Six years after Balakot air attack on February 26, 2019, which saw India launch precision attacks in the terrorist camps of Jaish-E-Mohammed (JEM) in Pakistan, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has Made a movement that is raising the eyebrows in southern Asia.
In a controversial decision, its administration approved a package of $ 397 million to support the F-16 Combat Aircraft Fleet of Pakistan, a development that revives concerns in New Delhi about the improper use of potential against India. Even when Washington promises strict supervision, skeptics remember how Pakistan displayed these same F-16 against India after Balakot, in violation of the final use agreements of the United States.
But that is not the only turn. In what seems like a carefully calculated equilibrium act, Triumph He has extended an unprecedented olive branch to India: an offer to acquire the advanced stealth jet F-35 Lightning II. The movement indicates a dramatic recalibration of the US military strategy in southern Asia, potentially altering the dynamics of power of the region.
The help of foreign aid and the exception of Pakistan
Upon returning to White HouseTrump did not waste time to impose a 90 -day freezing in all foreign aid, committing to put “America first” and carry out an exhaustive review of the United States assistance programs. However, in a matter of weeks, the classified documents obtained by Reuters revealed that their administration had silently approved 243 exceptions to this freezing, one of them being the F-16 package of $ 397 million for Pakistan.
This movement directly contradicts Trump’s previous position. In 2018, he had reduced military aid to Pakistan, accusing her of housing terrorists and declaring famous in X (previously Twitter): “The United States has given Pakistan Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in help in the last 15 years, And they and them, and they, and they, and they have given us nothing more than lies and deception. “
Now, however, the Trump Administration justifies this package under the banner of counter -attack operations (CT) and counterinsurgency (COIN). Irony is difficult to lose: the same F-16 that are served under this program were used against India in the skirmish of 2019, violating the terms of final use of the United States.
Balakot’s air attack and Pakistan F-16 controversy
Indo-Pakistan air conflict on February 27, 2019 is still a painful point. After India’s air attack in Jemot’s camps in Balakot, Pakistan retaliates deploying F-16 in a dog fight with the Indian Air Force (IAF).
The IAF claimed to have demolished an F-16 Pakistani, a position that Islamabad denied.
Remains analysis suggested the debris AMRAAM (advanced air-air missiles with average air range), an exclusive weapon of F-16, confirming its participation.
In response, the United States Department of State He issued a quiet diplomatic reprimand, but no punitive measures were taken.
The filtered diplomatic cables revealed that in August 2019, the State Undersecretary, Andrea Thompson, wrote to the air chief of Pakistan, warning that changing the F-16 to the unauthorized bases was “worrying and inconsistent” with US agreements. Despite this, Pakistan continued to house these aircraft outside the designated areas, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of Washington’s monitoring mechanisms.
The outrage of India and Trump’s F-35 proposal
The government has not yet reacted officially, but diplomatic corridors in New Delhi are full. Critics argue that Washington’s strict supervision guarantees on Pakistan Hollow’s F-16 ring, given past failures.
To mitigate the Indian concerns, Trump has extended an offer that changes the game, keeping India’s access to the stealthy fighter F-35 Lightning II of fifth generation. The proposal, if accepted, would represent a historical change in defense relations between the United States and India, since Washington has prohibited India from acquiring the F-35 due to the purchase of the S-400 antimile defense system of Russia, which, which triggered US Caatsa (counteracting the United States. Adversaries through the Sanctions Law) sanctions.
The F-35 dilemma: strategic change or a poisoned chalice?
While an acquisition F-35 would significantly improve the air combat capabilities of India, it comes with critical challenges:
1. High costs
- Each F-35a costs around $ 100 million, with operating expenses that far exceed the existing combat fleet of India.
- It is projected that life maintenance costs will exceed $ 1.5 billion.
2. Technological restrictions
- Unlike the SU-57E of Russia, which comes with complete technology transfer rights, it is unlikely that the United States gives India any autonomy on F-35 modifications.
- The final use clauses of the United States could restrict India’s ability to display the plane in certain scenarios.
3. Indigenous programs at stake
- The Advanced Middle Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project is in development and is expected to be deployed in the mid -2030s.
- Accepting the F-35 could move away the approach to the combat programs of India’s own.
How the United States plans to monitor Pakistan F-16
The Trump administration insists that the $ 397 million package will not improve Pakistan’s combat capabilities, but will simply provide maintenance and maintenance support. Key monitoring mechanisms include:
- Technical Security Team (TST):
United States Air Force Personal parked in Pakistan will carry out real time monitoring of F-16 activities. - Base restrictions: Pakistan must house its F-16 fleet separately from the JF-17 designed by China.
- OPERATIVE APPROVALS: Any deployment outside Pakistan or joint exercises requires the consent of us.
- Missile control: Advanced AMRAAM missiles will be stored in high security designated vaults.
- Parking limits: The F-16 can only be based on the Shahbaz Air Base (Jacobabad) and the Mushaf Air Base (Sargodha).
Despite these measures, security analysts remain highly skeptical. “Pakistan has found ways to avoid the restrictions of the United States before. Why would it be this time different? A senior Indian intelligence official commented.
Balance Law: India, Pakistan and China in Trump’s strategy in Asia in Southern Trump
When financing Pakistan’s F-16 fleet while simultaneously offering India the F-35, Trump is playing a high-risk game in South Asia. While the F-35 offer is attractive, accepting it could mean:
- A change of Russia, the main defense provider of India.
- The strictest influence of the United States on the military elections of India.
A new act of balance against China
China has constantly expand its stealth combat fleet with the J-20 and the J-35, consolidating its air superiority ambitions. However, Beijing has not only been updating his own arsenal, he has also been Armando Pakistan, supplying advanced planes of advanced combat during the last decade.
- In the last five to ten years, China has transferred multiple variants of JF-17 Thunder, a fighter developed jointly with Pakistan, significantly reinforcing Islamabad air capabilities.
- More recently, the reports indicate that Beijing is preparing to supply J-10C combat aircraft, with AESA radar and long-range air-air missiles PL-15, further changing balance in the region.
New Delhi now faces a crucial decision: embrace the F-35 and deepen US military ties, or remain independent and promote the development of indigenous combat.
Trump’s calculated bet
Trump’s transactional foreign policy remains as unpredictable as ever. By launching both Pakistan and India into the mixture, it is remodeling regional military balance while ensuring that the United States remains a key player in the geopolitics of southern Asia.
As the dust sits, the big question remains: how much can you trust the New Delhi Donald ‘Maverick’ Trump?