Welcome to the online version of Of the policy desktopA night bulletin that provides the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign.
Happy Tuesday and welcome to the first major day of the year, with a critical career of the State Supreme Court in Battleground Wisconsin that attracted national attention, and two special elections in Florida for the seats of the Redzas House of Deep Networks, one of which in particular has made the Republicans their Republicans.
After Florida yesterday in that raceSteve Kornacki breaks down two key areas to see in Wisconsin. In addition, our Capitol Hill team analyzes how Republicans are preparing for the great fees announcement of President Donald Trump.
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Two very different parts of Wisconsin to see in the state elections of the Supreme Court
By Steve Kornacki
While the Wisconsin Supreme Court career is officially non -partisan, Democrats and Republicans have chosen the sides and are investing fortunes in their efforts. As the votes contain tonight, the ability to claim political impulse amid the agitation of the second mandate of President Donald Trump will be at stake.
However, what is being tested is not so much if a large number of voters have changed their minds in the five months after the presidential elections. When it comes to Trump himself, Wisconsin is a particularly polarized state, with three consecutive presidential elections decided by less than 1 point. Most likely, the result depends on whether the Pro-Trump side has committed more in an election like this than this point.
This is a clear advantage that Democrats have forged in Trump’s era. In independent elections for low profile offices, in which participation is much lower than in careers for president or even governor, they have had the most motivated set of voters. This has been true in Wisconsin, where the candidate backed by Democrat won the most recent elections of the Supreme Court in 2023 by 11 points. And it has been true at the national level, where the Democrats have published a series of victories and excessive in the special elections of the camera in recent years.
Energy does not come from all corners of the Democratic coalition. Instead, it is concentrated between a set of voters largely white with high levels of education, greater income and intensely anti-trump opinions.
They are found in most abundance in university cities and metropolitan areas, but even in places where there are few in number, they have been hitting above their weight in the lowest elections.
On the other hand, Trump in his three campaigns has generated an increase in increase and the support of white blue neck voters, predominantly in rural and small town areas. Many of those voters had been on the political margin before Trump appeared, while others had been voting Democrat. They have maintained a strong loyalty to Trump, but they have not been as interested in low profile competitions as the careers of the State Supreme Court.
Two particular parts of Wisconsin capture this dynamic clearly and will appear large on Tuesday night.
Dane County is one of the most fertile land demographically for Democrats anywhere in the country. Hogar from both the state capital and at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has, with much, the largest concentration of adults with university education in the state. It is also the fifth richest county in the state, and with almost 600,000 residents, it is the second most populated. And in low profile races like this, their levels of participation have been the highest of any county.
Then there is what is known locally as the “area without derivation”, a strip largely rural and small that extends along the Mississippi river from the Iowa border to the south of the suburbs of the twin city of St. Croix County. The name derives from the lack of glacial coverage tens of thousands of years, but politically, the area without deriva is full of white blue neck voters who emerged in mass when Trump was running for the first time for the White House in 2016. It is the opposite culture and policy of Dane’s county.
Now consider what happened in the elections of the Supreme Court of 2023. If we use last year’s presidential race as a reference point, participation in Dane County for the 2023 judicial career was 66% so high. That is an astronomical sum given the office in play. And the democrat -aligned candidate won by 64 points, a propagation much greater than the democratic presidential candidates who usually enjoy in Dane.
On the contrary, the participation in the 14 counties that make up the area without derivation was only 51% of the presidential level, which means that many of the voters who materialized for Trump simply did not participate. And without them, the candidate backed by Democrat actually won the area without derivation, a setback to the Trump era.
That encapsulates the challenge for Republicans in Tuesday’s career: Have you found a way to reach Pro-Trump voters in places like the area without drift and convince them that it is proof of their loyalty to the president?
Read more: What to observe how Wisconsin and Florida organize the first important elections of Trump’s second mandate, by Adam Edelman, Bridget Bowman, Ben Kamisar and Kailani Koenig
LIVE COVERAGE: Stay well with the live updates of tonight’s elections in our blog live
Some Republicans seek tariff exemptions and express concern for Trump’s commercial war
By Sahil Kapur, Melanie Zanona and Zoë Richards
Several Republicans of Congress express their concern publicly about the potential of prolonged commercial war and its effect on American farmers while President Donald Trump prepares to announce a new wave of tariffs.
Trump is expected to impose duties as early as Wednesday in imports from other countries in a movement that could affect the agricultural community particularly. Several legislators of the Republican Party in Capitol Hill look for last minute workshops to print the impact of these rates.
Representative Glenn Thompson, Republican of PA-PA., President of the Chamber Agriculture Committee, told NBC News that he has asked the White House to exempt certain assets that are important for the United States agricultural industry, such as fertilizers and mobs.
“I have pointed out that the things I hope” are excluded, he said. “I talk to anyone who listens to me … they have been very good with the entrance.”
Thompson also said he hopes that Congress does not need to rescue farmers with an emergency help package, as he did during the first Trump administration. But, he said, “we will be prepared to do that” again if necessary.
Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said it is likely to need exemptions for specific goods.
“The only thing I can tell you at this time is in Potash,” Grassley said when asked about Trump’s rates. Citing the dependence of the United States in Canada for much of its potassa, Grassley said “we will have to ask for” an exemption.
The representative Tom Cole, R-OKLA., President of the Chamber Assignments Committee, indicated a division between the agricultural and non-farmer communities.
Cole said farmers in their state “export a lot”, so they have concerns about retaliation tariffs. However, those outside the agricultural community are “mainly in favor” of tariffs, which, according to him, has led him to adopt a “wait and see” approach.
Read more →
What to know about Trump’s presidency today
- The Trump administration carried out mass dismissals throughout the Department of Health and Human Services on Tuesday, with the aim of reducing around 10,000 full -time jobs of federal agencies.
- At least six federal agencies offer workers a new opportunity for “deferred resignation” in the last attempt of the Trump administration to reduce the size of the United States government.
- The United States government accidentally deported a man to El Salvador due to an “administrative error”, which led him to a noticeable Mega Jail and left him trapped there in the legal limbo.
- Attorney General Pam Bondi ordered federal prosecutors to seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangione, the man accused of shots at the CEO of Unitedhealthcare, Brian Thompson, in New York City last year.
- The non -profit and democratic groups presented legal challenges against Trump’s new executive order aimed at reviewing federal elections.
- Democratic officials in 23 states and Washington, DC, sued the Trump administration for their decision as “abruptly and arbitrarily” terminating $ 11 billion in federal funds for Covid and other public health projects.
- The administration reduced the funds to a large number of research projects from Princeton University, which marked the last institution of the IVY League to see its reduced or revoked federal support.
🗞️ The other main stories today
- 🤷 He shrugged: Trump told the “Meet The Press” Kristen Welker moderator during the weekend that “he is not joking” about wanting to seek a third term, which the Constitution prohibits. But Republican legislators minimized the president’s comments, with the leader of the majority of the Senate John Thune, RS.D., telling journalists that Trump is “playing with you.” Read more →
- 🥊 Proxy (vote) Fight: A band of Republican legislators sank an effort by the speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., To block a plan to allow remote voting for legislators who become new parents, a bitter dispute that stopped the floor of the camera camera during the week. Read more →
- 🎤 Taking a position (literally): Senator Cory Booker, Dn.J., turned to the Senate floor on Monday night to protest the recent actions of the Trump administration, saying that “our country is in crisis.” The moment we sent this newsletter, I was still talking. The longest registered Senate speech is 24 hours and 18 minutes. Read more →
That’s all of the politics desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.
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