While Prime Minister Doug Ford insists that the tariff threat of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, is the reason why he is calling for an election 15 months earlier than expected, there are many reasons why the moment is politically advantageous for Ford and his Ontario PC party.
Ford will visit the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario today to make the formal request that the provincial campaign began, with the day of the elections seen on February 27.
Here is why calling the elections now helps progressive conservatives, with ideas from party experts.
1. Campaign preparation
Although the rumors of early elections began to turn last May when Ford first refused to rule out a pressure vote, there is evidence that the other parts are not as lists as the PCs to dispute an choice.
The PC exploited the other parts outside the water in the collection of funds in 2023 and 2024. That money helps pay the necessary advertising to reach voters during the campaign and supports the work of dissemination and collection of data from the voters that It is crucial to win elections.
As for the surveys, the organizers of the PC campaign would not have pressed for the early call if they felt that their survey numbers were not in a strong way in relation to the NDP of Marit Stiles and the liberals of Bonnie Crombie.
Ontario has announced $ 1.4 billion in new funds to connect each Ontario resident with a primary medical care provider for spring of 2026. That occurs two days before Prime Minister Doug Ford triggers an electoral campaign of 28 days . Lorenda Reddekopp of CBC has the details.
“Every time it goes on the surveys it is a good time to call an election,” said Andrew Brander, former Ontario PC campaign manager and federal conservative candidates, now vice president of the public affairs firm CrestView Strategies.
“Probably the greatest advantage for Doug Ford by calling an choice now is that we have not seen much of the opposition in terms of really being able to define himself,” Brander said in an interview.
The PCs “have been ready in the elections since the first day of this mandate,” said Larkssa Waler, former director of Communications at Ford, who now leads the public affairs firm Henley Strategies.
“The PCs are ready to work,” Waler said in an interview. “They have been calling the doors every day for years.”
Ford’s party has nominated more candidates than any of its rivals. (No party has nominated for a complete board for all 124 ontarium currents so far. There is still time: the nomination deadline to reach the electoral ballot will be on February 13).
2. JUSTIN TRUDEAU RECOVERY
Multiple sources within the PC party say that at the beginning of January, Ford was reluctant to call an early choice. This was weeks after Trump won and began talking about slapping tariffs in Canada.
What gave Ford from the reluctance of enthusiasm: the announcement of January 6 by Justin Trudeau that he would resign as prime minister and extend the Parliament.
Trudeau’s announcement not only created a leadership vacuum in Ottawa that Ford could explode, but also guaranteed that there would be no federal elections to interfere with a provincial campaign until at least the end of March, and would begin a federal career of liberal leadership.
Due to the strong overlap between federal and provincial liberal parties, that leadership career is now absorbing resources, political organizers, volunteers and experienced donations, which could otherwise help the liberals of Crombie Ontario.
“There are only so many people in Ontario that they know how to administer the elections and who know how to raise money and know how to be campaign managers,” Waler said.
Tom Allison, a veteran organizer of the liberal campaign, was scheduled to be president of the Ontario liberals, but is now managing the Chrystia Freeland leadership campaign.
The province’s financial control agency estimates that the cost of expansion of Ontario alcohol sales to convenience stores, supermarkets and large boxes will cost taxpayers approximately $ 1.4 billion by 2030. Lane Harrison de CBC will break down The numbers.
3. Ford vs. Trump
The role of president of the prime ministers of Canada revolves every year. The moment for the Prime Minister of Ontario to turn the head of the table could not have worked better for Ford.
In response to Trump’s tariff threat, Ford has become a protector not only ontarium, but also of Canada, says Waler.
“I think that even voters who were not previously accessible to the Ontario PC game have looked at Doug Ford and said:” He has our best interests in the heart. He goes face to face with Donald Trump. ”
Trump will hardly negotiate with a simple prime minister of a province in a country that often rules out how state 51. Still, Ford is scheduled to travel to Washington twice during the electoral campaign, and that is a visual that PC will want to use in his efforts to portray him as the ontarium leader needs.
In addition, if Trump follows his tariff threat and Ontario’s economy is severely damaged, by the time the regularly scheduled election date of the province arrives regularly in June 2026, voters could be humorous to get him out of Ford.
4. Advertising advantage
When calling the early choice, the PCs benefit from the advertising prior to the campaign in a way that could not in the normal electoral calendar of the voting ontarium every four years.
The expenditure of the Provincial Electoral Law CAPS in ads during the six months prior to the start of a scheduled general electoral campaign. In the case of a quick choice like this, the expenditure limit prior to the campaign does not apply.
The PC in cash have flooded the waves during the last year with ads financed by the party that promote Ford and attacking Crombie.
“PCs have poured millions of dollars into these advertising campaigns,” Brander said. “The liberals really didn’t have the resources to retreat so strongly, early enough.”
PCs also obtain a possible impulse of government advertisements financed by taxpayers who promote Ontario who have appeared during the past year. The provincial law prohibits government advertising for a period of 60 days before each programmed electoral campaign, but that prohibition does not apply in this situation, when an election is called early.
The Ontario General Auditor found that the Government spent a record of $ 103.5 million in advertising in fiscal year 2023-24.
LANE Harrison de CBC breaks down the most prominent aspects of the announcement of elections of Prime Minister Doug Ford, in addition, we listen to Toronto residents about how they feel in the head the surveys early.
5. Advance to the possible Victoria Pailievre
In the last 65 years, through 17 provincial elections, there has only been once an Ontario party formed a government when its federal political cousins were in power in Ottawa. That was 2003, when the liberals of Dalton McGuinty won in Ontario, while Jean Chrétien was prime minister.
That long -term historical tendency is not the only reason why some Ontario PC organizers were unhappy to wait .
The organizers of the PC also feared that Ford had stayed with the electoral calendar of a fixed date, that some policies brought by a Pailievre government could cause a violent reaction that would harm the provincial party in 2026.
6. Advance the possible positions of Greenbelt
The early call means that, unless the RCMP announces something in the next four weeks, Ford PCs will have sent the surveys without the spectrum of any position related to Affair Greenbelt.
The Ford government movement to allow a group of selected land owners to build houses in the protected green belt, which increases the potential value of that land by more than $ 8 billion, according to the general auditor, dominated the first year of this mandate.
While Ford finally discarded the plan, the RCMP is investigating how it arose, looking for any evidence of corruption.
7. Time is everything
Nor does Ford hurt politically that a $ 200 check is landing in the mailboxes of almost all voters in Ontario at this time.
If Ford wins another majority on February 27, it will be the first Ontario Prime Minister to take three consecutive majorities since the 1950s, when Leslie Frost did it for the PCs.
