A record number of Americans will travel this weekend, packing their bags and hitting the road to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family, friends and maybe some football.
But travel this year will be different than 12 months ago, according to a range of preliminary data, surveys and industry experts.
The main culprits for the changes? More travelers; deepening economic anxiety; tensions around geopolitics; and a six-week government shutdown that ended just weeks ago.
Record travelers, but tighter belts
AAA projects that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles over the long holiday weekend — 1.6 million more people than last Thanksgiving and a record high.
Six million of those travelers are expected to take domestic flights, another increase from last year. But AAA warns that some air travelers may decide to switch to a train, bus, car or recreational vehicle due to a series of recent flight cancellations.
More than a third of Americans who have travel plans over the next six months said those plans had been affected by the six-week government shutdown, according to survey data from Longwoods International, a travel and tourism research firm.
Meanwhile, some vacation trips have simply “evaporated,” said Amir Eylon, president and CEO of Longwoods. He pointed to survey data showing that nearly 1 in 3 people whose holiday travel plans were affected by the lockdown had canceled them entirely.
Scott Keyes, founder of the travel app Going.com, isn’t surprised by the losses.
“Given that more than a million people were left without pay during the shutdown, and the fact that many people are waiting to make plans in the final weeks before traveling, it is safe to assume that a significant portion of travelers are skipping trips they might otherwise have taken,” he said in an email.
It’s too early to predict how many people will choose to take commercial buses this weekend, said Kai Boysan, CEO of Flix North America, the parent company of FlixBus and the Greyhound bus service.
“Most bus reservations are made between 24 and 72 hours before departure,” he said by email. “But searches are trending up year after year, especially on peak days: Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to Thanksgiving and returning on Sunday.”
Melissa Ulrich, owner of Austin, Texas-based travel company You Pack, We Plan, said the closure had simply compounded the impact of existing economic pressures on some of her clients.
“We had customers choose a different level of travel,” he said. Some luxury travelers were upgrading from five-star accommodations to four-star accommodations, Ulrich said, and other clients were upgrading from four-star accommodations to 3.5-star accommodations.
“It started this summer and continued with the shutdown,” he said.
As the U.S. labor market has slowed, unemployment has risen this year and inflation remains stubbornly high.
Consulting giant Deloitte’s vacation travel survey found the same factors at play: more travelers overall, but expected to spend significantly fewer dollars per person.
Even before the government shut down for six weeks, the Deloitte survey found that vacation travelers planned to spend about 18% less on average this year than in 2024.
“Financial concerns could be clouding the season, as many travelers are expected to reduce the number of trips, trip lengths and their overall travel budgets,” said Eileen Crowley, who leads Deloitte’s transportation, hospitality and services practice in the United States.
Still, the percentage of Americans who said they plan to travel between Thanksgiving and mid-January, 54%, was 5 points higher than in the same survey a year ago.
But there’s a big problem: This overall growth in travelers is being driven primarily by people who say they’ll stay with friends and family, and who don’t plan to pay for hotels, cruises and bed and breakfasts, Deloitte’s research found.
That means more friends and family expected to sleep on couches and spare rooms, and potentially less money going toward tip jars, restaurant bills and theater tickets.
The Canadian question
For the more than 8 million Americans who make their living directly from travel and tourism, a double whammy could be coming: less money coming in from domestic travelers and a significant drop in the number of visitors from abroad.
Data consistently shows that international travelers are choosing not to visit the US and a variety of factors are affecting their decisions.
Among them: increased fears of detention by the US Department of Homeland Security, longer wait times for visas and higher fees, as well as concerns about political rhetoric and reports of violence.
Overall international travel to the United States this year is projected to be just 85% of its 2019 level, according to the U.S. Travel Association, a major industry group.
The main reason for the big decline? A massive drop in tourism from Canada.
In previous years, Canadian visitors accounted for just over a quarter of all foreign travelers to the United States, according to international travel data.
But in October there were 30% fewer Canadian residents returning from the United States across the border by car than during the same month last year, according to newly released Canadian statistics.
Similarly, by air, there were almost a quarter fewer travelers returning to Canada from the United States in the same period.
Missing Canadian visitors aside, the volume of international travelers to the United States this year is expected to remain stable or decline slightly.
But for many people who depend on travel to make a living, next year could be decisive.
The United States will host the 2026 FIFA World Cup, an event that traditionally draws millions of spectators from around the world to the host country for matches.
In an apparent effort to encourage visitors, the Trump administration announced a new fast-track visa system for World Cup ticket holders, allowing them access to priority scheduling for visa interviews. But potential tournament attendees could still face a series of travel bans enforced in several countries.
