One of the seemingly few profitable outcomes at the start of this NFL season was for the Detroit Lions to score at least 30 points. They did it in four straight wins to start 4-1 and put themselves in the conversation of Super Bowl contenders.
However, the Lions have failed to surpass that total in each of their last three games, including Sunday’s 27-24 loss to Minnesota.
The NFL’s best offense propelled the Indianapolis Colts to a 7-1 start. Then on Sunday, they turned the ball over six times (more than the total of the previous eight games combined) in a surprising loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And the Green Bay Packers, who had reaffirmed themselves as Super Bowl contenders during a 5-1-1 start? Naturally, they suffered their first home loss of the season on Sunday to a mediocre Carolina Panthers team.
What connects those three results is the notion that midway through the season, there appears to be a dearth of pigskin dominance in a league where teams alternate between looking superb and slipping, varying by week.
Coming into this week, ESPN’s Football Power Index projected the Indianapolis Colts would finish with the league’s highest win total at 12.2. How low is that? The last time 12 wins were enough to lead the league was in 2014.
In another sign of the parity that has produced many good teams but no dominant leaders, 12 teams entered Week 9 with positive expected points added ratings on both offense and defense. As of this time last year, there were nine such teams; the previous season, seven.
One potential factor is the 2024 introduction of the “dynamic start” that was made permanent before this season. The rule change incentivizes the kicking team to kick a playable ball. Balls kicked into the end zone result in the offensive team taking control at its own 35-yard line, a yard that gives offenses a considerable advantage on their next drive. Field goal range is now just a few passes away.
Facing often shorter fields, offenses in 2025 will average 328.9 yards per game, the league’s lowest average since 2008, but are scoring 2.14 points per drive, the second-highest in NFL history.
In Green Bay’s case, Sunday’s loss (to a Panthers team coming off a 31-point loss) wasn’t something that could simply be brushed off as a bad day. Star tight end Tucker Kraft was pulled with what was called a knee injury that Packers coach Matt LaFleur said “doesn’t look good.”
In Detroit, the Lions gained more yards, completed three of four conversions and held the ball for three more minutes, but lost to the Vikings by committing more turnovers and converting fewer red zone opportunities into points.
“It’s probably one of the worst games we’ve played in a long time,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said.
But the most baffling performance by a team previously at or near the top of a conference was Indianapolis. Quarterback Daniel Jones had resurrected his career with the Colts by leading the team to its most points in eight games since 1964. The Colts had turned the ball over just four times in eight games, only for Jones to personally throw three interceptions and lose two fumbles against the Steelers alone.
Their record, up to this point, had largely been built on beating teams with losing records. The last half of the season, then, will be dedicated to learning whether the Colts are the rare, dominant team they appeared for two months, or simply one of several good ones.
