It is expected that the US GDP figures for the first quarter show a strong fall in growth, and possibly even a contraction, reflecting an increase in imports before the tariffs of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, would enter into force.
“It will be a rather dramatic deceleration from the fourth quarter,” said Moody’s Matt Collyar analysis economist AFP
The gross data of the domestic product for the quarter will be published on Wednesday, on the 10th from Trump’s return to the office on January 20.
At that time, he has announced several rounds of rates, presenting plans in March to impose radical levies on the main commercial partners since the beginning of April in an attempt to restore the commercial relations of the United States.
The introduction of these rates caused a sale of the sale in the financial markets, which caused volatility at the levels not seen from the Covid-19 Pandemia and the investors of the roof.
“In general, government policy does not change so much, particularly not in the first 100 days of a presidency,” said Economics professor at George Washington Tara Sinclair AFP. “But this is different.”
“I think it is quite clear that there were dramatic policy changes that are directly weakening the economy,” he said.
After the dramatic April market movement, the Trump administration announced a 90 -day break to the highest tariffs for dozens of countries to allow commercial conversations, while maintaining a base rate of 10 percent for most countries.
He also announced specific measures of the sector on steel, aluminum and cars and pieces not made in the United States, and new scan rates that total 145 percent in China.
Beijing responded with his own steep and specific duties against US assets.
Rising recession risk
The US economy grew 2.8pc last year, according to the United States Department of Commerce. In the new year, analysts expected growth to cool, but it would remain around 2 % in 2025.
Since Trump’s return to charge and introduction of new tariffs, many analysts have abruptly reduced their growth perspective. Some economists, including those of Wall Street Titans Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, now predict an economic contraction in the first quarter.
But even if the economy does not contract for the first quarter, which ended before Trump’s radical tariffs entered into force, the scale of deceleration analysts hope would be significant.
“Our expectation is something surprisingly on the upper side, and we are at 0.5pc,” said Colyar de Moody’s Analytics.
The market consensus estimate is for the annualized growth of the GDP of 0.4pc for the first quarter, according to Besose.com, a change marked from the annualized rate of 2.4pc observed in the last quarter of 2024.
If the economy cools as expected, it will greatly reduce an increase in imports, since consumers and companies rushed to buy what they needed before the tariffs began, analysts said. AFP
“This import increase, that comes directly from people trying to get ahead of tariffs,” Sinclair of George Washington University said. “And that is in direct response to this president’s policies.”
Beyond the effects of tariffs, it is likely that GDP data paints a “very complicated story,” Belinda Roman, an associate professor at the University of St Mary in San Antonio, Texas, in an interview, said in an interview.
Roman pointed out the better job figures than expected, which suggest that “there is clearly more changing than we are not seeing” in the data.
“I think there could be a small contraction,” he said.
“That can be compensated with the fact that we have seen what I think is a very interesting increase in employment,” he said.
“I think we will begin to see in the second quarter and the third quarter more negative impacts, because it takes time,” he said. “It doesn’t happen immediately.”
