Food prices could increase in 2026, with meat leading the way, say Dalhousie researchers

Food prices in Canada could rise by four to six per cent next year, driven largely by rising prices for meat products, according to a forecast from researchers at Dalhousie University.

Beef in particular is expected to become more expensive, potentially increasing by seven per cent, as herd sizes shrink (those markets are susceptible to tariffs) and more ranchers leave the industry, said the research team behind the Canada Food Price Report.

The beef supply shortage is expected to last until 2027, although the country has increased its import volume to meet those challenges, according to the forecast.

“We’re expecting another tough year because of beef prices, and as people are shifting toward chicken, chicken prices are also rising,” said Sylvain Charlebois, director of the university’s Agri-Food Analysis Laboratory and lead author of the report.

“So, unfortunately, the entire category will be more expensive.”

Meanwhile, food products typically found in the middle section of a grocery store could become more expensive after years of stagnant prices, he said. That includes pantry staples like canned goods.

“Normally, the center of the store is a place where people go looking for port… f“From inflation,” he said. “That will not be the case in 2026.”

Overall, several factors could contribute to food inflation over the next 12 months, according to the Food Price Report, including the ongoing trade dispute with the United States, changes in the food manufacturing landscape and other economic factors such as labor conditions.

Food banks see more clients

According to Food Banks of Canada, about a quarter of Canadians live in food-insecure households, meaning they do not have adequate access to food for economic reasons.

Neil Hetherington, CEO of the Daily Bread Food Bank in Toronto, said his organization now serves 330,000 clients a month, a figure that was around 60,000 before the pandemic.

“We’re not adding more food. What we’re seeing is more customers,” said Hetherington, who works with about 14,000 volunteers across the city.

“The amount of customers here in Toronto could fill the Rogers Center eight times a month. That’s how many people we’re feeding.”

With food prices generally trending upward from April 2024, many consumers say they are already feeling the pressure. Those who spoke to CBC News were dismayed by the prospect of further price increases at grocery stores.

Toronto resident Sabra Al-Harthi said she is considering buying meat less frequently. “I think I could cut the meat a little bit; make it a weekend thing.”

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Meanwhile, Giacomo LoGiacco said he’s wasting less on food. “I work full time in a factory and I’m barely getting by. I live paycheck to paycheck,” he said.

“Sometimes I just buy something on sale, but I only get milk, eggs, bread, the essentials.”