The Liberal Party of Canada will announce on Sunday the successor of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as head of the party and head of the country’s government amid a commercial war with the United States that could paralyze the Canadian economy.
The next prime minister will have to negotiate with the president of the United States, Donald Trump, since he threatens additional tariffs in Canada and can soon face opposition conservatives in a general election.
Trudeau announced in January that he would resign after more than nine years of power as his approval index collapsed, which forced the ruling liberal party to organize a quick contest to replace it.
“Is it ideal in a circumstance of bilateral crisis for us? I guess no, ”said Drew Fagan, professor at Mock School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. “But on the other hand, the process is developing at the national level as it should.”
The former central banker Mark Carney is the favorite, with the largest number of endorsements of the party members and the largest amount of money raised among the four liberal candidates.
Around two thirds of the Trudeau Cabinet returned publicly to Carney, and a main survey at the end of February showed Carney with 43 percent support among liberals compared to the 31 of the sale of her main rival, the former Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland.
Freeland has promoted his experience negotiating with Trump during his first term, but has fought to differentiate Trudeau after being one of his most loyal supporters for years.
She left her government in December after Trudeau tried to replace her, and she criticized her government’s expense policies.
A victory for Carney, 59, would be the first time that a stranger without real political history has become Canadian prime minister.
Carney has said that his experience as the first person to serve as governor of two central banks, Canada and England, meant that he was the best candidate to deal with Trump.
Some 400,000 liberal members were eligible to cast their votes for the party leader. The party will announce the first round of results around 6:30 pm (2230 GMT).
During the campaign, Carney said he supported retaliation in dollars for dollars against the United States and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has repeatedly complained that the growth of Canada under Trudeau was not good enough.
The perspective of a new beginning for the Liberal Liberal Party, combined with Trump’s tariffs and their repeated teasing to Annexar Canada as state 51 of the United States, led to a remarkable rebirth of liberal fortunes.
‘Rally around the flag moment’
At the beginning of 2025, the party followed 20 or more points, but is now statistically linked to official opposition conservatives in several surveys.
“There is a meeting at the time of the flag that we would never have predicted a year ago,” said British Columbia University Professor Richard Johnston.
“I think it’s probably true while we talk that liberals have been saved from oblivion.”
Regardless of who wins, the next prime minister has important decisions to make immediately. The minority liberal government can face a vote of trust when Parliament is reunited at the end of March, which potentially triggers an election.
Therefore, he or she can decide to call an immediate choice, avoiding the discomfort of having to put together a cabinet. An election should be called no later than October 20.
However, surveys do not indicate that neither liberals nor conservatives can form a majority government.
Carney could legally serve as prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons, but the tradition dictates that he must try to win one as soon as possible.
In 1984, John Turner was not a legislator when he became Prime Minister after winning a liberal leadership career.
