New Delhi: “We will follow what Kejriwal did in Delhi.” No, Suvendu AdhikariOpposition leader (LOP) in the West Bengal Assembly, it was not referring to model schools or Mohalla clinics. On the other hand, the former TMC strong man was drawing parallel to the expulsion without ceremonies of Vijender Gupta of the Delhi Assembly when AAP enjoyed a supermay, juxtap on the recent elevation of Gupta as speaker. Suvendu’s statement was that once the BJP assumes power in Bengal next year, the MLA Muslims TMC who manage to win will be collected and expelled from the Assembly, just when Gupta had been eliminated.
A better known Dynast politician for defeating Mamata Banerjee in the 2021 assembly elections since his homemade Nandigram territory, Suvendu has constantly intensified his antimuse rhetoric since his induction to the BJP. However, even for its standards, this last comment has sent shock waves through Bengal’s political panorama, attracting strong reprints of the opposition ranks, including the main minister itself. Speaking from the assembly, Mammate Banerje promised to protect the interests of all communities and warned Suvendu against “playing with fire.” Meanwhile, a medium -level congress leader, former MLA Viktor, has presented a FIR one against the LOP. However, the crucial question is why Suvendu is adopting such a incendiary tone when state elections are still more than a year away.
Decoding of the declaration
For many observers, the last outbreak of Suvendu is a desperate attempt to maintain its intact flock amid the rumors that almost eight MLA BJP are about to defect. In 2021, the BJP had increased from three to a record of 77 seats, largely to the back of a change of mass votes from the left and the congress. This catapulted the party to the position of the main opposition, with Suvendu playing a fundamental role in change. As expected, he was rewarded with the LOP Post, making him the most visible face of Bengal BJP, gradually eclipsessing veterans as Dilip Ghosh and Sukanta Majumdar. However, later electoral results have not favored BJP. His number in the assembly has constantly decreased, with an unofficial count of around 65. Lok Sabha account of the Party in Bengala was shrugged from 18 to 12. Subsequently, he could not capitalize on the public anger for the incident of RG KAR, where the urban pockets of the state exploded in protests on the rape and murder of a young doctor. In the partial elections held after the protests, BJP won nothing even losing the seat he had previously had. The dropout of Haldia Mla Tapasi Mondal further weakened Suvendu’s grip, especially since Haldia, a crucial port city in her native district of Purba Medinipur, has been considered for a long time her municipality of Pocket. A riot in his backyard pointed to TMC that even Purba Midnapore could be at stake in 2026. In this context, Subendu’s aggressive rhetoric serves as a strategic stratagema to change the approach of the precarious position of BJP to the most convenient narrative of the Hindu-Muslman polarization, which guarantees that the former voters of BJP Changed to the bejp do not retire to Hindu’s narration.
Dilemma of the Left Congress
For the left, which ruled Bengal for more than three decades, the crisis is existential. His participation of votes collapsed from 26% in 2016 to just over 5% in 2021. The performance of the party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections remained dazzled, reflecting the struggles of the congress. Both parties have not been able to understand the evolutionary political climate of Bengal, where the policy of well -being and religious identity now determines electoral fortune, a marked exit of the days when Ironclad ideology only dictated voting patterns. The lack of prominent mass leaders of the left accelerated its decline, while its alliance with Congress has thrown minimum electoral dividends due to limited votes transfer capabilities. However, RG Kar’s protests backed by the left supported the forces briefly revived interest in them among Bengal’s intellectuality. If this translates into electoral profits, it is still uncertain, but the renewed Suvendu tone threatens to derail any organizational resurgence that the left may have expected. As expected, the left has maintained a position guarded on the subject, criticizing both TMC and BJP. Their votes are scattered throughout the state, insufficient enough to win seats but enough to play spoiler in a really close contest. That leverage is precisely what Suvendu seeks to neutralize.
The situation of Congress is slightly different. Its voting base is mainly concentrated in three districts of northern Bengal: Malda, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur, where it competes with the TMC for the Muslim votes, particularly in Malda and Murshidabad. As expected, the part has taken a more combative position than the left, registering vociferant protests, presenting FIR and promising to safeguard Muslim interests. However, political analysts argue that with the deepening of religious failures, these tactics may not be enough.
An electoral strategy calculated?
Political commentator Sibaji Pratim Basu believes that Suvendu’s statements are not impulsive but part of a calculated strategy. Bengal’s Muslim population is around 31%, and most vote for TMC. Mamata Banerje understands that even ensuring 25-30% of the Hindu vote ensures a decisive victory under the first-step system. With extensive welfare schemes aimed at women, TMC begins from an advantageous position. Suvendu’s goal is to fracture this voting bank, trying to consolidate the Hindu votes in favor of BJP. However, Professor Basu rules out this as an impossible dream. He also believes that while Narendra Modi remains the prime minister and the BJP has national power, it is unlikely that Bengal’s Muslim voters leave Mamata Banerjee. He suggests that only a change in Delhi’s political landscape could trigger a realignment of Muslim votes in Bengal, but until then, the TMC has little to worry.
Himanta Biswa Sarma Playbook
Suvendu probably understands this reality, which explains why he has abandoned efforts to attract Muslim voters. Instead, the Play Book of Assam’s Prime Minister Biswa Sarma is emulating. In Assam, where Muslims form a significant demographic group, Himanta has aggressively consolidated the Hindu votes by raising the voice against the ‘Muslims of Miya, which originally came from the news of Bangladesh, which represents its presence in Upper Assam and portrays them as a demographic threat to the communities of indigent assamages. From the Assembly, Himanta made it clear that he would not allow Muslims of Miya ‘to dominate Assam’s political discourse. Suvendu seems to be adopting a similar approach in Bengal.
Mamata Banerjee, while condemning Suvendu’s comments, also took the opportunity to attack his changing political loyalties, resorting to that he would easily change side by side if he was offered the right deal. The Western Bengal CM denounced Suvendu’s comments as improper of a leader of his stature, accusing him of making polarizing statements deliberately during Ramzan to cause Muslim feelings. Interestingly, Mamata also said that he had instructed the minister and the mayor of Kolkata, Firchad Hakim, and others to refrain from religious comments tacitly recognizing that the accusations of opposition of appeasement policy, although large exaggerated, were not completely unfounded. She intelligently agreed to Prime Minister Modi in the debate, questioning why Suvendu disagrees with Muslim communities in Bengal, but remains silent when he modified Arab nations during his visits abroad. Invoking the teachings of Ramakrishna and Vivekananda, Mamata accused Suvendu of promoting a version of Hinduism incompatible with the Scriptures and seers. While Mamata exercised a restriction, one of the MLA of his party, Humayun Kabir, has already threatened Subendu Adhikari of serious consequences if he does not withdraw his statement. The BJP leader, although he did not waste time to reject Humayun’s demand.
Way ahead for Fiestas No BJP
The act of mammate equilibrium is evident: it seeks to reassure its Muslim base without alienating Hindu voters. Even on the issue of Bangladesh, she has taken a proactive position, advancing BJP attempts to polarize voters, repeatedly questioning what the Modi government is doing to protect Hindu interests there. Mamata Banerje has also heated for ISF, a party that predominantly attends to the Muslim components. This is to counteract Aimim, who has already announced that he will compete in all seats in Bengal. He believes that the State has about 40% of Muslim votes and deserves a party like AIMIM. The India Alliance remains in Limbo and TMC has already announced that it will dispute the assembly elections alone, such as Lok Sabha surveys. While the Congress and the left may or may not ally, their challenge remains formidable, they must first be established as a credible opposition force.
For now, Suvendu Adhikari has assured that the political discourse in Bengala remains firmly focused on polarization, a calculated bet. With Mamata Banerje, sailing the tightrope between reassuring Muslim voters and addressing Hindu concerns, the BJP has its cut work. But at least you don’t have to worry too much about significantly sharing the space of the opposition with the left congress.
