Washington – An unintended promise of the presidency of Donald Trump is that the war between Russia and Ukraine would end in a rapid diplomatic mastery blow.
Trump made threats. Applied pressure. Even so, the bombs continue to fall, the victims continue to accumulate.
Now, Trump is betting that a face -to -face meeting with Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will produce the elusive advance and possibly softe the concerns among voters about their war management.
The summit that takes place on Friday on friendly lawn, the red state of Alaska, is equivalent to one of Trump’s biggest gambits. The organization of the meeting increases the expectations that the fight will stop. The president faces traps to sit with Putin, who is well versed in territorial issues at stake, but also enjoys economic and military leverage. Create a lasting peace that will preserve the independence of Ukraine will prove the abilities of agreement that are Trump’s pride point.
“If you arrive at the unprepared meeting, Putin can get stuck,” said Michael McFaul, who was an ambassador of the United States in Russia in the administration of Obama. “The summits are to achieve an objective that advances US national interests. They are the means to end, and sometimes I feel that Trump feels that the meeting is an end in itself.”
Within the Trump administration, a national security officer acknowledged that forging a peace agreement will not be easy. One of the combatants will not be on the table: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has refused to renounce Russia’s territory that was illegally annexed.
“Whether there is an advance in the next week or two, we will discover it,” said the Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Ultimately, Putin and Zelenskyy have to be able to agree on something fundamentally. Third parties can do whatever they want, but these two men have to accept things.”
Sitting in a room with Putin, a cunning negotiator in its own right, Trump can be attracted to support a peace agreement that Ukraine, experts in external policies, caution.
“I worry that in the eagerness to look like a peacemaker, President Trump will say: ‘Yes, that seems to me a good idea,” McFaul said. “Putin will say: ‘Donetsk [a city in eastern Ukraine] He was always part of Russia. And Trump will say: ‘You’re right in that’ “.
“Putin is good in those stories,” McFaul continued. “He knows his story, and can participate in his narrative. That’s what the president needs to be ready and his team needs to prepare it.”
Another possibility is that Putin tries to stop the president further, promising concessions that he has no intention of making hope to consolidate profits on the battlefield, said a former US official.
Putin can try to “divert the goal of President Trump’s goal of Trump’s goal to stop the war and establish a high fire promising things later,” said William Taylor, who was accused of the United States embassy in Ukraine during Trump’s first mandate. “Then, Putin continues to fight and continues to kill the Ukrainians.”
The result does not matter, Putin comes out with at least one symbolic victory: he is getting a large and brilliant stage at a time when it is an international outmach. Two years ago, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing it of war crimes involving the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. The order to find substantially limited potential locations so that the two world leaders meet.
“President Trump, just going to a meeting with Putin, who during most of the democratic world is an de -deic imperialist dictator, is giving him legitimacy,” McFaul said.
The summit will inevitably invite comparisons to a celebrated in Helsinki in 2018.
In a joint press conference with Putin that year, Trump was anxious to forge a personal connection after years of icy bilateral relations between the United States and Russia. Citing Putin’s denial to interfere with the 2016 presidential race, Trump said at that time: “I see no reason why” Russia who entered his victory over Hillary Clinton that year. (He later said that he had been wrong, stating that he believed that the conclusion of the United States intelligence community had occurred Russian interference, but added that “there could also be other people” who interfere in the 2016 elections).
This time, Trump is more experienced and has impatient with the behavior of war by Putin. He has suggested that his wife, Melania Trump, has influenced his vision of Putin, reminding him of Russia’s damage to Ukraine.
For its part, Putin is more diminished. As of this summer, Russian victims were expected to reach 1 million. If you choose, Trump could punish Russia for prolonging war by slapping the secondary sanctions to countries that buy Russian energy, a step that has threatened to take.
“Trump is in a stronger position this time at that first meeting,” Taylor said. “If President Trump enters the meeting with Putin and exercises the political, military and economic leverage he has, there could be a stop the fire.”
Trump goes to the summit facing home difficulties. His administration has fought to stop the reaction of his base on the case of Jeffrey Epstein. Last week, Trump fired the head of the Office of Labor Statistics after a hiring report that showed weak employment growth.
A recent survey at the University of Massachusetts Amherst showed that Trump’s approval index was 38%, a 6 -point drop from April.
“It is quite close to the theoretical floor in this polarized era for approval ratings,” said Alexander Theodoridis, survey director.
Among Trump’s voters, support for their management of the Russian-Ukraine war stood at 64% compared to other issues in which they approved their performance through significantly higher margins, Theodoridis said. A total of 85% of Trump’s 2024 voters approved their performance in immigration matters; 78% favored their work in jobs; and 71% in rates.
Statecraft is a proven way for presidents to improve their position at home. A commander in chief enjoys much more freedom in the configuration of events in the field of foreign policy than when it comes to national issues.
The summit, said Senator Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat that serves in the Foreign Relations Committee, “will change the subject positively for Trump if Putin really defends himself and demands a fair peace for Ukraine.”
“That would be a positive deviation,” Coons added. “But it would be the worst of both worlds if [the summit] It is intended to be a domestic focus on things like rates and Epstein, and he is not strong. ”
An additional incentive for Trump to end the conflict could be a prize that seems to covet. His White House seems to be built a case that has won the Nobel Peace Prize, calling attention to several efforts to reduce tensions at the World Hot Points.
January 31 is the deadline to nominate candidates for the 2026 Prize. The Nobel Selection Committee will announce the winner in October of that year.
On Friday, Trump held a ceremony at the White House to mark a negotiated agreement in the United States that ends hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Questioned by the reporters, the leaders of both countries promoted Trump’s candidacy for an award that three other US presidents have won. Barack Obama was the most recent winner, in 2009.
Even so, the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would simply be a fun Bouche compared to ending the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a power with nuclear weapons.
“Putin is clearly in a weaker position,” Taylor said. “This invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be a disaster for him. And Trump has the letters this time. He has influence, experience and trust. He is anxious to solve this problem and end the war. He sees that Putin is the problem. Putin is standing between him and the end of the war.”
