategist of Poilievre, Jenni Byrne.
Teneycke was recently made public to exploit the federal campaign, saying that he was going to defeat unless he turned and focused on the president of the United States, Donald Trump.
A conservator suggested to CBC News that the tension, not only between Teneycke and Byrne, but also among the conservative leaders of Ontario and Federal, is equivalent to a “civil war” within the conservative movement.
Kathy Brock, professor of policy studies at Queen’s University, said it could be “dangerous for both parties” that Ford actively campaigned for Pailievre.
She said that Pailievre may not think that he needs Ford to win the suburban lots in the Metropolitan Area of Toronto, and that Ford offers no advantage to bring votes from urban areas such as Toronto or Ottawa.
As for Ford, she said she can have difficulty criticizing Pailievre as prime minister if she had supported him.
“Suddenly, he will have to turn his back on his ally. That is not Doug Ford and not how people want to see Doug Ford,” he said.
“If Carney enters, well, he has burned an important bridge and will probably suffer for that.”
