The fatal floods in Texas that left Miles fighting for security with little warning have caused a new round of scrutiny in the Trump administration cuts to the National Meteorological Service.
At least 79 people are dead and many others disappear until Sunday night, after the waters of the floods suddenly emerged through Texas Hill Country, an area known as “Alley Flash Flaod Alley.”
A few hours after Friday morning, some Texas officials criticized the NWS, saying that the forecasts underestimated the rain. The representative Jack Kimble, D-Calif., On Saturday he published in X an ironic criticism of the NWS cuts in response to a position of vice president JD Vance. On Sunday, President Donald Trump rejected the idea of investigating whether NWS’s cuts had left key vacancies, and the White House said the statements that NWS cuts had something to do with the tragedy were “disgusting.”
Independent meteorologists and a former NWS official said that the warnings issued in the period prior to floods of this weekend were as timely and precise as they could expect with the meteorological data available in real time. They said that predicting extreme rains and sudden floods beyond several hours, and it is not easy to ensure that urgent warnings reach the most at risk.
“The prognosis was good. The warnings were good. It’s always about making people receive the message,” said Chris Vagasky, a Wisconsin -based meteorologist. “It seems that it is one of the greatest taxpayers, that last mile.”
Meteorologists said they did not believe that offices with little personal were a main factor in the tragic result, although NWS has leadership gaps after a series of staff cuts.
Tom Fahy, the legislative director of the National Organization of Employees of the Meteorological Service, a union that represents government employeessHe said that the San Antonio Climate Prognosis Office did not have two of its main employed positions: a permanent science officer (a role that training and is in charge of implementing new technologies) or a warning coordination meteorologist (which coordinates with the media and is the public face of the office), although there are employees who act in those leadership roles. In general, Fahy said the offices were properly attended to meteorologists to respond to the event.
“The WFO [weather forecasting offices] He had adequate staff and resources when they issued timely forecasts and warnings that led to the storm, ”Fahy said on Saturday, but added that he was concerned about high -level positions and leadership vacuum cleaners.
In a statement, the National Meteorological Service said it was “disconsolate by the tragic loss of lives in Kerr County.” The agency did not address questions about the staff, but provided a detailed timeline of the warnings it sent.
Some Texas officials have suggested that the forecast of the National Meteorological Center did not transmit the threat of the storm, while others said they were grateful for the agency’s appropriate alerts.
“The original forecast we received on Wednesday from the National Meteorological Service predicted three to six inches of rain in the Concho Valley and four to eight inches of rain in the Hill Country,” said Texas Emergency Management Head of Emergency Management, W. Nim Kidd, at a press conference on Friday. “The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts.”
The National Water Center said that Kerville, Texas and its surroundings could be at risk of sudden floods on Thursday, July 3, according to a timeline provided by the National Meteorological Service. Then, NWS Austin/San Antonio issued an flood clock at 1:18 pm on Thursday continuing until Friday morning. The office issued its urgent warehouses of sudden flood at 1:14 am for Kerr County.
Travis County judge, Andy Brown, thanked the National Meteorological Service for his alerts. Eric Carter, the County Emergency Management Coordinator, described that the service was “very proactive in its warnings.”
The agency said he sent a flash flood warning with “considerable” or “catastrophic” labels at 1:14 am CT on Friday, which would trigger wireless emergency alerts on enabled mobile devices.
“Sudden flood warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early hours of July 4, giving preliminary delivery times of more than three hours …” said the statement.
The concern for staff and performance occurs after the Trump administration this spring dismissed employees of the National Meteorological Service and also offered early purchases and retirements. In early June, the National Meteorological Service had lost some 600 employees. Many NWS veteran workers left the agency, together with employees on probation and recently hired or promoted.
Some NWS offices have seen staff reductions of more than 40%, and the agency has rushed to occupy critical roles in some prognosis offices. At least eight offices stopped working 24 hours a day, this spring as a result and some have suspended meteorological balloons.
In May, more than 40% of the nation’s time forecast offices had personnel vacancies rates greater than 20%. The cuts led all the old NWS live directors to write a letter that expresses concerns about personnel levels and future budget cuts.
“Our worst nightmare is that the time forecast offices will have so much staff that there will be an unnecessary loss of lives. We know that it is a nightmare shared by those in the first prognosis line, and by the people who depend on their efforts,” they wrote.
Compared to many prognosis offices throughout the country, Texas offices remain relatively personal.
FAHY said that the San Antonio/Austin climate prognosis office is operating with 11 personnel meteorologists and has dropped to six employees of its typical full staff of 26. He also pointed out that the nearby San Angelo office, which issued warnings for portions of the center of Texas, the four members of the personnel of his regular staff of 23 years. The office is also without senior hydrologist.
“In San Angelo, there is no hydrologist, and that is a problem,” Fahy said. Hydrologists analyze the flow of the current and play a key role in the response to floods.
Dalton Rice, manager of the city of Kerville, said the city will analyze whether its own emergency notifications were robust enough to warn residents.
“We know that questions are being asked about emergency notification, and although it is not time to speculate, local and regional partners are committed to a complete review of established events and systems,” Rice said at a press conference on Sunday. “At the appropriate time, we will take clear measures to strengthen our future preparation. We owe that commitment to the families they suffer and each member of our community.”
The prominent independent meteorologists who have criticized NWS staff and budget cuts in the past have said that federal meteorologists in the field issued timely warnings.
Alan Gerard, the former director of the Rama of Analysis and Understanding of the National Laboratory of Severe Storms by NOAA, wrote in a blog post that the Austin/San Antonio prognosis office did a good job communicating the risks as quickly as possible, despite the non -covered leadership positions.
“Obviously, having both vacant positions for a long time is not optimal, and it could certainly have had negative impacts on some level,” Gerard wrote. “However, just looking at the real warning services that NWS provided during the event, they were solid and provided the warning level and alerts that the public should expect to receive for an event like this.”
Matt Lanza, a Houston -based meteorologist, said there were no initial indications that personnel levels or budget cuts played a role in the tragedy.
Vagasky, Wisconsin’s meteorologist, said that predicting sudden floods and extreme rain is notoriously difficult.
“The quantitative prognosis of precipitation, called QPF, is one of the most difficult things that meteorologists have to do. You must obtain the correct location, the correct amount, the right time,” said Vagasky. “They knew that this was a significant event and were sending it messages.”
Vagasky said that the remains of the tropical storm Barry moved to Texas and fed the tropical humidity with severe electric storms, which stagnated in the center of Texas and hit the region with an extreme precipitation.
He added that the cadence by which the forecasts indicated a growing concern in the adjustment of what the weather models were showing and what it would expect.
The country of Texas Hill is often called “Alley Flash Flaod Alley” because its topography can channel and swell quickly. Knowing precisely where rain will fall is key to hydrological models to understand where the flood impacts would be worse.
“The forecasts of this week were 4-7, 5-9 inches of rain, somewhere there. And some models were showing greater quantities in addition to that. Knowing: Is that greater amount to fall three miles in this way or three miles that way? Does it have a great impact on what the final results are,” said Volasky. “Unfortunately, science is not at that point where you can say: ‘ok, I know that in this specific latitude and length, we will have so much rain'”.
The moment during the night of the heaviest rain and the floods that begin to increase is a nightmare scenario for the forecasters, Vagasky said.
“The severe climatic response in the middle of the night is one of the biggest challenges. It is then that we see the deaths more of the tornado and the most flooded deaths. People are asleep. They cannot see that the tornado or the water increases,” said Vagasky. “Did people have their emergency alerts activated on their phones?”
Vagasky, who has criticized personnel reductions and cuts to weather balloons in the National Meteorological Service, said he did not believe that the best staff had avoided the tragedy.
“Those are important positions that must be occupied,” he said, adding that “it was probably not a significant taxsence to what happened.”
Vagasky said there is a lot of space to improve the quantitative precipitation prognosis that could help forecasts identify threats before. This research is at risk if the administration reduces NOA funds as described, he said.
“The great concern is the last budget application, if it goes through Congress in the way the administration wants, closes all NOAA research laboratories, which are the laboratories that do the work to improve that prognosis.”
