The Tables of the Government of Holt their first budget today, a document that the liberals once predicted with confidence would present campaign promises fulfilled, combined with a modest fiscal surplus.
On the other hand, with the economic uncertainty of the threat of American tariffs on Canadian exports, the question is how great the budget deficit could be.
The Minister of Finance, René Legacy, warned last month that a deficit seemed inevitable in the next fiscal year 2025-26.
“I would say that it is becoming obvious that it is very likely,” he said at that time.
In a video of social networks last Friday, Minister Susan Holt said that her government “cannot continue to kick the can on the road” and bring a “transformative change” to some government services, including the provision of primary care.
“That means that the services we provide will not be seen as they did in the past,” he said.
It was not clear if that meant an even greater infusion of spending or potentially controversial cuts designed to avoid a deeper deficit.
The central piece of Holt’s campaign commitment to improve primary care was a promise to open 30 collaborative attention clinics by 2028, including 10 in next year.
According to the documents of the liberal platform, that promise would cost only $ 3.8 million in 2025-26, an amount that would not include, for example, what doctors and practicing nurses in those clinics would invoice Medicare.
Holt said in his speech in the state of the province in January that the threat of US tariffs of President Donald Trump was already slowing down the rhythm of hiring and investment in the province.
The liberal prime minister promised balanced budgets in each year of his mandate, but has said that the projected deficit of the current year of $ 398.9 million does not count against that commitment because the budget had been established by the previous progressive conservative government.
However, part of the expense that contributes to this deficit this year is the result of liberal elections, including additional $ 60 million for nursing bonds and $ 32 million for sales tax reimbursements in NB energy invoices.
Holt’s video said the terrible fiscal situation of the province was unpredictable.
“Financial conditions against us are more difficult than anyone could have anticipated,” he said.
“This is not the situation we expected, but it is the one in front of us, and we have difficult decisions to make. But we will not hesitate in our commitment to help the new Brunswickers today.”
The progressive conservatives of the opposition say that there were wide warnings that the rapid growth of the population, fiscal income and federal transfers in the previous four years was unlikely to continue.
“It is starting to decrease,” said Ernie Steeves, PC finance minister, warned last September, just before the electoral campaign began.
The PCs also accused the liberals of an important accounting error in the cost of their electoral platform, saying that they were double $ 450 million in revenues from harmonized sales taxes when they said they could finance their promises.
The liberal campaign team replied that a promise of PC to reduce HST seemed to be based on a large influx of expected tax revenues, a “surplus surprise” that liberals would also cover their commitments.
That has not materialized.
“They are going to break their promises, or they will break the province keeping their promises, and that is for them to decide,” said PC leader Glen Savoie.
“They will have to be the ones who face the new Brunswickers and said: ‘We could not fulfill our promises because we promised ourselves about’ or they will have to tell the new Brunswickers: ‘You will have to pay more to get less because we kept our promises.”
