It is possible that you have cervical whistle if you have been following the commercial war this week.
After weeks of threats, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, said on Saturday that he was officially a rate of 25 percent over practically all Canadian goods and a 10 percent rate on Canadian energy.
In retaliation, Canada said it would begin by applying a 25 percent tariff on US goods worth $ 30 billion entering the country, followed by other imports of US $ 125 billion in three weeks.
The reactions in Canada have been fast. People are boycotting products. The “Buy Canadian” groups are proliferating on social networks, some with hundreds of thousands of new followers. Several provinces said they were taking alcohol from the liqueur shelves.
And then, Monday afternoon, after a couple of conversations with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump agreed for a 30 -day pause. But as analysts have pointed out, that does not mean that the commercial war has ended.
The threats of tariffs and counter-tarifa have highlighted some important economic vulnerabilities, said Fen Osler Hampson, professor of international affairs and co-president of the group of experts on relations with Canada-United States at the University of Carleton in Ottawa.
“If you enter a full -fledged tariff war, you will generally make everything more expensive,” said Hampson. “Everyone will receive a blow.”
And while the “buying” measures are excellent in theory, the effects of tariffs and counter-tarifa will increase the demand and prices of the products made by Canada, said Hampson.
“We face the same problem as Americans, which we don’t produce everything we consume.”
Canada is the largest export destination for US goods, Scotiabank explained in a January 31 report on the United Canadian trade. In 2023, Canada exported goods of $ 593 billion by CDN value to the United States and imported US products worth $ 484 billion, said the financial institution.
The tariff threats of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, have not inspired many Canadians to stop buying products from our southern neighbor, have also shed light on how tangled are our two economies and how complex to discover where a product is made.
At the end of November, the Canada Chamber of Commerce estimated that the Trump 25 percent rate would cost the Canadians around $ 1,900 per person annually. Energy, cars, mining, pharmaceutical products, chemical and forest products would be the most affected sectors, Stephen Tapp, the main economist in the camera, wrote in the report.
The Tank-Tank Independent Public Policy Forum estimates that retaliation rates could cause consumer prices to increase by 4.1 percent.
Retail sector, particularly vulnerable groceries
The Canadian energy sector, which faced a 10 percent rate, will be a little less vulnerable simply because the United States needs what we produce, said Hampson. For example, Canada is the country No. 1 source of oil imports.
But the scale of the proposed American tariffs and the Canadian counter-tarifa will cause damage to the retail sectors on both sides of the border, the Canada Retail Council said on Monday in a statement.
Specifically, in terms of counter-tariffs, it is likely that Canadians are more affected by groceries, due to thin margins and few Canadian alternatives for some products, Matt Poirier, vice president of federal government relations in the retail council From Canada, he told CBC. News.
While Canadian counter-caonceles selected meat, poultry, dairy, cheese and eggs, most of those articles on grocery shelves here are already Canadians, Poirier said. But the same cannot be said of other products, such as files and oranges.
“I think the big one at this time is to produce,” he said. “This time of the year, in the middle of winter, we are importing most of our products from the southern United States.”
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, fresh fruits and vegetables were the second most exported food in the United States to Canada in 2023. As Canada fruit and vegetable producers pointed out in a statement on Monday, the fruit sector and Canada vegetables is deeply intertwined with the US market, exporting $ 4.4 billion annually.
Juice, cereal will probably cost more
Tomatoes, cucumbers, citrus fruits, such as oranges and grapefruits, melons, berries and stone fruits such as peaches and cherries, were selected in the enchants proposed by Canada. And since these perishable articles cannot be stored in advance, consumers could expect to see prices come out to those immediately after the rates enter into force, according to the RSM Real Economy blog.
Ottawa’s counter-tariffs also went after the orange juice from Florida, Trump’s Mar-A-Lago Finca in Palm Beach. Canada imported $ 596 million in fruit juice in 2022, mainly from the United States, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
“Canada is one of the most important markets for American citrus (and specifically Florida Citrus),” says Florida’s department of citrus.
There are very few Canadian options, so if tariffs come into play, consumers can probably expect to see price increases in their OJ already expensive.
The grains will also receive a coup of rates and counter-tarifas, said Hampson from the University of Carleton, which affects everything from breakfast cereals to pancake mixture.
Baked products, cereal and pasta were the main exports of consumer -oriented foods from the United States to Canada from 2019 to 2023, with almost $ 2.8 billion US in sales in 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture of the States Joined. The List of the Canadian Government of Contra-Arancelar specifically mentions grain products, including wheat, rye, barley, oats and rice, as well as pasta.
What about alcohol?
Beer, wine and liquor have certainly received much attention to the War of the Rate.
Before Trump and Trudeau agreed to the 30-day pause, Canada’s counter-tariffs also went after alcohol, including wine, beer, cider, whiskey, rum, gin, vodka, brandies and tequila. In addition, several Canadian provinces ordered American manufacturing liquor of the shelves.
According to the United States Census Office, 35 percent of Wine Exports in the country arrived in Canada last year, as well as 11.2 percent of their beer exports and 10.6 percent of their exports of spirits Hard
Key brands such as Don Julio Tequila and Jack Daniel whiskey of producers such as Diageo and Brown-Forman would become more expensive for us and Canadian drinkers if importers increase prices to cover the cost of future rates, Reuters reports. Some analysts estimated that brands such as Diageo’s Crown Royal Canadian Whiskey would increase in the price by up to 10 percent in the United States, threatening to harm sales.
And until Canadian producers increase production, the Canadian alcohol that was sold here would become more expensive since people seek replacements for California and Kentucky Bourbon wines, Hampson said.
“Yes, of course, you buy Canadian. But until you really can increase production to meet demand … they will increase the price.”
‘We are not doing enough ourselves’
Canada’s proposed tariffs also specifically mention cosmetics, including perfumes and makeup; Dresser articles, which include shampoo, toothpaste, deodorant and soap; And several clothing, which include coats, jackets, suits, shirts, skirts, pants, shorts, dresses, underwear, support, pajamas, baby clothes, sportswear, socks, scarves, gloves and belts.
The approximate annual dollar value of imported cosmetics and body care items is $ 3.5 billion, reports the Canadian press. And the United States is the largest supplier of beauty products in Canada, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
The United States is the second largest textile supplier and imports of Canada’s clothing, after China, according to World Bank data.
Any rate or counter-tarifa will affect these elements, said Hampson. If the energy price increases, it costs more to manage factories and more send the items, key production factors that become more expensive.
And again, if more people are looking for Canadian alternatives, the greatest demand increases the prices of goods produced in Canadian, unless suppliers can quickly increase their production, he said.
“People tend to forget that. There is a blow effect. Changing demand to Canadian producers: there is a reason why we buy Americans or buy Chinese. It is because we are not doing enough ourselves.”
From booing the National Hymn of the United States to omit American items in the grocery store, a commercial war on a slow heat makes some Canadians feel more patriotic and less educated with their southern neighbors.
