Shortly after Premier Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith formally signed their memorandum of understanding on Thursday, Smith joked to reporters in Calgary that he would love for “pipelines to be boring again.”
It’s not clear that pipelines have ever been boring: they have been associated with political tumult in Canada for at least 70 years. And given the big questions still tied to both the idea and the reality of an interprovincial pipeline – the unresolved work of reconciliation, the lack of a comprehensive response to the present and future threat of climate change, the fear of national unity – it is difficult to imagine that a pipeline could easily become boring at this point.
So the Carney and Smith memo, at least on its own, was probably never going to allow oil pipelines mundane – even before Quebec MP Steven Guilbeault called the premier Thursday afternoon and told him he was resigning from cabinet in protest.
“Changes in our relationship with the United States have caused profound disruptions affecting the global order, diplomatic relations and the economy. I understand and share the Prime Minister’s efforts to ensure that our country remains united and that all regions feel they have a voice,” Guilbeault said in a statement, acknowledging the exceptional circumstances that framed Thursday’s memorandum of understanding.
“Despite this difficult economic context, I remain one of those for whom environmental issues must remain a priority.”
Guilbeault’s resignation — the rare Cabinet resignation over a disagreement over government policy — adds to and underscores the test of national and political leadership that Mark Carney signed up for when he signed that memorandum.
The give and take of the MOU
Whatever Carney’s goal was this week, he might have hoped to deprive oil and gas advocates of the convenient argument that the only thing standing in the way of a new pipeline was a Liberal government in Ottawa. That argument always clashed with the reality of what happened on The last time someone tried to build an oil pipeline through northern British Columbia.but this MOU effectively eliminates that argument entirely.
At the beginning of this year, with C-5The Carney government cleared a possible regulatory path for large infrastructure projects. Now, the federal government is abandoning a Proposed cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector and formally confirming the will to modify the Tanker ban covering British Columbia’s northern coast.
The memorandum commits the Alberta government to supporting a strengthened pricing system for industrial emissions. And getting a Conservative prime minister to agree to that is a potentially significant development for both the short- and long-term future of Canadian climate policy, especially since federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has positioned his party in vehement opposition to that policy.
It may also be no small feat that Alberta’s premier has formally committed to the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, an idea that Poilievre has disparaged.
Premier Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced an energy deal that includes a path forward for a new bitumen pipeline to the British Columbia coast. Smith tells Power & Politics that he has “every expectation that once it’s on the list of major projects, one or more companies will step forward to build it.” British Columbia Premier David Eby says he worries the pipeline project will become an “energy vampire for limited federal attention.”
But in exchange for a deal on one major climate policy, the Carney government has potentially sacrificed another. Pending an agreement on industrial carbon pricing, Alberta will be excluded from federal clean electricity regulations. And if Alberta is excluded from that policy, it stands to reason that other provinces will soon demand their own exclusions.
Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, warned in a statement Thursday that a waiver of clean electricity regulations and an easing of methane regulations “could trigger a race to the bottom on climate policy as other provinces seek special treatment and side deals on federal laws or regulations they oppose.”
The federal government has also tied up the future of the long-promised Road proposal to a new pipeline. For years, a consortium of major oil companies has stressed their enthusiasm for advancing a major carbon capture and storage project in Alberta. But the memorandum of understanding now says a pipeline is a “prerequisite” for Pathways to move forward.
Perhaps Carney didn’t like Trudeau’s approach to climate policy. Perhaps you believe these sacrifices are a small price to pay to solidify the industrial carbon price and undermine the threat to national unity posed by an unhappy Alberta.
But while it eliminates anyone’s ability to seriously claim that the federal government is a major obstacle to a pipeline, Carney has not completely moved away from the question of whether or not a pipeline will be built. The memo describes a new pipeline as a “priority” and promises federal participation in trilateral discussions involving the BC government and BC First Nations.
Unless or until a private sector proponent steps forward and says it would like to build a pipeline, such commitments could be moot. But what happens if a private proponent steps forward and discussions with the BC government and First Nations fail to produce broad acceptance for a pipeline?
That question will now remain in the air. And David Eby, the aggrieved premier of British Columbia, has already worried loudly that a move to build an oil pipeline could cause First Nations to withdraw support for existing liquefied natural gas projects in his province.
Departure, Guilbeault
In the midst of all this, Guilbeault’s exit is evidently dramatic, but also almost poetic.
Guilbeault himself is a kind of rorschach test. Within the environmental movement, he was considered a credible pragmatist. Within Conservative political circles, he was portrayed – at least after joining Justin Trudeau’s cabinet – as the anti-oil bogeyman.
“For some I am radical. And for others I am not radical enough,” he told me in an interview shortly after becoming environment minister in 2021.
What may now have been largely forgotten is that Guilbeault’s decision to run as a Liberal candidate in 2019 was all the more notable because he was doing it. after The Trudeau government had decided to purchase the Trans Mountain (TMX) pipeline and expansion project. The famous environmentalist was joining a government that was actively building an oil pipeline.
Steven Guilbeault has resigned as Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture, but will remain a Member of Parliament. His resignation comes the same day Premier Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding on the path forward for a new bitumen pipeline to the British Columbia coast.
Before using public funds to seize that pipeline, the Trudeau Liberals spent significant political effort and resources to build buy-in for that expansion, including a $1.5 billion marine protection plan. And those efforts were largely successful: despite fears that the Liberals would be eliminated in BC after passing TMX, the party won 11 seats in the province in 2019.
In some corners, however, resource politics and Western alienation came to be seen as major failings of the Trudeau era. At least it’s fair to say he didn’t make pipelines boring.
Carney came to office wanting to turn the page and do things differently. Their memorandum of understanding is a significant example of this. And in some ways, for Carney, Guilbeault’s departure may even be a useful message to some voters that this is no longer Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government (although Liberal strategists will now have to calculate how many environmentally minded voters might follow Guilbeault out).
But Guilbeault’s departure is, above all, a reminder that holding together a large, diverse group – whether a cabinet, a federation or a coalition of voters – is never easy and that dealing with the difficult and necessary politics of building a pipeline cannot be boring.
