Saskatchewan has been almost completely blue in federal politics since the Canada Conservative Party first directed a list of candidates in the province in 2004.
While the liberals and the NDP have collected occasional seats, the 14 federal passages of Saskatchewan are still a strength for conservatives.
With a federal election that is coming, CBC News approached experts to obtain their views on the state of the race in the province.
Mark Carney won the liberal leadership with an overwhelming majority, but will its popularity be translated to Canadians? The main political correspondent of CBC News, Rosemary Barton, breaks down what Carney’s victory changes for the imminent federal elections with the National broadcast panel.
‘The most conservative province’
There are 14 federal districts in Saskatchewan. The conservatives have controlled them all since 2019.
Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, said it is unlikely to change this choice.
“My opinion is that Saskatchewan is probably the most conservative province in the country, rather than Alberta,” said Westlake.
Jim Farney, director of the Johnson Shoyama Public Policy School, agreed.
“Fundamentally, we look like a blue province,” Farney said.
Farney said at this time, Saskatchewan probably supports conservatives than Saskatchewan’s party in the province.
Westlake said that Saskatchewan is a very rural province, and an urban urban division will make it difficult for liberals or the NDP to obtain enough votes.
While Alberta can see herself as a firm conservative province, there are pockets of Calgary and Edmonton that are hospitable for liberals or the NDP, Westlake said.
“It is not clear that those same pockets exist in Saskatchewan,” said Westlake.
Changes in the limit put at least 1 driving at stake
The electoral limits of all 14 Saskatchewan currents changed as part of the 2022 electoral redistribution process.
The experts with the experts who spoke CBC said that the changes will probably have little effect on the results, except in one place.
The three agree that the DESNETHÉ River – Missinippi – Churchill is now at stake for the liberals and the PND.
“Since Meadow Lake separates and added to the old driving of Battlefords – Lloydminster, a large part of the conservative vote has left,” said Eric Grenier, survey analyst and creator of Thewrit.CA. “It is enough to make driving very difficult for conservatives.”
The new liberal leader Mark Carly says that his discussion on Monday with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau covered relations between the United States and Canada and national security.
Westlake said he observed the data of the past elections, and if the current limits had been used in 2019 or 2021, the driving “would have voted NDP in 2019 and liberal in 2021”.
“That driving becomes really interesting,” said Westlake.
While the NDP of Saskatchewan almost swept all seats in the cities of the province in the provincial elections of 2024, experts say it is unlikely that we see something similar at the federal level.
“The provincial and federal elections occur in their own different environments,” said Westlake.
The questions of the polls have changed
Farney and Westlake told CBC News in separate interviews that if it had been called to an choice in autumn, it would probably have resulted in an election framed around affordableness or if the economy was fine.
Then Donald Trump arrived.
“Now is the much more existential question of who is better to deal with Donald Trump and tariffs,” Farney said.
Having a breed focused on affordability would have been bad for the liberals, said Westlake. As a long -term title government, liberals will be blamed for problems with economics, medical care and inflation, he said.
Rehewing the question about Trump and tariffs means that liberals “are almost almost at the same type of disadvantage against conservatives” that they would have been in the cost of living, said Westlake.
Farney and Westlake said that can make the elections more competitive in general, it does not even develop that way in Saskatchewan.
Both said that the carbon tax will continue to play a role in Saskatchewan dependent on resources, even if this does not end up being the conservative leader of the “choice of carbon tax”, Pierre Poilievre, had been asking.
Farney said that conservatives are likely to focus on the message that “the economy will improve when the government becomes smaller and reduces its taxes.”
“As a political messaging operation that is much easier to sell,” said Farney.
Westlake said that even with carbon tax that falls in disgrace among liberals, it will continue to be a metaphorical weapon for conservatives.
Even retiring from politics or promising to end it is unlikely that it prevents liberals from being labeled on the subject.
“Conservatives can still ask the question, why did you support this and why your party supported this in the last 10 years?” Westlake said.
