By 2050, the number of cancer and death cases is expected to be triggered, according to a New report of The lancet Journal Medical published today. Researchers say that the trend is also expected to develop in Canada, and that medical care systems must now be prepared to avoid preventable cancer deaths and medical care expenses.
In 2023, there were 18.5 million new cancer cases worldwide, excluding non -melanoma skin cancers. By 2050, this number is expected to grow at 30.5 million.
The number of cancer deaths is expected to increase even more dramatically by 2050. In 2023 there were 10.4 million cancer deaths. In 2050, researchers project 18.6 million people will die of cancer.
That reflects a 75 percent increase in cancer deaths since 2024, researchers say.
The three cancers that kill most people around the world from 2024: cancers in the pipe and lungs; cancers in the colon and the rectum; And stomach cancer is expected to increase in 2050, the authors say.
In high -income countries, such as Canada, the increase is mainly driven by aging and growing populations, the authors of the study say.
“There will definitely be more people who will have cancer in Canada, not because cancer is increasing, but simply because people in Canada live longer,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of sciences of health metric at the University of Washington and one of the study authors.
When the researchers standardized the data, to see if the probability that a person obtained cancer had changed independently of their age, discovered that cancer mortality rates were actually in decline in high -income countries such as Canada. From 1990 to 2023, cancer rates decreased by 9 percent per 100,000, while cancer deaths decreased by 29 percent.
Mokdad says that in Canada, doctors are diagnosing cases of cancer rather than in other countries.
“You have universal medical attention. Many countries do not have that, including the country in which I am now, America,” said Mokdad.
In some low and medium -sized countries, cancer rates are in the opposite direction, according to the investigation.
Countries like Lebanon have seen increases in rates and cancer deaths, even after controlling age. Mokdad says that it is due to other risk factors such as smoking, exposure to environmental pollution and drinking alcohol, which is increasing in some of these countries.
Modifiable risk factors such as tobacco consumption and an unhealthy diet were related to 42 percent of cancer deaths worldwide, researchers say. Of these, the use of tobacco was identified as a leading risk factor, which the researchers found that it contributed to 21 percent of cancer deaths in general.
Mokdad says that in countries with limited equipment to catch and treat early cancer, researchers found disproportionate levels of cancer deaths.
Canada needs to prepare
Even in high -income countries such as Canada, where mortality rates are going down, the fact remains: the absolute number of cases and cancer deaths are expected to increase in the coming decades.
Mokdad says that medical care systems should prepare to satisfy that need to expand cancer detection and prepare to treat more cancer patients.
If we do not, there will be a human cost: the cancers that catch too late to deal effectively, and people who die of cancers who could have been treated effectively, says Mokdad.
Mokdad says that if we do not begin to prepare ourselves now for more cases of cancer, there will also be economic consequences: the cancers that are trapped at a later stage may be more expensive and difficult to treat.
Cancer cases and deaths have increased in Canada for decades, with cases and deaths that almost doubled from 1990 to 2023, according to study authors data.
Dr. Keith Stewart, director of Princess Margaret Cancer Care Network in Toronto, says he already feels the hospital network of a greater number of cancer patients in their hospital.
“We are beginning to find problems of having enough chairs for people to enter and receive their … chemotherapy. We are beginning to feel it in hospital hospitalization beds for sophisticated technologies such as bone marrow transplantation or CAR-T cell therapy.”
Stewart says that the hospital has been able to handle the high volume so far, but cares about the future.
“Maybe we have not planned well enough to deal with that increase in volume as the population ages and particularly as more patients survive more,” he said.
Stewart says that hospitals must adopt a multiple approach. They need more beds and better appointment programming systems to deal with more patients in person, and more investment is needed to improve home care. All this requires careful planning with the provincial authorities.
Stewart says that patients who survive long after their cancer diagnosis have their own set of needs, and those support also need investment.
