It’s a scene that would be hard to imagine if there weren’t video evidence.
In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took the stage at the CERAweek energy conference in Houston. Before a room full of 1,200 energy executives and leaders, he reflected on the importance of the Canadian oil and gas sector, and met with multiple standing ovations.
“No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil underground and leave it there,” Trudeau said on stage. “The resource will be developed. Our job is to ensure this is done responsibly, safely and sustainably.”
At the time, Trudeau said environmental protection and resource development went hand in hand, and described progress on these dual priorities as being worked on “in cooperation with our provinces.”
Cut to 2025, and suffice it to say that the oil slick is much less happy with the now outgoing PM. And as for the cooperation of the federal government with the provinces? Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, for her part, would probably disagree.
SEE | Trudeau speaks at 2017 energy conference in Houston:
Purchase of pipelines, unpopular policies
So how did things get so bad?
Even during the early days of his government, Trudeau faced criticism in the oilpatch from those who blamed him for the cancellation of the North Gate Project. His public suggestion in 2017 that the tar sands should be “phased out” It also sparked outrage in Alberta.
Trudeau later purchased the Trans-Mountain pipeline, which has boosted Canadian oil exports. significantly – but his government also introduced a series of policies that have been deeply unpopular in the oilpatch.
A good example is the oil and gas emissions cap, which many in the oilpatch see as a de facto limit on production. If Canada is unable to meet global demand for oil and gas, the thinking goes, that doesn’t mean demand will slow; it will simply mean that other countries will increase production, and there is no warranty those countries will have better environmental or human rights records.
“We’ve been the only country in the world that, for a decade, has been shooting itself in the foot so that a small number of politicians can pat themselves on the back,” said Martha Hall Findlay, the oil company’s former climate chief. Suncor and former Liberal MP, who is now director of the school of public policy at the University of Calgary.
Arguments26:51The History of the Trans Mountain Pipeline
Beyond the oil and gas emissions limit, there is also the Clean fuel regulation, Clean electricity regulations, Bill C-69 and Bill C-59. These are policies that industry insiders consider complicated, onerous, and that unfairly target their industry more than any other.
Richard Masson, also of the University of Calgary’s school of public policy, says the level of disputes and uncertainty around policy has ultimately undermined the government’s ability to meet its climate goals.
A prime example, he says, is the massive carbon capture and storage (CCS) project proposed by Pathways Alliance, a consortium of tar sands companies. CCS involves capturing and storing carbon dioxide underground, although some environmentalists are skeptical on safety and feasibility.
“They’ve spent more than two years arguing about fiscal terms, uncertainty support, you know, that kind of thing,” Masson said. “And that’s why this huge investment that would help decarbonize tar sands production hasn’t taken shape yet.”
qualified praise
Trevor McLeod, former head of Enbridge and the Canada West Foundation, says Trudeau deserves credit for having environmental ideals, even if the execution left much to be desired.
“I think focusing on emissions reductions was deeply necessary and he deserves credit for that, but he seems to intentionally cultivate conflict,” McLeod said. “That perhaps limited their ability to make a real difference to the climate.”
Janetta McKenzie, director of the Pembina Institute’s oil and gas program, also gives Trudeau points for his efforts.
“It’s obviously been a bit of a tumultuous couple of years, but ultimately this government has made progress and moved forward on some pretty key pieces of oil and gas emissions regulation,” said McKenzie, of the energy think tank clean.
In environmental circles, Trudeau has also received criticism for not doing enough crack down on emissions in the oil and gas sector.
In particular, it purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline for 4.5 billion dollarsDespite the cost and the great rejection of environmentalists.
It took a lot of time and money to get the project to the finish line, but since its completion has contributed to a huge boost in oil production. It has allowed the industry to reach international export markets and has raised the GDP of both Alberta and the country.
“The fact that the federal government intervened in the last [minute] was vitally important and has already proven to be immensely valuable not only to the industry, but to the country as a whole,” said Hall Findlay.
Still, he qualified the praise, saying that political uncertainty at the time of the purchase was so significant that the federal government had no choice but to intervene.
Rafi Tahmazian, a retired energy portfolio manager, offered a similar critique.
“Our government got cornered and had to do this and we did it at the expense of Canadians’ pockets,” Tahmazian said, referring to the project’s goals. significant cost overruns.
Oil and gas stocks rose on Monday
Now that Trudeau is set to leave office, the industry is hoping for a more positive relationship with the country’s next leader.
The Canadian press has already reported that oil and gas reserves went up Monday with the news of Trudeau’s resignation.
“Today is a fantastic day for energy investors. It’s a day I’ve been praying for for many, many years,” said Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at investment firm Ninepoint Partners, speaking at BNN Bloomberg.
“I believe today’s announcement is the beginning of the elimination of the political risk discount that applies to our shares.”
Still, it remains to be seen whether a change at Rideau Cottage will mean the end of disputes between the industry and Ottawa.
After all, history has shown that even early enthusiasm It doesn’t always turn into a long and happy relationship.
