Hong Kong – India is increasingly important for the United States as a key Asian security partner and a counterweight for China. But President Donald Trump’s tariffs can be pushing him closer to Beijing.
The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is in China this weekend for the first time in seven years to attend a security forum with other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On Sunday, Modi and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, met in Tianjin, where China is organizing a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of 10 members.
Xi told Modi that the two most populated countries in the world should be “partners instead of rivals” and that the “dragon” and “elephant” should join.
Modi told XI that they were “committed to progress in our relationships based on mutual respect, trust and sensibilities.”
Its meeting occurs days after the Trump administration doubled tariffs on Indian imports at 50% as punishment for buying Russian oil. The Levy accelerator, one of the highest in any US trade partner in the world, has expressed concern that it could lead India closer to China despite years of tensions.
“Until about three months ago, relations between China and India were not bad, they were very bad. They were not talking to each other,” said Kishore Mahbubani, a Diplomat of Singapore and former president of the United Nations Security Council.
“I have to give credit where you must: the decision of President Donald Trump to impose a 50% rate on India is one of the biggest clashes that India has received in recent times,” Mahbubani said Wednesday in an event in Hong Kong organized by the center of Hong Kong University in Contemporary China and the world.
India, together with China, is the main buyer of Russian crude oil, which Trump says he is helping to finance the Moscow War against Ukraine. Nueva Delhi says that such criticisms are “unjustified and unreasonable”, and that the United States previously encouraged it to buy oil to prevent global prices from rising as Western countries suspended their purchases.
While India and China share a common complaint about Trump’s tariffs, which in the case of China have reached up to 145%, analysts say that their relationship still faces important challenges and that Modi’s visit in China is mainly a symbolic sample of resilience.
“Xi wants Modi and India to demonstrate that they are working with him and China to the extent that they are not following Trump’s leadership or the US.
Earlier this month, the Chinese ambassador to New Delhi delivered a rare public defense of India against the increase in the rate, calling the United States a “thug.”
It was an important step of the deep freezing that began in 2020 with a border clash in the Himalayas region of Ladakh of India that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese and fell so low relations that the two countries suspended direct flights.
Only seven months ago, India was entering Trump’s second presidential term in a relatively strong position, with Modi among the first world leaders to visit her “dear friend” in the White House.
But the tensions soon emerged, with Trump complaining that Apple was producing iPhones in India instead of American India also rejected Trump’s claim that he negotiated a stop the fire in his four -day conflict with the neighbor Pakistan.
Nueva Delhi enraged more weeks later when Trump received the powerful head of the Pakistan army at the White House at an unprecedented meeting.
“The Indians saw this as a slap on the face for them,” said Mahbubani. “So now, even while we are talking, a tremendous amount of revaluation in Delhi about where the place of India is in the world.”
At the same time, China and India have moved cautiously to restore their relationship, reaching an agreement to resolve their 2020 border confrontation and announcing the resumption of direct flights.
But not everyone is convinced that China extends a friendly hand, and the two countries still have large differences.
One of the greatest are China’s ties with Pakistan, the archirrival of India and a nuclear energy partner. During his conflict in May, Pakistan said there was He used Chinese manufacturing J-10c aircraft to tear down Indian military airplanes.
“There was a big step in the type of assistance that the Chinese were providing Pakistan, not only in terms of selling equipment and platforms, but in intelligence, surveillance, recognition,” said Gautam Bambawale, former Indian ambassador to Beijing, in an interview. “So we will go for actions about those things.”
Bambawale said it could have “months, if not years” for the relationship to return to where it was before 2020, much less reach new heights.
Although India and China are solid commercial partners, that has not been enough to soften other diplomatic issues.
Earlier this month, after a meeting in New Delhi between China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and his Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar, Beijing launched a reading that suggests that Jaishankar had recognized that Taiwan, an autonomous island democracy, “is part of China.”
When asked if Jaishankar made that statement, an official of the Indian government who was familiar with discussions among diplomats but not authorized to speak with the media, told NBC News that there were no changes in the position of India in Taiwan.
“We emphasized that, like the rest of the world, India has a relationship with Taiwan that focuses on economic, technological and cultural ties,” said the official.
The clarification, which was also reported by Indian news organizations, led Beijing to double, saying that it was a “surprise” and “inconsistent with the facts.”
“It seems that some people in India have tried to undermine China’s sovereignty about Taiwan’s issue and prevent the improvement of relations with China-India,” said the spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao NO.
The two countries also have other border disputes, as well as a manufacturing rivalry that can only worsen as companies try to change China’s production. China, who is concerned about technology transfer, has imposed export curbs of rare earth materials to India and remembered some of its citizens who work in specialized roles.
“The meeting between Modi and XI will not eliminate structural problems between India and China,” Tsang said. “But the big problem for XI out of China is now the pressure of the United States, and making sure that India does not seem to be on the side of the United States, therefore, is significant.”
“On this occasion, the optics does matter,” he added.
