Ottawa avoided a trade setback. But Trump could come for supply management next


Dreams come true. The president of the United States, Donald Trump, wanted Canada’s tax on American technology companies to disappear on Friday, and for Sunday, he had done so.

Mainly, there was a sense of surprise that the federal government would play such a valuable letter soon. The Digital Services Tax (DST), which was supposed to begin to collect on Monday, was unpopular with the United States government and the technological giants to which it was headed, for example, finish and Amazon, and, conveniently, it was not especially loved by business groups in the home.

When annulled, Canadian negotiators paid a type of toll on the road to a commercial agreement with the United States, since it held the rolling conversations. But the measure could support Canada against the wall on the most thorny issue of supplies management.

“I think we can expect them to go after [supply management] In addition, because it has been a long-standing irritant, “said Fen Hamson, professor of international affairs and co-president of the group of experts on Canada-United States relationships at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Triumph It has long opposed The dairy system administered by Canada’s supply, complaining about what he characterizes how high rates of rates in US dairy exports. UU. To Canada (more about that later). It made it a problem prior to the 2018 negotiation of the Canada-Usexico (Cusma) agreement, but finally allowed this free trade agreement to be approved without addressing it.

Now, Trump has made a stench on our cheese again. He affirmed on Friday that Canada has accused American farmers a 400 percent rate “for years” in dairy products.

Look | Why Trump hate dairy supply management:

How the Daadese Dairy Supply Management System works, and why Trump hates it

Donald Trump is not a fan of the Canada dairy supplies management system, repeatedly attacking him in his first mandate and chasing him again while preparing to return to the White House. Ellen Mauro de CBC meets with Canadian dairy farmers and explains why the system has the elected president of the United States so irritated.

But when it comes to dairy products, Trump’s desire will not come true so easily, thanks to the recently approved bill C-202, which prohibits supply management from being used as a negotiation chip in commercial negotiations.

The bill has been criticized because potentially links Ottawa’s hands if the president of the United States issues an ultimatum aimed at Canadian dairy products, by extension, threatening to disturb the Parliament that, from federal elections, has mainly reserved partisan differences against Trump’s threats.

The additional difficulty “has certainly registered in the White House,” said Hampson.

‘Tremendous’ power

In the south, the discarded dst was acclaimed as a victory. Trump’s commercial representative, Howard Lutnick, thanked Canada for eliminating him, calling him a “decisive factor for any commercial agreement” with the United States, while the Economic Advisor of the White House, Kevin Hassett, said he eliminated the tax paved the way to renew the conversations.

The White House Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, seemed to gloat, saying that Carney “yielded” to Trump’s demands and that it was a mistake that Canada promised the tax first.

Look | Carney says that negotiations were restarted:

Canada and US

Prime Minister Mark Carney says he had a “good” conversation with the president of the United States, Donald Trump, on Sunday, and that the two leaders will continue working to reach an agreement before July 21. The Federal Government rejected the digital services tax over the weekend after Trump stopped all commercial conversations.

But if there was any indication of what will come next, it was from Pete Hoekstra. The United States ambassador to Canada, speaking in CBC’s Power and politics On Monday night, he said that Bodye would push Parliament to put the supply management on the table again if an agreement between the United States and Canada depended on it.

“I firmly believe that if … the prime minister and the president reached a commercial agreement, and for any reason they included something that Parliament said ‘cannot be done that’, the prime minister could probably find a way of making Parliament do [his] Will, “he said.

“Prime Ministers and Presidents have a lot of power.”

If Trump really would like to exert economic pressure on Canada, “I could try this exact tactic and say: ‘I’m going to get away until supply management has left,” said Asa Mckercher, professor at the Mulroney Institute at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, ns

Trump’s numerous statements about dairy systems administered by Canada’s supply are frequently inaccurate. The high tariff rates in the US lactees. UU. They only apply if exports exceed the established quotas, and the United States has never approached them (a dairy lobbying organization of the United States argues that this is due to the “Protectionist measures“Imposed by Canada). Under the quotas, the US dairy products are free of rates under Cusma.

While Canada’s dairy lobby welcomed the passage of C-202, some agricultural Industry leaders He argues that he suffocates his industries in favor of reinforcing dairy and gives the country Little Wiggle Aroom If Trump comes to call for more concessions.

“I think the Carney government is now entering a position where the rubber will really go to the road,” Mckercher said. “If you have yielded on the digital tax, is it a concession that Trump will see how a concession and accept, or Trump will continue to press Canada and say, well, now what happens to supply management?”

Look | Supply Management ‘Outside the table,’ says Leblanc:

Canada ‘non -negotiable’ dawn ‘dawn supply management in us: Leblanc

The main political correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with finance minister, Dominic Leblanc, about Canada’s response to the commercial war initiated by the president of the United States, Donald Trump. In addition, the BC Prime Minister David Eby, on how his province is promoting efforts to buy Canadian, and Domingo Scrum analyzes what everything means for Canadian politics.

‘Existential’ problem for liberals

He says that this is “dangerous territory”, for the Carney government of the minority, which needs the support of other parts to approve its agenda.

“If the current government seems to introduce a bill that threatens offer management, this could create many political headaches.”

The C-202 bill was sponsored by Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, as a nod to the base of the party in Quebec, where the dairy cultivation industry is very concentrated. Conservatives also seek to expand in the province, while maintaining their rural base in Ontario.

“This is where the problem becomes existential for the political fortune of the Liberal Government of Carney,” said Hampson.

“So that will be difficult. And I am not sure that there really is way to square that circle if the Americans decide to go after us.”

With three remaining weeks until the deadline of July 21 for a new trade in Canada-United States, it is possible that the conversations between Trump and Carney arrive at the finish line, says Lori Turnbull, professor of Political Science at the University of Dalhouse.

But with Trump upset by supply management, “is it a matter of will it be enough for him for a while? How long?” She said.

“Now that we have made a concession and Trump sees it as a victory for him, is there a chance at this time in this short period of time? [where Canada can] Move some things through where Trump feels like … a real free trade relationship and a new economic and security pact for Canada and the United States is also of American interest. “



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