If Trump does what he’s promising, North America will change today


Tariffs now remain as the blade of a executioner about the economy of our nation. And the president of the United States, Donald Trump, says he is dropping the ax on Saturday.

If the details of your plan really coincide with rhetoric, it would alter the economy not only, but the Canada-United States relationship as it evolves in several generations.

The president insists that he advances with a 25 percent tax in Canada and Mexico, including an oil rate, although at a softer pace.

He has decided and is not looking to negotiate, he says.

“We are not looking for a concession,” Trump told reporters at the Oval office on Friday. “We will see what happens.”

Projected fall in GDP, balloon deficit, debt

Once again, we have not seen the small print, but it is consistent with his words, this would unleash the nightmare scenario that stalks on the economy of Canada.

Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page projects a contraction in the 2009 recession neighborhood, somewhere between a 2 to 2.5 percent drop in GDP, along with a national globe and national debt.

But there is an even bigger story that is rewritten. It involves the place of Canada in the world after 90 years of increasing the connection to the United States if Trump advances, would be interrupting much more than a few decades of the free trade of Canada-United States; It would be finishing a time that goes back even more.

Canada and the United States have constantly built the narrowest economic ties since 1935, since they left an endless depression.

These two leaders, Prime Minister Mackenzie King, left, and President Franklin D. Roosevelt spent a year negotiating the elimination of tariffs in hundreds of products during the great depression. Established the employer for commercial opening generations. (National Archives of Canada)

What past generations were built?

On November 18, 1935, The New York Times reported That, after a full year of negotiations, countries would eliminate hundreds of rates and consumers would see radios, cars, clothing, fruits and cheaper vegetables.

Integration continued, despite the occasional Disputes – With an automatic pact in 1965then a free trade agreement in 1987and more commercial agreements in 1994 and 2018 with Mexico.

Canada has just launched its luck with the US. In the emerging global reorganization, with multiple recent Movements that poisoned is relationship With China, but it seemed to secure a place inside the American store.

A new and important commercial barrier would mean that there is no orbit. There is no tent. And the world that Canadians know would be irreccrably scrambled.

The old newspaper holder says 'Terms of the Canada Treaty of Us Roosevelt: See the duplicate trade'
The beginning of an era: a head of the cover of The New York Times on November 18, 1935, when Canada and the United States, in the depth of the great depression, began to reduce tariffs. (New York Times)

The geopolitical order is a longer term question. In the short term, there are payment checks to win, mouths to feed and mortgages and rent to pay.

Of all the pockets of the economy at risk of pain, few face greater dangers than Canada’s export number 2 to the United States: the automotive sector.

The automotive industry warns of a dead point in the production lines

To repeat: we have not seen the small print.

But a 25 percent tariff would mean a fast -dead point, along with the first days of the pandemic and 2022 border blocks of the truckers, said a representative of the industry.

“It would end up closing the industry in North America, within the week,” said Flavio Volpe, head of the Autopartes lobby of Canada.

Look | Flavio Volpe discusses the impact tariffs they would have in the automotive industry:

Expert in the automotive industry warns that tariffs ‘are tanks’ the car market

President Donald Trump warns that he wants to build a ‘tariff wall’ for the United States and says that a 25 percent tariff for Canada will be next Saturday. Flavio Volpe, president of the Association of Automotive Parties manufacturers and member of the Prime Minister’s Council on Canada-United States Relations, warns that “no one in the United States will make cars.”

If you are looking for a silver lining, there is not much to continue.

Choose your eyes hard enough, and maybe you will see subtle signs of a ramp out of what Trump said Friday. He was barely noticeable, but when Trump was asked if he was still willing to negotiate, he used the words, “not now” and “we will see what happens.”

The stock market also sent Trump a subtle message on Friday afternoon. The Dow Jones immersed three rooms of one hundred, a modest but sudden fall.

If there is a railing here, something that could deter Trump, is the real economy. The fear that a self -inflicted wound can damage its public position. Because Congress will not stop it, and the courts probably can’t, According to experts in the Commerce Law.

On the other hand, Trump insists that he is ready for pain. He told reporters on Friday that he expects short -term interruptions while reoring the economy.

What if you are slapping?

Even if Trump goes back after a few days, a temporary tariff could hurt. Companies will have heard the message of Washington strong and clear: invest outside the United States at risk.

This is actually Trump’s long -standing commercial policy about steroids. He has been adding unpredictability to cross -border trade for years.

His allies are Of course in this: If companies worry, they can simply move production to the US. It is Trump’s goal. Unpredictability is a characteristic, not an error.

That is why the new commercial pact of North America has uncertainty embedded in it. Trump’s team insisted once and for a decade renegotiationsand welcomed less legal protections to Investors.

Then, in recent weeks, Canada announced a series of policies to address drug gangs and cross -border migration. Several members of the Trump team He celebrated itWelcome to progress.

But there was Friday. In the oval office, promising to keep something that loves, perhaps, when it comes to public policies, its greatest love: rates.

“It is one of the most beautiful words in the dictionary,” he told reporters, on the eve of an executive action that could reconfigure the economic map of North America.

This Sunday, the Cross Country check asks:

What questions do you have about the tariffs of us and how will they get to your pocket? Complete this form and could appear in the program or that your comment reads in the air.



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