As calls grow within the federal Liberal Party for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader, one political analyst says there is little his critics can do to force him.
In a Sunday interview with CTV news channel, Lori Turnbull of Dalhousie University and the Institute of Governance said the decision remains Trudeau’s at this point, as the party previously eliminated the option of initiating a leadership change through a majority vote.
“In the Liberal Party there is not the same mechanism as in the Conservative Party,” explained Turnbull.
“They followed the Reform Law and did not use that mechanism. (The Conservatives) overthrew Erin O’Toole a few years ago and then had the leadership process that brought in Pierre Poilievre. But the liberals did not take advantage of that mechanism that the caucus can, with a majority of more than 50 percent. -one vote, expel the leader and then replace him with an interim leader. And because of that, your options to get it out the door are pretty limited.”
According to Turnbull, calls for his resignation within Trudeau’s camp, whether through the media or behind the scenes, appear to be adopting a “death by a thousand cuts” approach ahead of an imminent federal election.
“As they go into election preparation mode, as the party has to move forward to make sure all candidates are nominated, this latest push to see if there is any movement by those who want him gone, we are seeing that happening now. “
Turnbull added that the current lack of an heir apparent for the party leader removes some of the pressure on Trudeau, but that could change once leadership rivals emerge whom caucus members could potentially join.
“Now you can hear more and more in terms of rumors of people who are preparing a leadership bid. People are networking. People are raising some money, that kind of thing. “That might be the kind of thing that puts the most pressure on him because, with nowhere else to go, it’s difficult for the party,” he said.
“And again, in the absence of this formal mechanism, it is difficult to oust a leader when you are not sure who the next leader will be. It is difficult to make that transfer.”
Turnbull says it appears Trudeau is reflecting on his future over the holidays, but he hopes that no matter what the prime minister decides, an election will likely be called sooner rather than later.
“I think your options are basically: do you want to go into the next election with the party as party leader or not? And if it does, it will have to get to elections quickly given the fact that the opposition parties say they are done with this,” he said.
“If he decides he wants to hand the reins to someone else, it will probably be through a prorogation of Parliament, so that the Liberals can have this process without risking losing the government in the House of Commons. And then, once “If that happens, I think you will know that the elections will be held shortly after.”
