Millions of Canadians are expected to throw their tickets today in a fundamental choice that will decide who will lead the country through a commercial battle with the United States.
The 36 -day campaign has been remarkable for the main contestants: liberal leader Mark Carney and conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Only a few months ago, the surveys suggested that Pailievre was almost guaranteed to take the majority government he had been waiting for a long time, after the Canadians agreed to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Then came the resignation of Trudeau in early January, the commercial war of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the persistent spikes on making Canada the State 51, turning the political script.
Why would my vote matter? Majority government? Minority? And what is the ‘first step’? We are asking experts to describe what they need to know so that they can maximize their vote power in this federal election.
With Trump announcing, pauses and then resusciting devastating tariffs on Canadian goods, the campaign became greatly a race about who is better to lead Canada through global uncertainty.
While the general margin between the two main games narrowed in the final stretch, the surveys suggest that the race is to lose the liberal party.
According to the CBC survey tracker, the liberals maintain an advantage in Ontario and Quebec, rich in seats, as well as in BC and Atlantic Canada, and are favored to win most seats.
But it is far from being a treatment made and, as the leaders and their teams have been repeated throughout the campaign: the only survey that matters is election day.
Carney focuses on Trump
Carney tried to define himself as a stable and mature leader who is better to deal with the unpredictable president and draw a new economic and security relationship.
While entering the country, the newly coined leader pointed out his time as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 world financial crisis and the head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years as evidence that Canadians should trust him to direct the country’s economy through turbulent times.
In one of his most repeated campaign speech lines, Carney argued that “Trump is trying to break us so that the United States can own us.”
“And well, that will never happen,” he frequently told the crowds that they gathered to listen to the political rookie speak.
Carney has had a 2025 whirlwind until now. He easily won the liberal leadership on March 9 and swore as a prime minister only nine days before provoking an election.
It was expected that Carney’s greatest weak TOUT LE MONDE IN PARLE relatively unscathed.
His campaign hit some inconveniences. He was accused last week of not telling the whole truth about his conversation with Trump after it was revealed that the president raised Canada becoming state 51 into the call. Carney had said immediately after the call that Trump respected the sovereignty of Canada.
It is not clear if voters will see it that way, or if it will affect their choice.
The last day of the campaign is usually full of emotion while the parties try to generate final impulse and transmit their message. However, Sunday was tested by the tragedy, after an onslaught of cars at a Filipina Street Festival in Vancouver that left 11 dead and more than 20 injured.
The dark end of the campaign saw most leaders cancel events or move around their schedules to offer condolences to families.
While Carney’s final thrust was attenuated, he hit disputed areas, including Saskatoon and Edmonton, a sign that his campaign is confident in Monday’s vote.
Pailievre pressed for change
Pailievre argued that the choice is reduced to a word: change.
In the last five weeks, the conservative argued that Carney is an extension of the last 10 years of liberal government, routinely pointing to Carney’s position as Trudeau’s economic advisor as evidence.
“After the lost liberal decade of growing crime, chaos, drugs and disorder, we cannot risk a fourth liberal term. We have to reverse the policies that led us to this disaster,” he said on Sunday in a full demonstration in Oakville, Ontario.
Pailievre spent part of the last week gathering its base with stops in relatively safe regions in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Then he turned to the Metropolitan Area of Toronto, where winning seats is key to a conservative victory. His last stop on Sunday was in his leadership of Carleton de Ottawa, to which the liberals have been pointing.
Pailievre has represented driving since 2004 and took the reins of the Conservative Party in 2022. Throughout the campaign, he has resorted to his own story, born of a teenage mother and adopted by teachers, as an example of what is possible in this country while discussing the “promise” of Canada has broken.
Known for his combative policy style, Pailievre has tried to offer a quieter image, more smiling, lately. He has managed to attract levels of support not seen since the victory of the majority of Stephen Harper in 2011, but has observed the advantage of more than 20 points of his party in the surveys that NDP, the block and the green voters resort to the Liberals of Carney.
Pailievre has faced criticism that it was too slow to pivot from the questions of the polls in which I wanted to campaign, carbon tax, affordability and impopularity of Trudeau, to Trump’s commercial war and relive the Canadian patriotism.
He defended his approach, arguing that Canadians share their concerns about the housing crisis and illegal drugs.
“I will not stop talking about these problems that are prior to Donald Trump and that will last from Donald Trump if we do not solve them,” the leader argued.
Singh says he is fighting for Canadians
With the framed campaign so strong around Trump, the other two main parts have sometimes been found outside the conversation.
With the voters kicking the liberal tires, the NDP and the Québécois block could suffer significant losses of the seats on Monday night, according to the survey tracker.
Singh, at the head of his third campaign as a leader, has been chased by questions about the poor NDP surveys and his future since the campaign began.
He retreated, arguing that sending NDP parliamentarians to the House of Commons in a minority government will keep the next government under control and “improve people’s lives.”
On Friday he remained in his decision not to activate a federal election before, even after tearing The supply and trust agreement rises He had signed with the liberals of Trudeau.
“I could not bear the idea of Pierre Poilievre and the conservatives who formed a majority government,” said Singh.
“I knew it was going to be bad due to its cuts, due to division, due to the things they wanted.”
Singh rushes to point out that his agreement with Trudeau pushed the liberals to bring Pharmacare and a dental care program, policies that the new Democrats have sought for years.
Singh spent the last days of the campaign by shoring Orange’s support in the border city of Windsor, Ontario, and then in British Columbia as the party expects to maintain the official party status.
The block leader launches his group as best for Quebec
The leader of Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, has also been working to maintain the balance of power at home, with his province of origin once again demonstrating to be an important battlefield to decide the final result. The separatist party only directs candidates in Quebec and its mandate has long been acting as a voice for Quebers in Ottawa.
During the last days of the campaign, Blanchet courted the controversy when he described his role as serving in a “foreign parliament” and called Canada “an artificial country with very little meaning.”
“This nation is not mine,” he said.
The surveys suggest that the Green Party runs the risk of being eliminated from the electoral map of Canada, but the co-leader Elizabeth May has said that he hopes that the greens can not only keep their two seats in the House of the Commons, but also grow.
The first results are expected to resort from the Atlantic provinces just after 7 pm and 7:30 pm et. Most votes will be counted after 9:30 pm et, even ontarium and Quebec. The last section of votes will come from British Columbia and Yukón from 10 pm et.
You can verify when the centrals in your region close here.
Approximately 7.3 million Canadians already voted in advance, according to Elections Canada.
You can see the special electoral coverage of CBC from 6:30 pm et.
