The backdrop must be reassuring for many investors: an animated upward market, policies in favor of the companies promised by the Trump administration and a Federal Reserve near achieving a soft landing. However, the most important names of Wall Street are not so optimistic for next year.
With an alternative investment conference in Miami, this week, the Titans of the coverage funds and the industry professionals collectively reached a cautious tone about the high market assessments and the potentially negative impacts of the protectionist policies of President Donald Trump.
Steve Cohen de Point72 said he believes that tariffs and immigration repression will envive inflationary pressures and hinder consumer spending. The head of the family office and the owner of the METS, therefore, hopes that the broader market will be full of potholes, particularly in the second half of the year.
“I don’t think it’s a great backdrop in 2025,” Cohen said at the Global Alts conference of Iconnections, the week of coverage funds. “I would expect the markets to exceed the next two months, if it has not yet been overcome, and I would expect the second half to be a bit more difficult.”
The S&P 500 has just obtained a second consecutive annual gain above 20%, and the two -year profit of 53% is the best since the concentration of almost 66% in 1997 and 1998. The capital reference point has increased 3% to date, but investors, but investors had just proven violent volatility this week. An artificial intelligence competitor outside China caused a massive sale in NVIDIA and other Megacap technology names earlier this week.
Karen Karniol-Tambour, Bridgewater investment officer, said he has a neutral vision in the markets at this time due to the duality of growth higher than expected and a hotter inflation than expected.
“It’s not a good time to really get into and run a lot of risk,” he said. “You have, on the margin, it is more likely to have strong growth and a stronger inflation environment than expected, but that could change quickly, because with the amount of political uncertainty it has, it is not difficult to imagine a change in Politics really inclined in terms of the macro environment. “
Karniol-Tambour, who helps manage the world’s largest coverage fund, added that the biggest opportunity you see in public markets at this time is to rebuild fixed income allocations.
The co -founder of Oaktree Capital, Howard Marks, which is already in Bubble Watch, told the attendees that the episode of Nvidia this week is indicative of “the omnipresence of psychology and the irrationality of short -term markets.”
Marks, a respected value investor who foresaw the famous COM Point Bubble This year in the guest market.
“If you can obtain low yields of a single digit of the S&P 500 with great uncertainty and 7.3% of the high performance bonds contractually, isn’t it better?” Marks said. “Everyone should look at their holdings and try to ensure that the things they possess, that they possess, according to strong foundations and improvement.”
