Do you feel a little tight in the orange juice hall?
Among the cost of climbing for a freshly squeezed juice cardboard, the shielded championships in American juices such as Tropicana, and now plummeted shipments, it may worry that this basic breakfast element is in danger of becoming a luxury good.
But experts in industry and business say that none of this is unexpected and that consumers have options.
Canada is seeing a “dramatic reduction” in the imports of Florida orange juice, but that is to be expected, given the growing prices and the fact that the drink was specifically directed by our counter-tarifas, said Michael Von Massow, professor of food agriculture and resource economy at the University of Guelph in Ontario.
In other words, the marked drop in imports has been aggravated by the consumer’s ongoing desire to buy Canadian, he said.
“We are probably seeing an effect here in which only the American product is rising in price, which means it is decreasing in demand, but there are other options on the shelf,” Von Massow told CBC News.
“Unless it is specifically tied to Florida’s newly pressed orange juice.”
If you have stopped buying orange juice in Florida because tariffs have sent upward prices, there are many options to maintain the basic breakfast element at your table, says Michael Von Massow of the University of Guelph.
US shipments fall at least 20 years
The total value of American shipments of fresh orange juice to Canada saw a strong fall in June to its lowest level in more than 20 years, according to data from the United States Census Office and Statistics Canada.
The total import value in June of the US fresh orange juice. UU. A Canada was $ 5.78 million, compared to almost $ 12 million in June 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Only since January, the monthly import value decreased by 64 percent.
There are a number of factors at play, said William Huggins, an assistant professor of finance and business economy at McMaster University in Hamilton.
Offer limitations increase prices, which reduces demand, he said. In addition, there are 25 percent of the counter-tarifa imposed by Canada on March 4.
Canada’s response to the rates of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, affects goods worth $ 30 billion, including orange juice.
“Canada went specifically to Florida’s orange juice as a way of making a political point. We were not even shy about it,” Huggins said.
Orange juice is practically symbolic of the United States, in the same way that Arce’s syrup is for Canada, he explained.
It has also become emblematic consumer boycott, he added: when buyers think of orange juice, they think of Florida, and when they think of Florida, they think of Trump and their sea in the home of Lake.
“The most basic thing you can do to give your finger to the most powerful man in the world is to damage the economy of his native state,” said Huggins.
Prices on the road
Orange juice prices have always been volatile, as Associated Press points out. Prices fall when bumper crops create an excess supply of oranges and rise when frosts or a hurricane knocate fruit trees.
And recently, the price has been uploading, according to Statistics Canada.
The monthly average retail price for a two -liter cardboard shot at $ 5.95, from $ 5.62 in January, and has increased 54 percent compared to June 2020.
This year’s harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest orange juice, is likely to be the worst in 36 years due to floods and drought, according to a forecast of Fundecitrus, an organization of citrus producers in the state of Sao Paulo.
In the United States, the production of orange already decreased from Florida fell 62 percent in the 2022-23 season after Hurricane Ian hit a harvest that was already fighting due to an invasive plague. The drought also reduced the orange production of Spain last year.
But what the statistics that Canada does not show is that the price increase here is largely driven by the price of Florida orange juice, Von Massow reiterated.
In Loblaws, for example, a container of 2.63 liters of tropicana based in the United States could cost up to $ 13.50, but the PC brand prepared in Canada currently costs $ 6.50. Metro, 2.63 liters of tropic orange juice cost $ 13.99, but 2.5 liters of irresistible brand is $ 7.69.
The Canadian Oasis Property Juice Brand, which obtains its oranges from Brazil and bottle the juice in Quebec, costs $ 5.49 for 1.5 liters in the basic food concepts.
But all these prices are significantly higher than the Canadians paid in 2017. According to Statistics Canada, a two -liter container of orange juice at that time costs around $ 3.61, 40 percent less than it costs now.
Price increases turn off consumers
And consumers are not buying it.
The orange juice global demand fell 15 percent year after year between 2025 and 2024, according to a May Rabobank report, a Dutch bank that focuses on food and agriculture. They cited high prices, weaker consumption feeling and limited availability.
In a July report, Rabobank noticed a “strong decrease in the world supply of orange juice.”
Some Canadian companies have told CBC that they stopped serving orange juice while rethinking their relationship with US products.
Huggins said he really does not expect the orange juice to become the next “liquid gold”, like Olive Oil, which recently saw its double price for three years.
Consumers have other options, he explained, and Boicot’s feeling is still strong.
“It’s not that there are no substitutes for orange juice. People will simply drink apple juice,” Huggins said.
Carol Ann McDevitt, owner of the bed and breakfast from the 20s, about 40 kilometers west of Fredericton, is placing apple cider on the menu instead of the orange juice imported from the United States. And it is not for the cost.
