National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts are predicting an active season of Atlantic Hurricanes with more storm activity than typical.
“We are really seeing a more normal season,” said Ken Graham, a meteorologist and director of the National Meteorological Service. “We are asking for 13 to 19 storms with name.”
The storms obtain names when their wind speeds reach 39 mph or more. It is expected that six to 10 of the predicted storms will become hurricanes, with wind speeds greater than 74 mph. NOAA waiting for three to five important hurricanes, category 3 and superior.
The forecasts do not predict whether hurricanes will throw dirt or when or how many storms will hit the US coasts. Even so, now it is time to prepare, the forecasts said.
“It’s a good time to get out and get your supplies and kit and assemble it,” said Graham. “We have to be ready. There are no lines for supplies today. There are no lines for gas, without plywood lines, without water lines.”
Graham said the average prognosis is partly driven by the temperatures of the warmer ocean, a trend associated with climate change.
“The warmest ocean temperature is really consistent that we are in a more active season,” Graham said at a press conference.
The forecast also predicted a greater activity of the western African monsoon, a pattern that develops storms from the shore of continental Africa and sends them through the Atlantic and towards the United States.
The hurricane forecast occurs at a time when many offices of the National Meteorological Service have little personal, after the Trump administration dismissed some workers and opened voluntary retirement programs to reduce staff.
In the first months of 2025, almost 600 employees have left the National Meteorological Service, opening personnel holes. Even so, the agency’s leadership said the National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Meteorological Service, had the resources it needed.
“We are totally attended at the Hurricane Center, and we are definitely ready to begin. And we are really making this a priority for this administration,” said Laura Grimm, the interim administrator of NOAA.
The 122 local forecast offices of the Nation have been difficult and are plagued with vacancies. Many of these offices will have the task of forecasting local effects after a hurricane landed, such as flooding and rain.
“I will make sure that our offices, when there is a threat of hurricanes, will have the resources they need to ensure that each warning is activated,” said Graham, adding that he was working on solutions to “make sure that we continue to have the staff we need in the long term.”
The hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. Usually, it begins to reach its maximum point at the end of summer and early fall.
The NOAA forecast is approximately in line with the public forecasts provided by external research groups in universities, government agencies and private companies.
On average, external research groups predicted eight Atlantic hurricanes in 2025, according to a website operated by the Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, which tracks and adds predictions every year.
Last year, NOAA predicted its highest hurricane season. The season delivered 18 storms named and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes hit the coast of the United States. Hurricane Helene touched land on the coast of the Gulf of Florida, then tracked north with heavy rains, causing destructive floods of the interior in North Carolina, among other states. Helene killed more than 150 people.
Hurricane Milton touched land as a category 3 storm in nap Key Florida and produced 46 tornadoes.
Both storms underwent rapid intensification, a phenomenon in which hurricanes suddenly increase when the storm approaches the coast.
Global warming makes this process more likely. The high temperatures of the sea surface, such as those observed in recent years, can feed that rapid intensification. A 2023 study found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean had approximately 29% more likely to suffer rapid intensification between 2001 and 2020, compared to 1971 and 1990.
