The tariffs were lit, then they were out. At least temporarily, and only some of them, but not for China, who were beaten with more pronounced tasks and quickly responded. Wall Street staggered, then recovered with its greatest weekly gain in more than a year.
Last week he has seen a series of changes in the US policy. UU. Economists, investors and common consumers care more and more will increase inflation or even trigger a recession.
“The economy faces considerable turbulence,” JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, said on Friday when the bank reported strong profits while warning about the traps ahead. Both JPMorgan, who sees 50-50 probabilities of a recession this year, and Morgan Stanley saw the income of the commercial activity of shares jump as investors ran to adjust their holdings in the face of the growing uncertainty.
The main indexes of US shares. The rebound of the eleventh hour occurred after the press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt, said that President Donald Trump is “optimistic” for a commercial agreement with China.
The industrial average Dow Jones closed 4.9% in the week, while the Nasdaq compound with technological weight finished 7.3%. The S&P 500 had its best week since November 2023, ending with 5.7%. That wide base index had still dropped 5.5% since April 1, the day before Trump revealed a slate of fresh tariffs.
While much of these new import taxes have been reduced for a few months, market observers and finance executives say there are large winds against economic winds.
“The timely resolution that benefits the United States would be good for companies, consumers and markets,” Wells Fargo told Investors Friday on global commercial tensions. Meanwhile, “we expect a continuous volatility and uncertainty and we are prepared for a slower economic environment in 2025,” the bank said.
Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, Blackrock, told CNBC on Friday that he believes that the US economy is “very close, if not, a recession now.” (An official determination on that front can only be made by a panel of experts in the National Office of Economic Research, usually months after the fact).
The feeling of the consumer, meanwhile, fell 11% since last month, according to a reading on Friday of the University of Michigan, the fourth month of consecutive decrease in measure.
“Consumers report multiple warning signals that increase the risk of recession: the expectations of commercial conditions, personal finances, income, inflation and labor markets continued to deteriorate this month,” the researchers wrote.
The survey was conducted before Trump changed his mind on the rates that he had presented only one week before, covering almost 90 countries. He said he made the decision because more than 75 of them did not retaliate and communicated to negotiate.
However, the reversal of temporal policy does not apply to China. After Trump announced that he was walking with tariffs in the country at 145%, Beijing retaliates Friday with 125% tariffs on US assets.
Investors say they are not sure how the global commercial image will be shaken. Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday that Trump’s 90 -day respite “simply extends political uncertainty” and leaves effective rates at the maximum of a century.
“While any tariff delay is beneficial for the margin, it is not the same as their elimination,” they wrote. “History suggests that high and prolonged uncertainty that weighs business confidence can have harmful effects on business spending and hiring.”
Inflation decreased more than expected in March, immersing at an annual rate of 2.4% in government figures published on Thursday, and wholesale prices also unexpectedly cooled last month. But analysts quickly disconnected encouraging data.
“That was good, but do not get used to it,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s main financial analyst, in a statement on Thursday, citing generalized signs of concern throughout the consumer’s economy.
Experts already warn that common purchases, from clothes and autopartments to basic products such as coffee, nuts and seafood, remain more expensive in the coming months of rates. Price increases are also in the store for articles widely produced in China, including toys, video game and electronic consoles.
Barclays analysts said Thursday that import and import data suggest that many consumers “have these rates in the first instance when making heavy purchases in February and March”, seeking to hook Chinese manufacturing devices and other items produced abroad before prices increase. Pedestrian traffic in Warehouse Clubs increased almost 10% in the last week of March, days before the launch of Trump’s April 2 rate, according to Plazer.AI follow -up data, which the company said it could indicate a race to stock up.
Barclays researchers said they expect price pressures to be moderated during the year “as companies trade less with China and the source of the rest of the world, where we hope that the average rate remains about 10%.” But the bank still provides inflation of inflation to 4.1% in general by the end of this year.
“The Armageddon of the Economic Rate unleashed by Trump last week has been the dark black cloud on the actions since this fiasco began,” Wedbush Securities analysts wrote in a note to customers on Friday. The impact has felt mainly on Wall Street so far, they said, but “that is about to change.”
