Those gasps, strutters and screams that you are listening are the sounds of the old die and the new born just in front of our eyes, thanks to the ungrate of his orange eminence Donald Trump, the purchasing emperor of subcanadian America.
Work pains are intense and contractions are increasing frequently, but they are sure that this particular delivery was very late and that Trump is simply one of those figures that history tends to vomit when an effectiveness approaches its end; Figures that will accelerate the process and shape the contours of the New World, know it or not.
In effectively carrying a red, white and blue deck to the European order after World War II that the United States had created itself already its continental allies, Trump has moved forces that could lead to some very interesting results in the months, years and decades to come. And although predicting the future is a complicated (and potentially shameful) business in the best case, there are some first and second order effects that have discussion.
On the one hand, it seems that the old Gaullist dream of a strategically autonomous Europe free of American domain with France in the driver’s seat has approached a more step to reality. Emmanuel Macron, feeling this, is trying to step forward to play that role. The insistence of France (even within the Western Alliance) in developing its own nuclear deterrence and maintaining its own wide range of global intelligence with very little dependence on the intelligence compilation of the United States, has proven to be myopic.
Türkiye is also seeing an opportunity, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, always the master of the moment, offering Turkey as an indispensable partner in any future security dispensation directed by Europe. It makes sense, since Europe certainly needs the growing military and geopolitical influence of Ankara and now he may not treat his membership requests with the arrogance of the past. Or not. Because the imperial delusions of Europe and colonial prejudices persist, at least while they still drink the drunk beer of solidarity and nationalism that Trump has inadvertently forced them to imbipir.
Trump is among those thrown by history when an era is finishing.
But the hangover will come: as Europe changes from a state of well -being to a state of war, citizens will feel the pinch. This is a Europe in which many countries (especially Germany) are already feeling the shock of the Russian gas limit, which leads to higher energy prices for which there was a political price to pay. That price will become more steep; Since money for mass rearmament will certainly come from the social services already stretched, in the short and medium term, this probably translates into an increasingly angry citizenship that, even if it agrees with the principle of a militarily powerful Europe that faces Russia or that it may be, it can be serious to pay the bill to perpetuity.
This means a potential political gain for the broader European opposition that occurs, in general, to be on the right or, to put it less politely, neo-Nazis, crypto-nazis and Nazis without complexes without complexes, with a pinch of less popular Left groups.
This leads to an interesting scenario in which, at some point in the future, these extremist parties are in power in European countries that now have flourishing military and perhaps they are also with nuclear weapons! And although we must all press for European development (I can smell some lucrative consulting concerts there), we must also know that another effect of Trump’s actions will be a larger global impulse towards nuclear weapons. The Prime Minister of Poland has already indicated his desire to obtain a nuclear deterrent. It makes sense, since it is evident that treaties and guarantees and ‘sovereign borders’ make no sense to the logic of power. The only territory you have the right in this new world is what you can physically cling.
Speaking of weapons, Trump’s actions are not good news for the ‘defense’ industry of the United States. “Why would someone buy us weapons when you can turn off if the president does not like the cut of his clothes?” It is a common chorus these days, and it is nice to see Europeans finally realize that the ‘assistance’ of us does not come with only attached ropes, but steel cables.
Therefore, it is ironic that Ukraine, which should have served as a giant advertising campaign for American weapons systems, is, in fact, a giant warning signal to all countries to never trust American arms or US objectives.
A theory is that Trump is trying to take off Russia from his Chinese alliance, and although everything is possible, Russia seems unlikely, totally aware of the mercurial nature of US policies, do the hook. As for China, one would do well to remember that while Trump could have written the art of the agreement, it was China who wrote the art of war.
The writer is a journalist.
X: *@zarrackhuhro *
Posted in Dawn, March 10, 2025
