Most official data continue to show that the US economy is humming, with historically low unemployment and inflation expectations still relatively stable.
However, under the hood, a division of wealth that had decreased a bit in the early stages of the pandemic era has become more marked: the upper levels of the distribution of the income of the United States, those that earn approximately $ 153,000 In annual income, they are now promoting spending by promoting the growth of the United States.
Meanwhile, Americans who are not on top face the growing financial difficulties.
The result is that the US economy may be exposed to a more acute recession if the prices of the most valued assets, such as actions, houses and cryptocurrencies, worsen.
“The fact that consumer spending is so concentrated among people who are well -off makes the economy vulnerable,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
Many households in lower revenue brackets, approximately $ 73,000 and less, probably have a job, and their salaries, in a wide average, have been largely maintained in the rhythm of inflation. However, it is unlikely that the majority owns the types of assets that have seen a rapid appreciation in recent years, Zandi said.
“For the lowest and lower media, it has been a fight,” said Zandi.
Instead, he said, they have used credit cards to maintain purchasing power.
However, annual percentage rates on those cards have not yet sunk below 20%.
“That is difficult to digest financially,” Zandi said. “So they have to continue making some quite difficult decisions.”
As a result, the participation of the general consumer debt in crime is now at its highest level in almost five years, according to data published by the Bank of the Federal Reserve of New York. Meanwhile, the proportion of credit card accounts show , according to the data.
It is a similar story for the proportion of recently criminal credit cards, which at 9% are also back in the maximums not seen since 2011.
And the proportion of active credit card accounts that make only the minimum payment is now in a maximum of 12 years, according to data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve.
Although income divisions have always been present in the economy of the United States, to the pandemic, the rate of spending growth had been largely consisting of all wealth supports.
But about three years ago, according to a 2024 Federal Reserve report, the growth of household expenses began to accelerate. The trend has persisted this year, although it is beginning to decrease a bit: anecdotally, even households that make more than $ 100,000, a level that once considered privileged, are becoming more and more options like Walmart to meet the needs of bills.
Even so, the richest American consumers continue to move away: the most recent data of the FICO credit reports show that the proportion of people with credit scores of 750 or more is in maximum records, while the participation with scores of less than 600 has begun to rise again after years of decrease.
“Payments lost in banks … have grown to the point that they are now higher than the levels prior to the pandemic,” Arkali, senior director of Predictive stages and analysis of Fico, the past fall. “Faced with continuous economic uncertainty, the increase in interest rates and high consumer prices, people continue to depend largely on credit cards for everyday expenses. This can weigh on people, especially those who are already financially distressed, and lead to greater use of the credit card and subsequent breaches in credit card payments. “
Non -predominant borrowers, who are now found in millions, face particular anguish.
“For this segment of the credit population, both the payment of payment and the debt levels have increased at a higher rate than the trends observed in the total population of phyro score and are now exceeded by the pre-pondemic levels,” Arkali wrote.
Despite worrying trends, there are no signs of an imminent crisis.
“I would say that I feel cautious optimism,” said David Sojka, main advisor to Equifax, noting that the growth of crime has really slowed down. “Consumers are being more judicious in their expense and use rates, they are handling how they are spending in relation to their means.”
But trends are clear.
“Credit card performance shows consumer stress signs,” wrote the economists of the Federal Philadelphia reserve last month, adding: “Consumers not only spend more, which leads to higher balances, but also They pay less, increasing rotating amounts. “
