Tuesday is the primary day in Virginia, but the confrontation of general elections for the highest position of the Commonwealth is already established.
The Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former representative of the United States, and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, Lieutenant Governor of the State, know for months that they would face each other in the race to succeed Republican governor Glenn Youngkin, since they were the only candidates of major parties that would be classified for the ballot.
It is guaranteed that one of them will make history when chosen by the first governor of Virginia. And they have already been executing general campaigns focused on the elections for months, providing an early start to one of the two governor races this year (the other is in New Jersey). These elections will be early indicators of how voters are responding to President Donald Trump, and where the political winds are blowing before the intermediate works of 2026.
Clear dividing lines of both campaigns have already emerged, providing a map of how each candidate could forge a way to win the main political work of Virginia and navigate the policy of Trump’s second mandate.
Spanberger has largely focused on economic and affordability problems, as well as their support for reproductive rights in a state that abortion rights groups stand out as a rare place in the south, where abortion care remains widely accessible to viability. The Spanberger campaign and allied groups have also attacked Earle-Sears about their conservative history in additional social problems, such as contraception and the quality of marriage.
In addition, the Spanberger campaign and its allies have often hit Earle-Sears about what they call an indifferent response to Trump’s movements to reduce federal workforce. Virginia is home to more than 340,000 federal workers.
Earle-Sears, in large part, has become the achievements of the Youngkin Administration, telling voters to choose it would mark a continuation of the popular (but limited to term) history of the Republican governor, including the cultivation of the private sector of the economy and defend the “rights of parents” in the schools and classrooms of their children.
Even so, some Republicans have criticized Earle-Sears campaign, complaining that it lacks discipline and consistency.
In the interviews, the Republican agents in the state and in other places have complained that the campaign has lacked a central message.
“I want to see her succeed. He is simply not executing a good campaign,” said a Republican operation that has worked in Virginia, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the campaign.
“His failures have allowed Spanberger simply feeling strong. But time is not on Earle-Sears side. He is on the spanberger side, due to the composition of the state and due to his advantage of money,” the operation said.
But the operation and other Republicans NBC News talked about having pointed out that it is still too early to predict a condemned end for the Earle-Sears campaign, noting that the formal general electoral cycle is beginning and pointing out that Youngkin himself got an arrival near winning four years.
Earle-sears “has a great story” and “she can be electrifying in the stump,” said the operation.
The spokesman for the Earle-Sears campaign, Peyton Vogel, said it would be based on Youngkin’s record and keep Virginia “on the right path.”
“This race is a clear option: Abigail Spanberger represents the Status Quo de Biden: higher prices, soft crime policies and a war on parents’ rights,” Vogel said in an email. “Winsome is building a movement driven by true Virginians who want to keep Virginia on the right path.”
In an email, Spanberger’s campaign spokesman, Connor Joseph, framed the race through the problems he has adopted as his main points of conversation: affordability, economic problems, reproductive freedom and confront Trump.
Joseph said that Spanberger is “relentlessly focused on making Virginia more affordable for their families, strengthening schools for their children and growing the economy of the Commonwealth for all.”
“At this time marked by such uncertainty, Virginia’s voters also know that Abigail will never be afraid to face the Trump administration attacks against Virginia’s work and Virginia’s economy, and they know that Abigail will be a governor who always defends his fundamental freedoms, unlike his opponent,” he said.
How campaigns are configuring their stories
Both candidates released their first television ads in recent weeks, highlighting their biographies as they are presented to voters.
Earle-Sears, a Jamaican immigrant, is a veteran marina, electrician and businesswoman. He served in the Chamber of Delegates and as vice president of the Commonwealth Education Board before running for Lieutenant Governor in 2021. He became the first woman governor of the state and the first black woman in the state position.
Spanberger, a former CIA officer, overturned a seat of the Republican Chamber in 2018 and settled as a more moderate legislator, aligning with colleagues with national security history.
From January 1. Until Tuesday, $ 3.7 million have been spent on advertisements in the race, according to Adimpact. The Spanberger campaign has spent $ 1.4 million, while the Earle-Sears campaign has spent $ 2.3 million.
That disparity, however, has not been reflected in the very early surveys, which has shown Spanberger ahead. In a recent Roanoke College survey, 32% of respondents saw Earle-Sears favorably, and 48% said they had unfavorable views. Another 20% of respondents said they had no opinion about it. On the contrary, 41% of respondents said they saw Spanberger favorably, and 40% said they saw her unfavorably.
The numbers reflect the uphill that the Republicans had already faced in their search to maintain control of the Government. The governor elections outside the year tend to be a vituto of the broader political environment and the party in power in Washington. In 11 of the last 12 races of the governor of Virginia, the voters chose the candidate of the party outside of power in the White House.
But the campaign no, for the hinge of stretching, only in what is happening in Washington. Democratic aligned groups have indicated an eagerness to highlight, for example, the conservative positions of Earle-sears in a couple of issues on which it is not aligned with Youngkin: same-sex marriage and abortion rights.
“Since the Republicans feel the foundations for prohibiting contraception and the desire to Earle-sears promise to do everything in their possession to end abortion in the state, reproductive freedom is on the ballot in Virginia this November, and we will make sure that voters know that,” said Emily’s president Jessica Mackler, in an interview. His group, who works to choose democratic women who support abortion rights, supported Spanberger in December 2023, only weeks after launching his campaign while he was still in Congress.
Even so, the Democrats have refused to give anything for granted in a state Trump lost for less last year than in their previous careers and where several recent governors have been close.
“I feel that we have impulse, but at the same time, we are prepared for this to be very competitive,” said the executive director of the Association of Democratic Governors Meghan Meehan-Draper in a call with journalists last week. “The bets of this race are too high so that we take anything for granted.”
Youngkin has continued publicly praising its number 2, calling it in recent months a “firm couple” that could be based on their record. He has often referred to the victories and achievements of the “Youngkin-Earle-Sears” administration.
“Winsome Earle-Sears is the American dream,” he wrote in X this year. “Her life of service to God, family, country and Commonwealth has prepared her to take the governor’s mansion this fall and keep Virginia winning.”
