Detroit-as 25% tariffs of President Donald Trump in imported vehicles are still valid despite a setback this week in other taxes in the country, analysts expect mass global implications for the automotive industry due to policies.
They hope to see a fall in vehicle sales in millions, prices of higher and higher vehicles, and higher costs of more than $ 100 billion for the industry, according to Wall Street research and automotive analysts.
“What we are seeing now is a structural change, driven by politics, it is likely to be durable,” Felix Stellmaszek, the global automotive and mobility leader of Boston Consulting Group told CNB. “This may be the most consistent year for the automotive industry in history, not only for immediate cost pressures, but because it is forcing a fundamental change in how and where the industry develops.”
BCG expects tariffs to add $ 110 billion to $ 160 billion in an annual cost of cost of costs for the industry, which could affect 20% of the market revenues of new US vehicles, which increases production costs for US and non -American manufacturers.
The Automotive Research Center, a group of non -profit experts based in Michigan, believes that costs for car manufacturers only in the United States will increase by $ 107.7 billion. That includes $ 41.9 billion for Detroit General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler Parent Stellantis car manufacturers.
Both analyzes take into account 25% tariffs in imported vehicles implemented by Trump on April 3, as well as the next levies of the same amount in automotive pieces that will begin before May 3.
Automobile and suppliers manufacturers can support some of cost increases, but American consumers are also expected to pass, which in turn could reduce sales, according to analysts.
“We believe that rates as proposed will increase the cost of importation and manufacturing of vehicles in the US Thursday.
Goldman Sachs assumes that the net prices of new vehicles in the United States will increase by approximately $ 2,000 to $ 4,000 in the next period from six to 12 months to better reflect the costs of the rate.
Automobile manufacturers have responded to tariffs in several ways. Manufacturers that are mostly national, such as Ford and Stellantis, have announced temporary agreements for employee prices, while others, such as the British manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover, have ceased US shipments. Hyundai Motor has also said that prices would not increase for at least two months to relieve consumers’ concerns.
The feeling of the consumer grew even worse than expected in April when the expected inflation level reached the highest since 1981, showed a survey by the University of Michigan closely.
Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of Insights of the Telemetry car advice firm, hopes that many car manufacturers have at least one supply of approximately two months of non -objective impacted vehicles that they can sell before you need to increase prices due to tariffs.
Telemetry expects the highest production costs, pieces and other factors to result in more than 2 million less vehicles sold annually in the US. UU. And Canada, which will have domain effects on the economy in general.
“A couple of millions of millions in sales will have a broad economically impact,” said Abuelsamid. “That is driven by higher prices, not only for vehicles, but in all areas … that will limit people’s expenditure power.”
The affordability of new and used vehicles has been a problem for several years. On average, COX Automotive reports that new vehicles cost almost $ 50,000. This figure does not include the cost of financing said vehicle, which has increased significantly in recent years in an attempt to combat inflation.
Cars loan rates remain close to levels of more than 9.64% for a new vehicle and almost 15% for a used car or truck, according to COX.
“We hope to see the decline discount and then the increases in accelerated prices as tariffs pass and the supply hardens, which leads to price increases in all types of new vehicles,” said the economist of the automotive chief of COX, Jonathan Smoke, during a virtual event on Monday. “In the long term, we hope that production and sales fall, freshly used prices will increase and some models are eliminated.”
The expected price increases vary according to the vehicle, but COX estimates an increase of $ 6,000 at the cost of imported vehicles due to the rate of 25% of non -assembly vehicles, as well as an increase of $ 3,600 to vehicles gathered in the USA. UU. Due to the next rates of 25% of the automotive parts. Those add up to increases from $ 300 to $ 500 as a result of previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum.
