NEW DELHI: Can Arvind Kejriwal once again sweep the Delhi elections and achieve a hat-trick of victories or will a determined BJP manage to stop the AAP Is Congress playing a “spoiler” role for the ruling party this time?
The AAP and the Congress had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi together, but have since gone their separate ways, making the February 5 assembly elections a three-way contest. The friends-turned-rivals have openly engaged in nasty feuds, much to the delight of the BJP. As Delhi Congress leaders have unleashed an all-out attack on Kejriwal, the AAP chief has accused the grand party of “secret coordination” with the BJP.
Kejriwal has claimed that the Delhi assembly elections are a contest between the BJP and the AAP, downplaying any possible challenge from the Congress. His assessment may not be completely wrong, given the Congress’ performance in the last two assembly elections, in which it did not even open its account and saw its vote share drop to less than 5%.
But the Congress, still smarting from the shock defeats it suffered in Haryana and Maharashtra last year, is trying its best to make its presence felt in the Delhi elections. The party has already announced the names of 50 candidates and fielded Sandeep Dikshit, son of three-time minister Sheila Dikshit, against Arvind Kejriwal. Reacting to the Congress candidate list, the AAP claimed that “it appears as if it has been finalized in the BJP office”. Congress leaders in Delhi have intensified their attacks on the AAP government and Kejriwal, attacking him over corruption and governance issues. The grand party has promised welfare schemes (Pyari Didi Yojna and Jeevan Raksha Yojna) in line with the recent trends of wooing the people of Delhi. The national leadership of Congress, which until now had not acted, also plans to take the step. Reports say that Rahul Gandhi will hold his first rally in Delhi next week.
So, should Kejriwal completely rule out the Congress challenge?
Well, a look at the data of the last three elections shows that the rise of the AAP in Delhi has been congruent with the decline of the Congress. The AAP emerged on the Delhi political scene in 2013, winning 28 seats and a vote share of 29.49%. Congress’s tally in 2013 was reduced to 8 seats from the 43 it won in 2008. Its vote share also fell from 40.31% in 2008 to 24.55% in 2013. The BJP, on the other hand, saw a drop marginal in vote share of around 3% but won 8 seats, going from 23 to 31 seats in 2013.
In 2015, the Congress suffered a 15% drop in its vote share, while the AAP saw its support base increase by around 15%. The BJP’s vote share did not change much, registering a drop of just 1%. Clearly, this was an indication that Congress supporters were largely moving towards the AAP.
In 2020, Congress’s vote share declined further, almost by half to 4.26%. However, this time AAP’s support base remained almost the same but BJP’s vote share increased by more than 6%. This signaled the strengthening of the BJP at the expense of the Congress.
In terms of seats won too, the AAP was way ahead of both the BJP and the Congress, winning 67 and 62 seats out of 70 in the last two elections. This huge gap perhaps explains the AAP’s confidence ahead of the February 5 election battle.
But Kejriwal’s party, which faces the prospect of losing power after 10 years in power, should fear a better Congress performance in the elections. If the Congress manages to improve its vote share, it could end up cutting into the AAP vote bank, which includes slum dwellers, Purvanchalis, Muslims and also residents of unauthorized colonies. Any increase in Congress’ vote share may not translate into a dramatic increase in the party’s seat share in the assembly, but it would definitely make the contest in some seats more difficult for the other two main contenders. Since the AAP has 62 assembly seats, it could end up suffering more than the BJP, which currently has only 8 members. The saffron party could benefit from the three-way division of votes.
The BJP, after the 2024 Lok Sabha setback, has made an impressive electoral comeback, creating history in the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is leading the BJP campaign, has already held two rallies that have unleashed a fierce attack on the AAP government. The saffron camp is confident of continuing its winning streak.
Kejriwal, who has campaigned very successfully in the last two assembly elections, has also tried his best to woo all sections of Delhi in his bid to score a hat-trick in Delhi. He hopes that the Congress remains on the sidelines like in the last two elections and does not end up being a spoiler for the AAP.