Ontario New Democrats will issue a judgment on the leadership of Marit Stiles this weekend in a mandatory review that occurs only one week after a similar vote of the provincial liberals forced the resignation of their party leader.
Stiles said that he is not giving anything for granted when it comes to the review, but that he has not heard rumors that his work is in danger. That is in contrast to Bonnie Crombie, who faced an internal challenge to dismiss it while heading to a party meeting last weekend, and resigned hours after receiving only 57 percent of the support of the delegates.
Stiles said that summer passed by registering with party members throughout the province, stopping in about 50 corridors during a tour.
“I feel very good about it,” he said about the vote of the review. “I never give anything for granted, of course, but we are joining to mobilize, organize and win.”
The leadership review occurs more than six months after the NDP occupied second place in the seat count in a rapid vote called by Doug Ford. The prime minister won his third consecutive majority government in an election dominated by the rates of President Donald Trump and the commercial war between the United States and Canada.
The Prime Minister of Ontario, Doug Ford, is the first leader since the 1950s to win three consecutive majorities in the province. Lorenda Reddekopp of CBC breaks down the last reaction and analysis of the electoral results on Thursday.
NDP lost participation in the vote, but remained the official opposition
The NDP clung to 27 seats, four of the previous vote in 2022. They are still the official opposition. But the new Democrats finished a disappointing third in the popular vote with 18 percent, far from the ontarium liberals that ended with almost 30 percent, but only 14 seats.
Liberals now find an uncertain future, about to launch a new leadership career. Stiles said it will be important that the NDP remain focused on the needs of voters, not on their own internal dynamics of the party.
“They have to do a search for the soul to discover who they are,” he said about Ontario’s liberals.
“People need to know that they have someone in their corner. And I think that stability will be really important at this time,” he said about his own party.
The NDP strategist Mélanie Richer, director of Earnscliffe Strategies, said he does not anticipate that Stiles faces any internal movement to expel it as a leader. He would like to see the Provincial Party focus on fighting the “progressive primary” against the liberals now, and not waiting until the next elections.
That means increasing Stiles profile in Ontario in the coming months and developing policies that position the party as the Government waiting.
“They need to work to be the viable alternative to the Premier Ford and the progressive conservatives,” he said. “And the story can’t be who is the finalist?”
Freedom of liberal leadership offers opportunity: strategist
The strategist of NDP Erin Morrison said that the “chaos” within the Liberal Party of Ontario gives the new Democrats the opportunity to establish themselves as the voice of the central opposition to the Ford government. She expects Stiles to hit that tone this weekend in her comments to the delegates in the Convention.
“Marit Stiles has a great opportunity,” said Morrison, Vice President of Texture Communications. “This is the time for her. It has to capitalize, and can capitalize on being noisy, being strong and focusing on solutions.”
Stiles was acclaimed as a leader in 2023, replacing Andrea Horwath, who had led the party since 2009. This will be the first convention in the person of the new Democrats since 2019, and Stiles’s First since it became a leader.
The Professor of Political Science of the McMaster University, Peter Graefe, said he expects Stiles to survive the weekend vote, but he does not see much emotion for her within the party at this time.
“It is not clear to me that there is much enthusiasm for Marit Stiles, even among the bases of the NDP,” he said. “She can win the vote. I think the question is: Are you winning the hearts of its members and their base base, so that they leave and do the necessary work if the NDP will improve its position?”
Mulcair’s expulsion has lessons before the review: richer
The surprising expulsion of the former leader of the Federal NDP Thomas Mulcair during a review of the party in 2016 will also look out as a warning story in the recent history of the party. The vote surprised the experts and the members of the party alike, and the professor of political science at the University of Trent, Cristine de Clercy, said that leaders cannot assume that any leadership review is an inevitable conclusion.
“I think it is worth remembering that the parties are internal organizations of a very closed circuit,” he said. “It is difficult for us to know exactly what is happening inside. Who is in charge, who is not satisfied, who is satisfied?”
Richer was part of the Mulcair tour team in 2016 and was present for the vote that cost him his work. She said that the hard lesson learned during that experience was that a leader needs to be in front of people unhappy with the status quo after a disappointing loss, such as the federal NDP suffered in the 2015 elections.
She thinks Stiles has done it this summer, she said.
“You have to meet with people who do not understand the address that you are going and who are not necessarily satisfied with the result,” he said. “You have to give them a game plan of what is coming later.”
Stiles are expected to address the delegates in the Convention this weekend in Niagara Falls, Ontario, on Saturday. The results of the leadership review are expected to be published that day.
