In a casse-croet on the southern coast of Montreal, Anne-Marie Pinot prepares for a poutine at lunchtime. She has voted for political parties throughout the spectrum over the years, but this time, she is voting for the Québécois block.
Pinot is concerned about the threat raised by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, but Quebec’s concerns could forget in commercial negotiations without a strong local voice. Her 18 -year -old daughter, also defender of the block, motivated her to get more involved with the Sovereign Party.
“The idea is to protect Quebec’s economy,” said Pinot, after taking a selfie with the Yves-François Blanchet bloc leader, who stopped for a photograph in the very disputed driving of Longueuil, Saint-Hubert, where the surveys suggest that the liberals are in a tight race with the Denis block of Blog of Blog Incumbent.
Pinot’s argument reflects what Blanchet has been trying to convey to voters, in what has proven to be a challenging campaign for the Sovereign Party.
The shadow projected by Trump has advanced in Quebec, where identity and culture issues have not been as present as in previous campaigns, said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice president of the Voting Firm Leger.
“In the last electoral cycles, it was easier to execute in identity problems. That really gave the block an advantage compared to other parts,” said Dallaire.
“Without this, as people speak more generally about the economy, how to defend Canada against threats from the United States, it was much more difficult for the block to really make their voice heard in that context.”
Block the launch: ‘We will be a responsible partner’
The latest opinion surveys show that the liberals could win up to 45 of the 78 seats in the province, with the block in a distant second place with between 19 and 26 years, according to CBC’s Survey tracker.
In the 2021 elections, the liberals won 35 seats, compared to 32 for the block.
The tracker suggests that conservatives could win between 12 and 14, compared to 10 in 2021. The NDP expects to hold on to its solitary seat in Quebec, with Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Blanchet has recognized that the liberals could form the next government and has tried to argue that the block needs enough seats to represent the interests of Quebec in Ottawa.
“I don’t want to be prime minister, but I can offer to be a partner, a responsible partner, a collaborative partner,” Blanchet said during the English debate, emphasizing the need for the next federal government to protect the aluminum industry of the province of tariffs, as well as French language and culture.
“If we are respected, we will be partners, and then Canada will be stronger in its negotiation with Donald Trump.”
The two main parties have also tried to underpin the support. Liberal leader Mark Carney spent a day in Quebec during the last week of the campaign.
In Trois-Rivières, another very disputed driving, Carney said that the French language and identity management and supply are not “negotiable” against Trump.
“As long as I am the prime minister, those fundamental components of our society and the economy of Quebec and the economy of every Canada will never be questioned,” he said.
The conservatives seem to have a strength in the area of the city of Quebec, where Pierre Poilievre announced the “Quebec platform” of its game last month. Pailievre has said that it would protect the autonomy of Quebec and the French language and reduce the number of non -permanent residents in the province by 50 percent, a demand by Prime Minister François Legault.
As the party leaders conclude their releases, analysts say that Trump’s influence is still hanging on the campaign.
“Even if Trump could be less central in the debates now, there is a created path, one that is favorable for liberals, and the block and conservatives have not really been able to change that path,” said Daniel Béland, professor of Political Science and director of the McGill Institute for the study of Canada.
While the choice began dominated by a single problem, pollsters say that the conversation has diversified to some extent between voters.
Trump and other problems
Electoral campaigns tend to start with policies and numbers, and turn to emotion near the end of a campaign, but in this case, Trump’s threats turned the script, Dallaire said.
“Now it is more a calculating and more rational ending for a campaign,” he said.
The affordability remains a big problem, but inflation could get worse if a commercial war intensifies with the United States
“He presents concerns about his work and the well -being of his family,” said Dallaire.
“All these things are closely intertwined.”
In Longueuil this week, several residents said that the cost of living was among their main concerns.
“I am a student, so everything is really expensive,” said Marianne Boisclair, adding that the environment was also a main concern.
Robert Lauzon, who supports the block, said his priorities are the “safe economy and the place for Quebec in Canada.”
On his way to the mall with his newborn, Evelyne Gauvin said that support for families and the environment were important. But the president of the United States “remains part of the debate.”
“And I think he will be there until the end of his mandate,” he added.
With that in mind, the block could be especially vulnerable, they suggest the surveys, and what happens with its counting count could tip the balance.
“How much can the block maintain? That may well decide if we have a majority or minority government,” said Dallaire.
