Pierre Poilievre is trying to win young people when he says he needs the “greatest electoral participation in Canadian history” to reverse a liberal victory that some surveys suggest is an inevitable conclusion, political experts say.
Recently eligible voters, specifically men, are more likely to support Poilievre conservatives, but are also the least probable demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of the voting research firm and survey based in Ottawa, Abacus Data Data.
“He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of participation,” said Coletto.
“You need to find a way to motivate younger, less reliable and less likely voters, people who had never voted in an election before.”
The CBC survey tracker, which compiles publicly available surveys, has conservatives with a level of popularity, 38.7 percent, which would normally translate into a majority government on the day of the elections.
But the support of voters has joined around liberals and conservatives and has turned this choice into a bipartisan race, suggests surveys. Liberals have 42.5 percent support, according to the aggregator.
The great participation is the way to victory: Pailievre
Pailievre launched for record participation in a Calgary rally on Friday. The organizers say that more than 3,000 people heard their call.
“Are you going to communicate with all the people who may have renounced life and tell them that there is hope if they vote for a change?” Pailievre told the crowd.
“We need the greatest electoral participation in Canadian history to generate the change that Canadians need.”
To win, Coletto said that conservatives must overcome the advantage that liberals have among major voters, the demographic group with the most likely to vote.
In 2015, Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister in part because he won the young voters, Coletto said.
“And so, in a way, ironically, in reality, Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate Trudeau’s success for 10 years to get those less reliable voters this time.”
Conservatives are likely to wait for the surveys to underline their support, something that happened in the two previous elections, Coletto said.
But he added that the missing surveys in one or two percentage points will probably not change the result of this year’s elections.
“The only remaining variable is to overcome and overcome its competitors.”
The conservatives won the popular vote in the 2021 and 2019 elections, but also lost those elections.
Amanda Galbraith, a conservative strategist, does not believe that the appeal of the party for record participation is remarkable. She says that each part is making an impulse to vote at this time, and this is how the conservatives are doing.
She also believes, however, conservatives are pointing to a less likely demographic group that you see the vote as a duty.
“It is one thing to participate [with young people]”Galbraith said, co -founder and partner of the communications firm Oyster Group.” It is another thing to vote or vote for their friends and colleagues. “
The political parties trying to demolish the regular governments generally benefit from greater participation, since it generally shows the appetite of the voters for the change, said Éric Grenier, the survey analyst directed by the CBC survey tracker and founded Thewrit.ca.
“But I question whether this is a normal election. Obviously there has been a high commitment in the elections,” he said, pointing out the commercial war caused by the president of the United States, Donald Trump.
‘Go to Ontario’
Canada’s elections said approximately 7.3 million Canadians, a record, cast their vote during the advanced voting period. That is a 25 percent increase in 2021.
Geneviève Tellier, Professor of Political Science at the University of Ottawa, considers that Puzzling Poilievre would require record participation in Calgary, a conservative strength, since it would mainly have the effect of filling the margin of victory of the party there, apart from the few seats that liberals aim to fly.
Tellier suggested that Pailievre no longer hopes to win the elections.
“Why are you appealing the voters who will not change the numbers of the mountains you will win?” She asked. “If the objective is to increase the [percentage] of popular support [that makes sense but] If the strategy is to win more seats, then go to Ontario. “
Calgary Stop criticized
The conservative decision to visit Calgary in the last days of the campaign raised the eyebrows of some party agents who talked to CBC News on Friday.
Two of them said the game should be doing a play for swing voters elsewhere, since there is little time before Monday’s elections.
The rapid concentration, held in a private Jet Hangar near Calgary International Airport, was announced as a “whistle stop” on the road to BC, a crucial province for the electoral hopes of the party.
Galbraith said it really doesn’t matter where conservatives request record participation, since the key messages of political manifestations propagate in line easily.
It was in Edmonton where former Prime Minister Stephen Harper supported Poilievre, “but he was transmitted throughout the country, so it doesn’t matter where he does more,” he said.
