Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national alliance faces tough regional elections in Bihar state next month due to youth unemployment and distrust over voter rolls, which could pose risks to his coalition that relies on regional partners.
Bihar, in eastern India, is one of the poorest states in the country and the third most populous, with more than 130 million people. Its chief minister, Nitish Kumar, has sided with Modi and the opposition, but is currently a key partner in Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The state is part of a politically crucial central region and any rift within the NDA in the November assembly vote in Bihar could threaten Modi’s coalition, with elections due within months in the states of Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Modi’s national alliance, which has 293 of 543 seats in Parliament, has a strong voter base in Assam alone.
Women are a key voting bloc in tight poll
The Vote Vibe agency said its opinion poll in Bihar showed the NDA had a marginal lead of 1.6 percentage points over the opposition alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress Party as of October 8.
“This election could swing in either direction,” the agency said in its outlook, noting that the NDA’s slight lead was due to its recent programs such as money transfers to 12.1 million women under a self-employment subsidy that amounted to more than 121 billion rupees ($1.37 billion).
Nivedita Jha, an activist based in Patna, the capital of Bihar state, said women will form a strong voting bloc in the poll because men generally leave Bihar in search of jobs in economic hubs such as Mumbai and New Delhi and not all of them return to vote.
“Women make the decisions because men are not here,” she said. “They talk about the opposition that has promised more money if it comes to power, and I understand that they trust the opposition more.”
Some voters in Bihar are also angry over the revision of the state’s voter list. In one case, Jitni Devi, 85, said she was removed from the list and can no longer vote or access her pension.
“They declared me dead,” he said. Reuters. “The people in my village mock me as a dead woman and the bank officials chase me away when I go there to withdraw my money.”
The state election commission did not respond to questions about Devi’s case. The federal electoral body has previously said that all complaints are thoroughly investigated.
Young voters angry about unemployment
Anxiety among Bihar’s young voters over jobs is another election issue, despite the falling unemployment rate. Government data showed that 9.9 per cent of people aged 15-29 were unemployed in Bihar in fiscal year 2023-24, a significant drop from 30.9 per cent in 2018-19, but concerns remain.
“For me, I have seen my father leave Bihar in search of work, so the issue of employment is the most important thing,” said Babloo Kumar, 25, who plans to vote for the first time in November.
A new political party, Jan Suraaj, founded by Prashant Kishor, Modi’s former chief electoral officer, said it aims to reset the political agenda in Bihar.
“Unemployment, migration, rising debts and loss of farm income are the problems in Bihar,” said party national president Uday Singh. “There is a big drop in Modi’s popularity here.”
The opposition has promised a law that guarantees at least one government position per family, if it so wishes.
However, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) said it remains confident of victory.
“The NDA alliance is in a very strong position,” said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan. “People have great faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision.”
Voting will be held on November 6 and 11 for 243 state assembly seats, and the results will be announced on November 14.
