BJP’s shaky start, regional resurgence, INDIA bloc’s woes: Winners and losers of 2024 | India News

NEW DELHI: Who did the bell ring for this year? The year 2024 arrived with Lok Sabha elections and eight state assembly elections, setting the stage for a political showdown.
Contrary to predictions, the BJP faced tough competition when the Lok Sabha elections threw up a big surprise as the saffron party had to contend with a shaky majority based entirely on NDA partners to form the government. The BJP, however, turned things around in the second half of the game as it managed to win crucial state assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra respectively.
2024 can also be seen as a turning point for regional parties as they challenged the dominance of national parties and shifted the debate once again towards local issues.
Meanwhile, the future of the INDIA bloc, which looked bright after the general elections, looks bleak as the alliance shows internal cracks and rifts after failing to continue rolling the dice in the subsequent assembly elections.
Here is the list of 2024 winners and losers:

Winners

Narendra Modi

In a context of pandemic and global recession, Narendra Modi managed to run as Prime Minister for a third term.
However, contrary to predictions, the BJP won 240 seats in the elections and its allies helped it cross the 282 majority mark with a little help from the TDP (16) and JD(U).

However, the second half of the year was more fruitful for Prime Minister Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party as they managed to win the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections with a landslide majority.
Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah once again demonstrated their electoral dominance. Their strategy, led by Prime Minister Modi’s ‘ek hai toh safe hai’ speech, helped the BJP and the Mahayuti alliance achieve a historic victory in Haryana and Maharashtra. The BJP’s record performance in the assembly elections proved that the ‘Modi wave’ is not in decline; In fact, the best is yet to come.

Devendra Fadnavis

After a long deliberation, Devendra Fadnavis returned to the top post in Maharashtra after the BJP emerged as the biggest winner of this assembly election by registering its best result in the Maharashtra assembly elections.
Fadnavis was credited with the success of the BJP-led Mahayuti in the state, especially in the Vidarbha region. “Devendra is Nagpur’s gift to the country,” Prime Minister Modi had said of him at an election rally. The 54-year-old leader, with deep roots in the RSS, helped the BJP work in coordination with the organization after the Lok Sabha setback.

Akhilesh Yadav

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav managed to make a big dent in the BJP’s momentum in Uttar Pradesh despite predictions that the saffron party would match its 2019 performance, if not better, after the inauguration of Ram Mandir. The cornerstone of the INDIA block in the state, the Samajwadi Party won 37 seats and once again established itself as one of the political bigwigs in Uttar Pradesh.
The party, however, suffered a setback in the subsequent assembly, where it gave up two of its seats to the BJP. The BJP won six of the total nine seats, while Akhilesh’s SP won only two seats.

Nitish Kumar

JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar, a veteran of coalition politics, changed the script of the Lok Sabha elections after quitting the INDIA bloc despite being one of its founding members.
Despite declaring his unconditional support for Modi 3.0, the fact is that Kumar holds the key to the Modi 3.0 government by negotiating hard on some of the key issues. JD(U) expressed its opinion on some of the flagship issues such as the Centre’s push for lateral entry to senior government jobs and an all-India caste census.
At an event with Prime Minister Modi in Patna, Nitish Kumar had promised Prime Minister Modi that he would not change his mind again. This elicited a guttural laugh from Prime Minister Modi, who certainly hopes that Nitish does not change his mind again in the near future.

Chandrababu Naidu

Chandrababu Naidu turned out to be one of the most important allies of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. The last-minute electoral fix with the BJP and the NDA’s return to the fold resulted in a windfall for the TDP in Andhra Pradesh.
As part of the seat-sharing agreement between the NDA partners, the TDP was allotted 144 assembly seats and 17 Lok Sabha constituencies, while the BJP contested six Lok Sabha and 10 assembly seats.
Naidu emerged not only as a king in Andhra Pradesh but also as a kingmaker as he also seems to hold the key to the NDA government at the Center after the TDP won 16 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats.

Hemant Soren

Hemant Soren retained power in Jharkhand for the second consecutive time despite his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in a money laundering case earlier this year.
Soren’s electoral strategy focused on welfare initiatives like “Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana”, along with his government’s Adivasi Asmite narrative.
Soren and his wife, legislator Kalpana Soren, held approximately 200 campaign rallies after the election was announced.
The party demonstrated resilience despite significant obstacles. Despite prevailing anti-government sentiments, the BJP proved unable to garner enough support to establish a government.

Raul Gandhi

Rahul Gandhi began 2024 by covering 15 states, 110 districts and over 100 Lok Sabha seats in his Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0. The outreach program represented a superlative effort by the Gandhi scion, helping the Congress achieve its best performance in the last two general elections.
With this, Rahul Gandhi also became the face of the anti-BJP INDIA block and leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha.
However, in the second half of the year, Congress once again failed to make any impact. Despite the Lok Sabha advantage, the Congress lost Haryana and repeated its record in Maharashtra. Star activist Gandhi failed to change the party’s destiny even though the BJP fought against the mandate in Haryana and Maharashtra. The Congress also failed to get votes with the help of farmers and fighters who were in a direct fight with the BJP governments.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress is part of the government, but only relying on the National Conference. The NC was understood to have signed a pre-poll alliance with the Congress to help consolidate its victories in the Jammu region, where the BJP holds sway. However, the party failed to cause any significant damage to the BJP in the region.

Sharad Pawar

After an impressive performance in the Lok Sabha, Sharad Pawar’s NCP-SP has now emerged as one of the smallest parties in the Maharashtra assembly elections. In the Pawar vs Pawar battle, Sharad’s nephew Ajit emerged with a stronger position, while the veteran leader managed to secure only 10 of the 68 seats.
Ajit Pawar’s decision to introduce his wife, Sunetra Pawaragainst his cousin Supriya Sule in the Baramati seat turned out to be a setback for him, ultimately benefiting Sharad Pawar. Furthermore, Sharad Pawar has hinted that he will retire once his Rajya Sabha term ends in 2026. Does this mark the end of Sharad Pawar’s active political career?

Arvind Kejriwal

After a dismal performance in Delhi in the general elections, the Aam Aadmi Party’s efforts to make headway in Haryana also hit a roadblock as the assembly results went completely against the party.
The AAP had campaigned on the strength of its popular governments in neighboring Delhi and Punjab. The Haryana results come at a time when Arvind Kejriwal had resigned from his post as Delhi chief minister, saying he would only resume the post if the AAP formed a government after next year’s assembly elections.
While the Haryana elections may not directly affect the upcoming assembly elections in Delhi, failing to secure even a single seat after contesting almost all of them could dampen the spirit of AAP workers.

Naveen Patnaik

After being in power for an impressive 23 years, BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik lost Odisha to the BJP after his party managed to win only 51 of 147 seats in the assembly elections. The BJP also swept the Lok Sabha elections in the state, winning 20 of 21 parliamentary seats.
A key factor behind the BJD’s decline was growing anti-external sentiment, particularly directed at VK Pandian, Naveen Patnaik’s trusted aide and private secretary. Pandian, a former IAS officer, had significant influence both within the BJD and the state’s administrative machinery, often being seen as the de facto ruler.
Pandian’s status as an outsider to Tamil Nadu created resentment among the Odia population, who were increasingly disillusioned with his rule and approach to governance. The BJP effectively capitalized on this sentiment, portraying the BJD as a party controlled by an unelected bureaucrat.

Exit polls

The biggest loser of 2024 was undoubtedly the exit polls, which lost all credibility after erroneous predictions in election after election. Most exit polls had given the BJP a comfortable lead of more than 350 votes, with top pollsters averaging 371 in the Lok Sabha elections.
The miscalculation of voter perceptions can likely be attributed to factors such as insufficient sample size, tight deadlines, competition, geographic challenges, language barriers, and financial risks.
In both large-scale elections, such as Lok Sabha elections, and smaller ones, such as assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, actual results often differed from exit poll predictions, with Jammu and Kashmir the only exception.