Geoffrey Hinton’s message on a recent podcast about artificial intelligence was simple: “train to be a plumber.”
Hinton, a Nobel Prize -winning computer scientist, often called “The sponsor of AI,” said in June what people have been saying for years: the works that include manual labor and experience are the least vulnerable to modern technology than some other professional careers, many of which have generally been considered more respected and more lucrative.
“I think the plumbers are less at risk,” said Hinton. “Someone as a legal assistant, a legal assistant, will not be necessary for a long time.”
Even with the dramatic increase in AI and the evolution of advanced robotics, technologists and merchants are promoting qualified trades as offering more long -term job security for workers who can do what computers cannot.
Last month, Microsoft revealed a list of works that could be in danger as the progress is made.
The occupations on the list were performers, historians, customer service and sales representatives and writers. Some roles considered insurance included manual works such as roofs and rail operators, workers and painters for the extraction of hazardous materials. In the health care industry, phlebotomists and nursing attendees were also considered insurance.
As AI progresses, many manual work works in the long term.
“Automation is a low threat to these works because it involves someone who installs equipment manually, and many of those who are approaching retirement,” said Tony Spagnoli, director of tests and education for the technical excellence of North America, the largest nonprofit organization in the country for heating, ventilation, air conditioning and cooling technicians. “AI cannot replace pieces or make improvisation decisions.”
The labor statistics office agrees. IT projects that openings for work in a variety of exchanges will grow in the coming years, particularly notable as entry level openings for stagnant university graduates.
There is no shortage of exaggeration around AI for work, and although the United States labor market has begun to explode, it is little evidence of loss of employment related to AI. Even software engineers, seen as at a particular risk thanks to AI’s ability to generate computer code, seem relatively unscathed.
But for many, it is only a matter of time before the shortage of work related to AI begins to hit hard.
“Innovation related to artificial intelligence (AI) could displace 6-7% of the United States workforce if AI is widely adopted,” said Goldman Sachs in a blog post published Wednesday, while noting that the impact could be “transitory” as people find other works.
Whether it ends or not taking many jobs, the idea has been enough to push some people to reconsider their future. The Builder of Curriculums of the online platform published last month a survey of more than 1,400 adults of the generation to understand how economic pressures, the increase in educational costs and concerns about AI were shaping their professional career.
Among the key findings were that 42% of respondents, many of them university graduates, were already working or chasing a commercial collar or qualified work. Its main motivations included avoiding student debt and reducing the risk of being replaced by AI.
For Zers genus without a title, blue neck work offered a path to financial stability without the burden of student loans; And the men of generation Z, regardless of the level of education, were more likely than women to choose blue neck races.
“More university graduates from generation Z are resorting to commercial careers and for a good reason,” wrote the main professional advisor of Builder, Stacie Haller, in the survey. “Many are concerned about the AI that replaces traditional white -collar roles, while commercial works offer practical work that is difficult to automate. In addition, many graduates find that their titles do not lead to races in their field, which leads them to explore more practical and demanded alternatives.”
But AI could also come for these works. Advances in mechanical automation, from humanoid machines to specific robots of tasks, combined with AI are inventing land in humans.
“Robotics is really emerging,” said Andrew Reece, chief scientist of Betterup, an online platform that in part uses tools with AI to support professional development. “It will begin to replace the entry level work, such as driving trucks and equipment in motion, but it can take time to discover complex work.”
But there is a great gap between the improvements in robotics and a technology that can replace a human in the real world. Most AI is still mainly trained in text data, which gives little or any understanding of the real world. And robots themselves still have a long way to go.
“It is a very broad wrong concept that we are about to have humanoid robots basically replace workers. In my opinion, that is a myth,” said Ken Goldberg, president of the Robot Learning Foundation of the University of California, Berkeley. “Progress is being done at a slow pace.”
And there is a lot of space for merchants to work together with AI and robotics, leaving the most sensitive and challenging work for people who have perfected their skills for years.
The automotive industry relies on the new technology to diagnose problems with cars, but does not expect robots to replace mechanics.
“Eventually I could help diagnose a problem, but there will always be a need to test and replace automotive pieces,” said Matt Shepanek, vice president of credential test programs at the National Institute of Excellence in automotive services.
“You’re still going to need someone to perform physical action.”
