The United States commercial deficit in goods and services rose to a record of $ 140.5 billion in March. The year to date, the deficit has increased by 92.6%, as companies and consumers rush to import goods before the global tariffs of President Donald Trump increase on July 6.
Solo imports have increased 23.3% so far this year and were $ 17.8 billion higher last month, the Office of Economic Analysis said Tuesday. US exports to other countries increased by just $ 500 million.
Trump’s tariffs, which already ascend to more than 145% in China, will increase by just under 65 days after they were initially stopped.
Imports of consumer goods in March increased to a historical maximum, mainly led by a massive increase in pharmaceutical imports. Clothes, furniture, jewelry, appliance and textile categories also saw increases from February.
For the first quarter, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States was reduced to 0.3% due to the greater drag of net exports (the difference between total exports and total imports) in more than half a century, according to Wells Fargo economists. Other parts of the US economy also showed signs of deceleration. Consumer spending increased 1.8% in the first quarter, the weakest rhythm since mid -2013.
Economists expect widely that the increase in imports decreases in the second quarter, which should allow GDP to recover in positive territory. But some analysts, including those of Goldman Sachs, still have the probability of a recession within 12 months to 45%.
“We still expect greater increases in rates in other areas (Pharmaceutical ETH, semiconductors and films potentially) and we see a significant risk that some of the” reciprocal “detainees will take effect after all,” wrote the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, to customers on Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that Canada’s exports to the US fell 6.6% for a second month. At the same time, Canada’s exports to other countries increased. The United Kingdom, Netherlands, Hong Kong and Germany were the main receptors of those. Crude oil was Canada’s main export to two of the three countries.
