About a month ago, from the stage in an investment forum in Saudi Arabia, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, issued a warning to Iran that would be prophetic.
“We will never allow the United States and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or nuclear attack,” Trump told the crowd, sending a message to leadership in Tehran.
“The moment is now to choose. At this time. We don’t have much time to wait. Things are happening at a very fast pace.”
That ultimatum of May 13 received little attention at that time.
But behind the scene, the president already knew that an attack against Iran could be imminent, and that there could be little that could do to stop him, according to two US officials.
In mid -May, the Pentagon had begun to develop detailed contingency plans to help Israel if it followed its long -term ambition to attack Iran’s nuclear program, officials said. And the United States had already diverted thousands of defensive weapons away from Ukraine, destroyed by war, towards the Middle East in preparation for a possible conflict, according to a western source familiar with the matter and a Ukrainian source.
The Pentagon declined to comment for this story.
This story of the weeks and days prior to Trump’s decision to launch his support behind the Israel bombing campaign is based on interviews with more than a dozen administration officials, Trump’s foreign and confidant diplomats, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
The image that arises is that of a long and secret preparation process and a president who, for weeks, was divided between diplomacy and support for military action, and was finally persuaded in part by an ally whose actions did not control completely.
While Trump has been described for a long time as a peacemaker, sending the envoy of Middle East Steve Witkoff to the region several times to try to seal a diplomatic agreement, he had several reliable political allies that pushed him to support an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
And American intelligence had indicated that a unilateral Israeli strike was possible, even probable, even if Trump wanted to wait, according to two US officials.
While it is not clear if the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s most aggressive allies took him to a “yes” to Israel’s plans, for the days before the strike, he at least was not a “no”, according to two senior US officials and a senior Israeli source.
That position, said people familiar with dynamics, helped Israel to Israel to action.
Seven days after Israel-Iran’s conflict, Trump stays with a dilemma, said Aaron David Miller, a veteran diplomat who has advised six state secretaries on the Policy of the Middle East.
You can try again to seek a diplomatic resolution with Iran, allow Iran and Israel “fighting” or can enter the war with US air attacks in the enrichment plant of deeply buried evidence, a step that would have unknown consequences for the region.
Trump “lets happen (the Israeli attack),” said Miller. “He got into the tiger and is riding it.”
The White House, the Office of the Israeli Prime Minister and the Iran delegation to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comments. Tehran has constantly said that its nuclear program is designed only for peaceful purposes, a conclusion that Washington has rejected.
The next storm
One of the first suggestions Trump could sign in an Israeli bombing campaign occurred in April.
During a closed door on April 17, Saudi Arabia Defense Minister delivered a forceful message to the Iranian President Masoud fishshkian: Take Trump’s offer to negotiate an agreement seriously because he presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel.
Reuters I could not determine if the message was sent to the instances of Washington, or if Iran’s leaders took that message seriously.
In retrospect, they should have done it.
The defense forces of Israel and the head of the United States Central Command, General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, were discussing detailed intelligence on missile accumulation and Iran’s nuclear program and the steps that could be required to defend US troops and Israel in any conflict with Iran, according to an official and senior official of the United States and the senior Israeli official.
Meanwhile, the United States was channeling weapons to Israel that would be useful for an air war with Iran. In a case in early May, a great shipping of defensive missiles originally destined for Ukraine was diverted to Israel, according to the Western source and the Ukrainian source.
Devised shipping caused consternation in kyiv and caused continuous fears that the additional weapons necessary to defend against Moscow will be used to defend US interests in other places, said the Ukrainian source.
In the first months of Trump’s mandate, Israel had already proposed to Washington a series of options to attack Iran’s facilities, according to sources.
While Trump had rejected those ideas, saying that he preferred diplomacy at the moment, several people close to him said he was never dead against the use of military force against Iran.
I had done it before. In 2020, despite a foreign policy during his first term that was otherwise marked by the restriction, Trump ordered a drone strike that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Division of the Iran Revolutionary Guards, responsible for his international operations.
Since then, the Iranian government has tried to kill Trump in revenge, American prosecutors said, an accusation that Tehran denies.
Behind the scene, Trump had been dragged into multiple directions on the subject of Iran since before he assumed the position.
On the one hand, many supporters, including the conservative personality of the media Tucker Carlson, and administration officials saw Trump’s Make America Great Movement as an antidote against decades of foreign wars that cost thousands of US lives without moving significantly in US interests.
On the other hand, several close allies from Trump, from conservative commentator Mark Levin to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, portrayed a nuclear Iran as an existential threat that must be eliminated at any cost.
Trump himself was proud to be a peace corridor.
“My most proud legacy,” he said during his inauguration speech, “it will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.”
‘It’s a tango’
Ultimately, there are no American official, Trump Confidido or Diplomatic Reuters I spoke with an identified epiphany that inclined the balance for the president.
A senior administration official said that after months of sitting in the fence, the lack of diplomatic progress, an impulse of the Israelis and the appeals of the aggressive allies probably discouraged him.
Trump’s attendees and allies have noticed that Israel’s attack was developed just after the expiration of a 60 -day deadline that the Trump administration had established for a diplomatic advance with Iran.
The senior American official said that another dynamic was at stake: as American intelligence constantly demonstrated that Israel could continue with an attack with or without support from the United States, the administration might seem surprised if they do not support it. Worse, it might seem that the United States opposed an ally of a lifetime.
Although Trump had looked to some that deelated Netanyahu while pressing for a peaceful solution to the crisis, in private, Israel understood that Washington would support him, said a separate official.
By the time Trump spoke with Netanyahu on Monday, June 9, one of the many telephone calls in recent days, his position was one of the tacit approval, if not explicit, according to an American official and an Israeli official.
The Wall Street Journal He informed that Trump had said that he would like more time to see the diplomacy that develops. But the American official said he did not explicitly veto Israel’s plans.
For Wednesday, June 11, it was clear to Washington that Israel’s plans were an opportunity.
That day, Reuters He informed that the United States was preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy in the midst of Iran reprisal fears after an imminent attack.
The next day, on June 12, Washington sent a formal diplomatic note to several regional allies, warning them that an attack was imminent.
That night, Israel launched its nightfall, an attack that almost immediately became an air war.
Trump and some key cabinet members saw the live events from the “JFK” part with wooden panels in the White House Situation Room. Other officials saw nearby events.
In the menu, according to an officer: stone crabs of a local restaurant.
The initial attack seemed to be a success, with several nearby advisors of the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei killed and the damaged key nuclear sites. During the weekend, the Israelis considered to kill Khamenei himself, but Trump exhausted, according to two US officials.
Almost immediately, a political civil war broke out in the Trump Republican Party, with several high -profile conservatives, including members of Congress, accusing their administration to enliven the flames of the war.
Seven days later, the United States intelligence community believes that the attacks have delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions for only months, according to a source familiar with the intelligence reports of the United States, confirming a CNN report.
A significant blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the majority of analysts say, they will require bunker bombs in the ForDow fuel enrichment plant, the Crown Jewel of the Iran Nuclear Program. Only the United States has that capacity.
Trump has said that he is considering such a strike, which would represent a great escalation for the United States.
Until Thursday, their intentions were not yet clear.
