The Conservative and NDP caucuses are grappling with what to do with the next federal budget and whether they want to be part of an effort to trigger an election by rejecting it, several sources told CBC News.
Senior Conservative sources say party leaders don’t want an election right now, but they are also opposed to voting for the new Liberal government’s first budget given the potential reputational risk of backing Prime Minister Mark Carney and an agenda they simply don’t support.
A Conservative source says speculation that the Liberals could lose the budget vote is “not artificial” since, at this time, there are not enough votes for it to pass the House after it is tabled Tuesday.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made a series of demands on the Liberals in exchange for votes on the budget, including eliminating the industrial carbon tax and keeping the deficit below $42 billion. But there are no realistic expectations that they will be met, given that the government has already indicated that they are not viable.
The Bloc Québécois has also done some expensive lawsuitsincluding increased old-age security payments, more generous health transfers to the provinces and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers – policies that are unlikely to be fully implemented as the government intends to rein in spending.
But the liberals approached the bloc and on Thursday agreed to include at least one of their demands: A crackdown on a tax avoidance scheme that the transportation industry has long opposed..
According to sources, the Conservatives have held talks with the NDP and the Bloc about how to approach the vote. CBC News is not naming the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly about internal discussions.
Sources say Conservative leaders do not want an election at the moment, but are opposed to voting on the next budget. Sources say the most likely path would be for some of the NDP’s seven MPs to abstain from voting, allowing the budget to pass.
A senior NDP source and two Conservative sources say the path believed most likely is for some of the seven NDP MPs to abstain from voting, allowing the budget to pass.
At Wednesday’s Conservative caucus meeting, MPs were told their party’s plan is to avoid criticizing the NDP for the foreseeable future, sources told CBC News.
The Liberal minority government needs three additional votes, or two if the president breaks the tie.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May told CBC News on Thursday that she would not support a budget that includes fossil fuel subsidies, but is otherwise waiting to see it before deciding how she will vote.
If the Liberals cannot muster enough support, the government could fall and Canadians could be headed for an election before Christmas.
Conservative sources familiar with the parties’ involvement in the budget said NDP MPs are not aligned and the caucus operates without much structure.
A Conservative source says the small NDP group may have conflicting priorities, which could make it easier to convince individual MPs to vote for the budget.
That scenario could generate the votes necessary for the document to be approved by the House of Commons without the NDP betting on the liberal agenda.
Meanwhile, Government House leader Steven MacKinnon is publicly urging Conservatives to vote in favor of the budget to avoid an election so soon after the last one.
“Walk down the aisle and tell the grumpy opposition leader to vote for the budget. Don’t ruin Christmas. Build Canada strong,” he told a Conservative MP during question period Thursday.
The NDP is cash-strapped and leaderless after the party’s poor showing in the last election. The NDP had its worst result in a generation after propping up the last Liberal minority government.
The party, which will elect a permanent leader in March, is not in the best position to run another costly national campaign so soon.
But the parliamentary group has not yet decided what to do, an NDP source said.
Two Conservative sources told CBC News that MPs were told at Wednesday’s party committee meeting that members can take pre-approved trips when votes on the budget can take place, but must be available to vote electronically.
On Tuesday, Poilievre was asked if all of his MPs are expected to vote in favor of the budget, or if there would be room for some to abstain. He did not answer the question, but repeated that the Conservatives want to see an “affordable” budget.
Asked by a journalist if he wants to overthrow the government in the upcoming federal budget vote, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said he wants an “affordable budget” and less public spending.
The Conservatives’ plan to avoid criticizing the NDP is a change from their strategy in the last Parliament before the spring federal election.
Poilievre was scathing in his criticism of former NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and his decision to back former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau through the confidence and supply agreement.
The Conservatives also ran attack ads against the NDP in the months leading up to the last federal vote, choices that likely reduced support for the party to the advantage of the Liberals in some constituencies.
The decision to go easy on the NDP was not communicated during the budget caucus discussion, but indicates where the party is strategically at the moment, the source said.
While he did not make specific demands, interim NDP Leader Don Davies said his party wants specific investments to “support working families burdened by high prices,” “good jobs,” affordable housing and investments to “strengthen public health care.”
With the Liberals saying they don’t yet have the votes to pass their Nov. 4 budget, NDP interim leader Don Davies says the party will wait to see the document before deciding whether to support it, but that the Liberals haven’t “invited other parties to do the budget…so they risk not winning our support.”
In an interview with CBC Power and politics On Tuesday, Davies said “now is the time to invest” and that his party will not support a budget that includes deep cuts – cuts that could happen given Carney’s promise to balance the government’s operating budget within three years.
Unlike other parties who have essentially ruled out supporting the budget, Davies said he wants to see what is actually in the document before making a firm commitment.
“We cannot accept an austerity approach,” Davies told presenter David Cochrane. “Let’s wait and see what the budget says.”
