EVERY election, no matter how small and flawed, conveys a message about the political dynamics taking place in society at that moment, as long as both the electoral process and the electoral results are carefully observed and analyzed.
The recent by-elections in six national and seven assembly constituencies of Punjab were no exception. These seats, with the exception of National Assembly seat NA-129 in Lahore, had become vacant after the conviction and subsequent dismissal (as per law) of some PTI-supported legislators. The Lahore NA seat fell vacant after the demise of Mian Azhar, a senior PTI leader.
The PTI had decided that since it did not consider the conviction and disqualification of its legislators legitimate, it would boycott the by-elections, except the Lahore seat, which did not fall vacant due to the disqualification of the incumbent.
NA-18 in Haripur was, unlike the other 12 constituencies located in Punjab, part of KP and had fallen vacant after PTI MNA and leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Omar Ayub, was convicted and subsequently disqualified. The elections in the constituency were also not boycotted, but it is not clear whether the party granted an exception to this constituency because it was located in KP and therefore felt more confident of winning this seat.
This constituency turned out to be the only one where an intense contest was observed and the voter turnout of 42 per cent closely coincided with the 45 per cent in 2024. Although television reports on partial constituency results indicated a very close contest between the PTI and PML-N candidates, who had been exchanging the first and second position for quite some time, it was the PML-N candidate who finally won, with a huge margin of about 40,000 votes. The same candidate had lost to the PTI candidate by a margin of 80,000 votes in 2024.
Among the constituencies boycotted by the PTI, NA-185 in Dera Ghazi Khan was probably the only one where a lively contest was observed. Apparently, it was possible because two traditional rival tribes of the area, the Legharis and the Khosas, were fighting each other.
Mehmood Qadir Leghari, as an independent candidate, had secured over 49,000 votes and came second to PTI’s Zartaj Gul in 2024, but he almost doubled his tally to 93,000 as a PML-N candidate and won the by-election. PPP’s Dost Muhammad Khosa, who had secured over 26,000 votes in 2024, also increased his votes to over 39,000 in the by-election as the runner-up. As voter turnout was about 33 percent compared to about 50 percent in 2024, it appeared that PTI voters had at least partially abstained in this race.
In the remaining national and provincial assembly constituencies, PTI voters effectively boycotted the by-elections as voter turnout plummeted to an average of 28 percent in 13 constituencies, which is half of the 56 percent turnout in 2024. PML-N candidates increased their votes in 13 constituencies from 698,459 or 27 percent of the total votes polled to 957,945 or 64 percent of the total votes surveyed, an increase of more than 37 percent.
Fortunately, the by-elections passed off without any incident of major violence but, as usual, there are allegations of electoral rigging by unelected candidates, mainly in NA-18 (Haripur), NA-129 (Lahore) and NA-185 (Dera Ghazi Khan).
Unfortunately, the electoral process in Pakistan does not enjoy much public confidence. However, it is difficult to judge the fairness of the recent by-elections, as no evidence of alleged fraud has been made public. Therefore, an analysis of the results of the by-elections can be carried out based on the official results.
It is difficult to comment on the fairness or otherwise of the recent by-election at this stage.
The most interesting contest took place in NA-129 Lahore, in the heart of Punjab, where future decisive electoral battles will be fought. It was surprising that a close contest was not witnessed in this constituency where only 19% of voters turned out compared to 54% in 2024. It appears that PTI voters had decided on their own to boycott the by-election, even though a PTI-backed candidate was in the field.
The PML-N candidate won the election with a comfortable lead of about 34,000 votes, securing around 61 percent of the total votes polled. The same PML-N candidate could only get 34% of the vote and was defeated by a margin of about 32,000 votes less than two years ago. There is a lot of room and need to analyze this change.
The key question remains why PTI voters did not turn out to vote or why the party failed to mobilize them even though its candidate was in the race. Are voters disillusioned with Pakistan’s electoral system or their party’s leadership or both? Or are they in a neutral transition zone before moving to the other side, as is a common phenomenon in such cases?
The answer to these questions may also explain whether public opinion in Punjab is undergoing a change.
Are the efforts of the federal and Punjab governments to project their performance through a deluge of media publicity having the desired impact? Is it recovery from the brink of bankruptcy and relative economic stability? Is he dominating India in the brief May conflict? Is the post-war diplomacy, which led US President Donald Trump to praise Pakistani civil-military leadership and Saudi Arabia to sign a defense pact with Pakistan, successful? Is it the almost daily inauguration of projects and programs in Punjab?
Or is it the PTI’s dismay at the possibility that its leader may not be released from prison and that the party may not come to power in the near future? Or is it a combination of some or all of these factors affecting voters’ mindsets? Election results from a single precinct may not be enough to reach a definitive conclusion and we may have to wait and watch for some upcoming races.
The author is the president of the Pakistan-based think tank, Pildat.president@pildat.org.
UNKNOWN: @ABMPildat
Published in Dawn, November 29, 2025
