Any attack on the country’s nuclear power plant could cause a nuclear disaster, he warns experts.
Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities so far have limited contamination risks, experts say. But they warn that any attack at the country’s nuclear power plant could cause a nuclear disaster.
Israel says that he is determined to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities in his military campaign, but also wants to avoid any nuclear disaster in a region that is the home of tens of millions of people and produces much of the world’s oil.
The fear of the catastrophe extended by the Gulf on Thursday when the Israeli army said he had hit a site in Bushehr on the Gulf coast, home from the only nuclear energy station in Iran, only to say later that the announcement was an error.
What has hit Israel so far?
Israel has announced attacks on nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan, Arak and Tehran. Israel says it aims to prevent them from building an atomic bomb. Iran denies having searched one.
The International Nuclear Control Agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (OIEA), has reported damage to the Uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, to the Nuclear Complex in ISFAHAN, including the uranium conversion installation, and the centrifugal production facilities in Karaj and Tehran.
Israel has also attacked Arak, also known as Khondab.
The OIEA said that Israeli military attacks arrived at the Khondab heavy water research reactor, which was under construction and had not begun to operate, and damaged the nearby plant that manufactures heavy water. The OIEA said that it was not operational and that it did not contain nuclear material, so there were no radiological effects.
In an update of its evaluation on Friday, the OIEA said the key buildings on the site were damaged. Heavy water reactors can be used to produce plutonium, which, such as enriched uranium, can be used to make an atomic pump.
What risks do these attacks pose?
Peter Bryant, a professor at the University of Liverpool in England who specializes in radiation protection sciences and nuclear energy policy, said that so far he is not too concerned about the risks of the consequences of strikes.
He pointed out that ARAK’s site was not operational, while Natanz’s installation was underground, and no radiation release was reported. “The problem is to control what happened within that installation, but the nuclear facilities are designed for that,” he said. “Uranium is only dangerous if it is inhaled or ingested physically or gets into the body with low enrichments,” he said.
Darya Dolzikova, senior research fellow in the group of experts in London, Rusi, said that the attacks on the facilities in the front of the nuclear fuel cycle, the stages where uranium is prepared for use in a reactor, mainly pose chemical, non -radiological risks.
In enrichment facilities, UF6, U uranium hexafluoruro, is concern. “When UF6 interacts with water vapor in the air, it produces harmful chemicals,” he said.
The extent to which any material is dispersed would depend on factors, including the weather, he added. “In low winds, much of the material can be expected to be based on the vicinity of the installation; in strong winds, the material will travel further, but it is also likely to be scattered more widely.”
The risk of dispersion is lower for underground facilities.
Simon Bennett, who directs the Civil Security and Safety Unit of the University of Leicester in the United Kingdom, said the environmental risks were minimal if Israel reaches underground facilities because it is “burying nuclear material in possibly thousands of tons of concrete, earth and rock.”
What about nuclear reactors?
The main concern would be a strike in Iran’s nuclear reactor by Bushehr.
Richard Wakeford, an honorary professor of epidemiology at the University of Manchester, said that although the contamination of attacks on enrichment facilities would be “mainly a chemical problem” for surrounding areas, extensive damage to large energy reactors “is a different story.”
The radioactive elements would be released through a column of volatile materials or at sea, he added.
James Acton, co -director of the Nuclear Policy program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that an attack against Busehr “could cause an absolute radiological catastrophe”, but that attacks against enrichment facilities were “unlikely to cause significant consequences outside the site.”
Before uranium enters a nuclear reactor, it is barely radioactive, he said. “The chemical form of uranium hexafluoruro is toxic … but in reality it does not tend to travel great distances, and it is barely radioactive. Until now, the radiological consequences of Israel’s attacks have been practically null,” he added, while declaring his opposition to Israel’s campaign.
Bennett, from the University of Leicester, said it would be “foolish for Israelis to attack” Busehr because they could pierce the reactor, which would mean releasing radioactive material to the atmosphere.
Why are the Gulf States especially worried?
For the Gulf States, the impact of any strike in Bushehr would be worsened by the potential contamination of the Gulf’s waters, endangering a critical source of desalted drinking water.
In the EAU, the desalted water represents more than 80 percent of the drinking water, while Bahrein depended completely on desalted water in 2016, with 100 percent groundwater reserved for contingency plans, according to authorities.
Qatar depends on 100 pieces of desalted water.
In Saudi Arabia, a much larger nation with a greater reserve of natural groundwater, approximately 50 percent of the water supply come from desalted water from 2023, according to the General Authority of Statistics.
While some Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have access to more than one sea to extract water, countries such as Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are crowded along the Gulf coast without another coast.
“If a natural disaster, oil spill or even an objective attack interrupted a desalination plant, hundreds of thousands could lose access to fresh water almost instantly,” said Nidal Hilal, engineering professor and director of the ABU Dhabi Water Research Center at the University of New York.
“Coastal desalination plants are especially vulnerable to regional dangers such as oil spills and possible nuclear pollution,” he said.
Image of the header: The satellite image shows the Bustehr nuclear energy plant, in the province of Bushehr, Iran, May 26. – Reuters
