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The days of Ottawa’s clean electricity regulations are numbered in Alberta, after Premier Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed their memorandum of understanding last week.
The federal government has suspended regulations aimed at curbing Canada’s worst polluter, but has not explained how it will ensure the country’s climate goals are met.
However, carbon pricing is expected to play a dominant role.
Federal electricity regulations were supposed to have the biggest impact in Alberta, displacing almost 214 million tonnes of pollution. This is equivalent to eliminating tailpipe emissions from more than 49 million cars.
Senior Political Correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with Minister of Environment and Climate Change Julie Dabrusin about the environmental implications of the Alberta-Canada energy deal. Plus, Brian Jean, Alberta’s energy minister, talks about the benefits a new pipeline would bring to the province. And BC Minister of Energy and Climate Solutions Adrian Dix explains why a bitumen pipeline is not a viable option for the West Coast.
Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin says she has the power to negotiate a side deal with Alberta that achieves similar results.
“If they can show me that they can meet the objectives of the regulation with their own regional path, I can negotiate with them,” Dabrusin told CBC. rosemary barton live.
The technical term to describe what Dabrusin is talking about is an equivalence agreement, although neither the minister nor Alberta officials have used that term. Canada’s Environmental Protection Act authorizes Dabrusin to enter into such agreements with provinces, territories and Indigenous governments.
Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, British Columbia and Alberta have signed such agreements with the federal government.
How will Alberta offset emissions?
Thursday’s agreement commits Alberta to “achieving a net-zero electricity grid by 2050,” a goal also outlined in the clean electricity regulations.
Alberta argued those rules would force the province to phase out natural gas power generation and cause blackouts.
The regulations do not ban natural gas power, but do require carbon capture and storage facilities to be established and carbon credits to be purchased to offset emissions.
A spokesperson for Alberta’s Environment and Protected Areas minister said the province will meet its emissions targets through its carbon pricing system, the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) program, which already regulates large emitters of electricity generation.
The memorandum signed with Ottawa requires Alberta to negotiate an agreement by April 1 to increase the price of carbon credits traded in the TIER system.
But for years, Environment and Climate Change Canada officials studied whether a high enough price on emissions would be enough on its own to put the country on track to meet its climate goals.
The answer that emerged from the modeling is, by itself: no.
According to an assessment of Canada’s electricity sector published in 2024, even a carbon price of $170 per tonne “would be insufficient.”
The memorandum committed to raising the province’s effective carbon price to a minimum of $130 per tonne.
Higher carbon price ‘possible’ solution: think tank
However, the Canadian Climate Institute think tank said it is not impossible for Alberta to meet its emissions targets with a strong carbon price.
“It’s possible,” said Dale Beugin, executive vice-president of the Canadian Climate Institute. “The federal government or others would have to do those calculations and show that they can be equivalent. And that strengthens the case for this memorandum of understanding.”
The Pembina Institute, a clean energy think tank, is skeptical about whether both Alberta and the federal government can reduce energy emissions without regulations.
“[Clean electricity regulations] It would have done a lot to send a signal to Alberta’s beleaguered renewable sector that they need them,” said Scott MacDougall, electricity program director at the Pembina Institute.
The agreement itself specifies that carbon pricing alone will not be enough to reduce emissions from Alberta’s power sector. The memorandum of understanding states that it will take into account “all other measures” before permanently suspending clean electricity regulations.
It is unknown what these other measures are.
