Recent public polls in the New Jersey governor’s race have shown Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by varying degrees. Like many campaigns of the last decade, President Donald Trump and voters’ perceptions of his performance have weighed on this race.
But Sherrill’s lead also appears to be tied to how New Jersey voters view another politician: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
Polls conducted in recent weeks have not tested Murphy’s job approval rating, but a Fox News poll conducted Oct. 10-14 found that 47% of voters had a favorable opinion of the two-term governor, while 49% had an unfavorable opinion of him. Sherrill led Ciattarelli in that poll by 5 points, within the poll’s margin of error.
In the handful of public polls that did test Murphy’s job approval during the fall campaign, the three polls that showed Murphy with an approval rating in the mid-40s also saw Sherrill gain larger leads. In two polls that put Murphy’s job approval at 35%, including one conducted for Ciattarelli’s campaign, the gubernatorial results showed a tied or near-tied race — the best results Ciattarelli has enjoyed all campaign.
The shift depending on Murphy’s approval rating underscores how opinions on the current two-term administration could be a key factor in the race.
Ciattarelli has linked Sherrill to Murphy and has presented himself as the candidate who represents the change in the race, blaming the state’s problems on Murphy and the Democrats, who control the state Legislature.
“Politicians like Mikie Sherrill and Phil Murphy just don’t get it,” Ciattarelli says in a recent television ad. “They are making New Jersey unaffordable, especially for the middle class. We need change.”
Meanwhile, Sherrill has also put some distance between herself and Murphy on the issue of rising electricity costs in the state, while presenting herself as a candidate who will bring change to state government.
“Make no mistake, I will also fight Trenton to reduce costs for families,” Sherrill said in a recent debate.
Five recent publicly released polls, all conducted in September, gauged both Murphy’s standing and the gubernatorial race in New Jersey.
A Fox News poll and a poll by the education group Yes Every Kid found Sherrill up 7 points, with support from 48% of respondents, while a Quinnipiac poll from mid-September found Sherrill up 8 points, to 49%. Sherrill’s lead in the Fox News poll was outside the poll’s 3-point margin of error, while his lead in the other two polls was just within those margins of error.
Murphy’s approval rating in those three polls: 47% or 48%.
The outlier so far among independent polls has been one from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill, which showed the race tied, with Sherrill and Ciattarelli at 43%, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.
Beyond the main results, a key difference separating Emerson’s poll from others was Murphy’s approval rating, which that poll measured at 35%, more than 10 points lower than the other polls.
While polls show different pictures of Murphy’s approval rating, Trump’s approval rating has remained in the 40s, with each of the September polls finding Trump’s approval rating at 41%.
Sherrill has tried to capitalize on that in his advertising, linking Trump to Ciattarelli, who has the president’s backing. Democrats are betting that voter opposition to Trump will carry them to the polls in November and boost Sherrill in the race. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has largely praised the president while downplaying Democratic attacks by arguing that Trump doesn’t affect local issues like property taxes.
Meanwhile, in a recent debate, both candidates were asked to grade Murphy’s administration, and Sherrill gave the two-term governor a B.
“There are things like paying pensions and the nine increases in our credit rating that I like,” Sherrill said.
“But overall I think there are ways that Trenton could do much better, being much more responsive to people. I’m going to have a cultural change in Trenton. I’m going to make sure that we have more accountability in government, reducing costs for people,” Sherrill added, also calling for more action to address housing costs and rail infrastructure.
Ciattarelli gave Murphy an F and called Murphy’s tenure “the worst governorship of our lifetime.”
“Take a look at what has happened in New Jersey. We have an affordability crisis because of property taxes, electricity rates, housing and child care. We have a public education crisis because we water down the public school curriculum. We have a public safety crisis because we don’t let our local police do their job. And we have an overdevelopment crisis in our suburban communities because of high density housing. It’s been a failure in all areas. Ciattarelli said.
Whatever Murphy’s approval rating, his standing appears to be significantly better than that of former Republican Gov. Chris Christie after his two terms.
A Fox News poll conducted in October 2017 found that 21% of New Jersey voters viewed Christie favorably, while 77% viewed him unfavorably. The poll did not test Christie’s job approval.
