A handful of midterms early in the new year will serve as the first tests of the political environment following the victories of Donald Trump and the Republicans in November.
In the early months of 2025, there will be special legislative elections in Virginia, a battleground race in Wisconsin that will once again determine the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court, and special elections for the current (and former) electeds of the Trump cabinet.
While these races are not as flashy as the presidential politics that have consumed Americans for most of the past two years, they will attract a lot of money and attention during a bye year in which the GOP looks to build on its momentum and the Party Democrat seeks to regain his balance.
These are the key state and local races to watch during the first part of 2025.
Virginia special legislative elections
A pair of special elections in Loudoun County, Virginia, on Jan. 7 that will determine control of the state legislature will send voters back to the polls just weeks after the presidential election.
Voters will select a new lawmaker to fill the seat vacated by state senator Suhas Subramanyam, who was elected to Congress in the November elections. They will also fill a vacant state House seat left by a candidate who resigned to run for Subramanyam’s seat.
In the state Senate race, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan faces Republican Tumay Harding. In the state House race, Democrat JJ Singh will face Republican Ram Venkatachalam.
Democrats are the favorites to win both races, as district areas leaned strongly for Kamala Harris in the presidential election, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. But the margins in the election, which is expected to be low turnout, could offer a glimpse of which way the political winds are blowing in a state where Republicans have recently managed to make up ground.
Republican Glenn Youngkin won Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial race just a year after Joe Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020. Virginia will hold another closely watched race to succeed Youngkin in November 2025, following a presidential election in which Trump reduced the Democrats’ lead to less than 6 points.
“Virginia is the first to come out with elections after big national elections,” said National Conference of State Legislatures Executive Director Tim Storey.
“There’s a pattern in Virginia that goes against the previous national cycle,” he added, “so if they’re Virginia Democrats… it’ll probably give them a little bit of a stronger hand heading into the election.”
The two races will also determine the partisan balance of each legislative chamber.
Following Subramanyam’s resignation, Democrats have a 20-19 majority in the Virginia State Senate. If Democrats lose the special election, control of the chamber would shift to Republicans, because Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has the authority to break the tie.
In the House of Delegates, Democrats currently have a 51-49 advantage because Srinivasan’s resignation does not take effect until January 7. A Republican victory would result in a 50-50 tie. A tie vote in the chamber results in a defeat. In similar situations in the past, both parties signed a power-sharing agreement in the state House.
Whether Republicans gain control of one or both chambers could be particularly significant for Youngkin in the final year of his term, potentially laying the groundwork for a run for higher office.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Race
Less than two years ago, liberals gained control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years.
In April, ideological control of the crucial swing state caucus is once again at stake.
As was the case in 2023, the April 1 election to replace liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, 73, is likely to be an expensive and bitter race. And it promises to include many of the same hot-button issues — like abortion rights and redistricting — that defined the race two years earlier.
Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge, is running as a liberal in the race, while Brad Schimel, a Republican former state attorney general who serves as a Waukesha County judge, is running as a conservative. The court is technically nonpartisan, but candidates can take public stances on political issues and can receive endorsements from the state’s political parties during their campaigns.
That was the case in 2023, when liberal Janet Protasiewicz focused her successful campaign on supporting abortion rights and opposing the state’s gerrymandered maps, two issues that were due before the court after she was sworn in.
Republicans say they are prepared to make the race over the entire court and the power that comes with it.
“It’s not just about a seat on the court. “It’s a court check for three or four years,” said Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Schimming. Referring to a recent decision by a state judge to overturn a landmark anti-union law signed into law by then-Gov. Scott Walker in 2011 added that “reforms have been in the pipeline for decades.” That case is almost certain to end up before the state Supreme Court next year and is likely to loom large in the race.
There are no multiple candidates on either side, allowing both Crawford and Schimel to take a look at each other immediately before the general election. (In 2023, several candidates ran on both sides, resulting in a fractured conservative base.)
Another key difference from the last Supreme Court race is that this time Republicans are much more emboldened after Trump’s victory in Wisconsin over Harris. In 2023, Democrats were coming off a series of statewide successes in the years since Trump’s victory in the state in 2016.
However, Democrats have signaled their intention to try to tie Schimel to a broader Trump-centered Republican brand in hopes that progressives will feel energized in the off-year elections.
“It’s going to be a different electorate compared to a presidential year,” Wisconsin Democratic Party spokesman Joe Oslund said, adding that a potentially low-turnout race would mean “we’re going after Trump.”
Schimming, asked if he thought Democrats could make Trump a vulnerability for Schimel, dismissed the idea.
“Frankly, they just finished making that mistake,” he said.
Special House Elections
Meanwhile, a handful of special elections will also be held next year for safe Republican seats in the U.S. House of Representatives to replace members of Congress Trump named to his Cabinet.
They include seats currently held by Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s pick to be his national security adviser, and Rep. Elise Stafanik, R-New York, Trump’s pick to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
There will also be a special election for the seat held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz. Florida Republican, who resigned after Trump tapped him as attorney general. Gaetz ultimately withdrew from consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied.
Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd announced that the special primary elections for Waltz and Gaetz’s seats will be held on January 28 and that the special general elections for both seats will be held on April 1.
Waltz is scheduled to resign from the House on Jan. 20, after Trump formally takes office. His nomination does not require Senate confirmation.
Stefanik, whose position requires Senate confirmation, has not revealed the timing of her resignation. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul must set a special election date within 90 days of her departure under state law.
While all three districts are solidly Republican, the margins could provide insight into how voters feel about the early weeks of Trump’s second term.
