After 18 weeks, the NFL playoffs are finally here. Over the next three days we will have six wild card games to decide who will advance to the divisional round. The schedule is as follows:
- Chargers at Texans (4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday)
- Steelers at Ravens (8 p.m. ET on Saturday)
- Broncos at Bills (1 p.m. ET on Sunday)
- Packers at Eagles (4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday)
- Commanders at Buccaneers (8 p.m. ET on Sunday)
- Vikings vs Rams (in Arizona on Monday at 8 pm ET)
With a multitude of stories to watch, NBC News’ Rohan Nadkarni and Andrew Grief and NBC Sports’ Patrick Daugherty are here to break them down from every angle.
What game are you most looking forward to?
Nadkarni: Ravens-Steelers. It’s hard not to be romantic about these two teams. I know Pittsburgh is entering the playoffs on a four-game losing streak, but I’m all for a matchup between two physical, cold-weather teams that already have an inherent dislike for each other. Add to that the fun associated with divisional games, and I think we could be close even if Baltimore is the better team on paper.
The Steelers also provide a promising start to the story arc if this is finally the year Lamar Jackson makes it to the Super Bowl. Jackson could do worse than beat a formidable AFC North opponent in the first round, not to mention defeat Russell Wilson, who even late in his career deserves respect for his postseason resume. Whether it’s an upset or a close match between bitter rivals, the spectrum of results here is excellent.
Greif: Ravens-Steelers, because Pittsburgh has been able to repeatedly frustrate Ravens quarterback and perennial MVP candidate Jackson during his career in a way few have. Jackson often receives criticism that he can’t win when it counts, but this year he has become a more accurate passer than ever and is complemented by a better running game than ever. The idea of seeing Jackson at his most talented and motivated is tantamount to watching entertaining television.
Also, Chargers-Texans. Does anyone think either team has a chance of winning it all this season? I don’t believe it either. But if you polled NFL executives about which AFC teams have the best chance of competing over the next five years, my guess is the Chargers and Texans would be at the top of the list. This meeting, then, is an opportunity to see which team is prepared to take that first step. A playoff win could serve as a springboard for the future.
daughter: Buccaneers-Commanders. Both teams are designed to win shootouts and have playmakers all over the field. Jayden Daniels is the most exciting young player in football, but Baker Mayfield may have in some ways been the most exciting player, period, this season. He was second in the NFL in touchdown passes and first in turnovers. Whatever happens, this one is going to be interesting.
Name a team on upset alert
Nadkarni: Minnesota. The Vikings are slight favorites against the Rams, and I think Minnesota, despite their 14-3 record, is a team I’m definitely nervous about. First, Los Angeles has already beaten the Vikings once at home this season, winning 30-20 in Week 7, a game in which Matthew Stafford threw for four touchdowns. And thanks to the NFL’s love of division winners, Minnesota is back on track to start the playoffs.
Simply put, I’m nervous for Sam Darnold in his first postseason action, especially after a disappointing outing against the Lions in the Vikings’ season finale. And while defensive coordinator Brian Flores can come up with a great game plan, there’s nothing Stafford hasn’t seen.
Greif: Philadelphia. After missing the final two games of the regular season with a concussion, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was released from concussion protocol and practiced Wednesday, which was a significant boost for the Eagles. But what will Sunday look like against a Packers defense that forced 31 turnovers (fourth most in the NFL) including 17 interceptions? Philadelphia has won thanks to its running game, but the Packers have been above average stopping the run this season, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards among playoff teams.
daughter: Minnesota. The Vikings were close to first place in the NFC, but this is a team that lived off one-score wins all year. You have to be good at doing that, of course, but there is an element of luck involved. Fellow rivals Arizona and Seattle nearly beat Minnesota in December. This was a consistent team throughout the regular season, but it was never as dominant as its eye-catching record indicated.
Which coach has the most pressure on them this weekend?
Nadkarni: Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Look, I don’t expect any of the coaches who lose this weekend to be fired. This is a very good playoff field. But Harbaugh is getting another year of MVP-caliber play from Jackson and he can’t afford to waste that with a loss to a failing Steelers team. Every time Lamar prepares for the playoffs from now until he wins a Super Bowl, there will be questions about whether or not he can make it in the postseason. And while those struggles (however real or invented) are not unique to Harbaugh, I think he has the most to lose from an early exit.
Greif: Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. His last playoff was on January 15, 2017. This is not to say that a fifth consecutive playoff loss would jeopardize Tomlin’s job; It is the rare institution in a league that changes coaches. And yet, this season has been a microcosm of his 18-season career as the Steelers’ coach. After making all the right moves at first, there has been a setback lately. This fall, the midseason switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson looked like a masterstroke at quarterback, until they limped into wild card weekend on a four-game losing streak.
daughter: Bills coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo has done everything but reach the Super Bowl. It is no longer enough to win the wild card round. The pressure can quickly become unbearable when anything short of a title is considered a failure, and many Bills fans believe McDermott is the only thing standing between them and the Lombardi Trophy. If McDermott feels fear and trains to “not lose” on Sunday, he could be signing his own pink slip.
Which quarterback will have the best performance?
Nadkarni: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. He is going to have a great opportunity to increase the numbers for the Commanders. The Buccaneers had the fourth-worst passing defense in the NFL in the regular season and played some shootouts this year. Combine that with Daniels’ running ability (and how much Washington relies on him in general) and I expect him to have a strong performance numbers-wise in a back-and-forth affair.
Greif: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. Yes, Darnold is coming off his worst performance of the season, particularly in the red zone. And yes, the Rams have already beaten the Vikings once this season. But Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the most creative offensive minds in football, and now he faces a Rams defense that ranks below the league average in sack frequency, and also ranks 23rd this season in opponent passer rating. Detroit’s aggressive pass rush clearly bothered Darnold late in the regular season, but if the Vikings can give him time, he can be effective. Among playoff teams, only Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed a higher average passer rating.
daughter: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. It’s never the first name that comes to mind for these types of questions, but the Bucs have scored fewer than 26 points at home just twice in nine games, while the Commanders have the worst pass defense in the playoff field. Mayfield had nine three-touchdown performances during the regular season, including against the Commanders in Tampa. I like the Bucs to win a high-scoring contest, and Mayfield will be the main reason.
Which team playing this weekend has the best chance of winning the Super Bowl?
Nadkarni: The Eagles. Philadelphia has the combination of talent, complementary football and big-game experience that really no one else playing this weekend has. The Eagles may not be as exciting as the Lions, but there’s almost too much buzz surrounding a team that nearly won a Super Bowl just two years ago.
Greif: The invoices. Although not the No. 1 seed, Buffalo already beat AFC No. 1 seed Kansas City to snap the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak, and their resume also includes a Dec. 15 road win against Detroit, the eventual No. 1 seed in the NFC. Few NFL franchises are hurt more in the postseason than Buffalo, but if there was ever a season to break Kansas City’s dominance in the AFC, this could be it considering how well Josh Allen has played en route to potentially becoming in the NFL Most Valuable Player.
daughter: The crows. Football fans outside of Baltimore are probably tired of hearing it, but this could finally be the Ravens’ year. They were arguably second to Detroit in offense this season, and they beefed up significantly on defense down the stretch. Jackson could win his third MVP. Coach Harbaugh has seen it all. You don’t want to play the Ravens this postseason.